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USD/CAD

  • #3,261
  • Sep 3, 2012 6:08am Sep 3, 2012 6:08am
Quoting eurgbpaud
For this week USD/CAD may test 0.9800. The direction would be decided either on Wednesday (CAD data) or on Friday (USD data). Most likely move: up.
I agree we will see a .9800 test. QE is being reiterated again, which is a double positive for CAD. Small breather, and then we may see a test as early as tues. either way, short from .9875.
  • #3,262
  • Sep 3, 2012 2:38pm Sep 3, 2012 2:38pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,263
  • Sep 4, 2012 7:13am Sep 4, 2012 7:13am
And the slug pokes along going nowhere fast LOL
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #3,264
  • Sep 4, 2012 5:03pm Sep 4, 2012 5:03pm
went long some USD/CAD at .9861, looks to have a good solid level for support. Will target .9920 area.
cheers
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #3,265
  • Sep 4, 2012 5:41pm Sep 4, 2012 5:41pm
Closed my longs on that spike 9871 +35pips
Limit buy triggered at 9855 so I am long now.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,266
  • Sep 4, 2012 7:49pm Sep 4, 2012 7:49pm
Nice spot for a long... pending QE action makes me nervous though. More comfortable adding shorts at the .9900 level, rather than going long.
  • #3,267
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:16pm Sep 5, 2012 5:16pm
Could be bumping up against the descending triangle again, maybe a third higher-low. Added a half position short at .9905. Nice round MACD signal also might be illustrating a lack of bullish momentum.

Big news tomorrow though... I think the market has accepted that QE is coming. Bad numbers should help CAD though.
  • #3,268
  • Sep 6, 2012 5:51am Sep 6, 2012 5:51am
- U/C M15 & USoil M15:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: us oil m15.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #3,269
  • Sep 6, 2012 7:15am Sep 6, 2012 7:15am
So.... definitely a third lower-high at .9910.


Adding other half position before ADP. Could be the catalyst for the break below the .9850 resistance.
  • #3,270
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:58pm Sep 6, 2012 3:58pm
Once again my take profit is barely missed at .9905... out at .9925. Can't complain about a ~60 pip day though, and we're challenging the 52 week low!
  • #3,271
  • Sep 6, 2012 6:17pm Sep 6, 2012 6:17pm
there seems to be some sort of reverse correlation btw usoil and us/cad, at the moment usoil is down but usd/cad has not responded in kind , is it possible that there might be some sort of a delayed response by usd/cad as on some occasions usoil peaked before we could see the appropriate reaction in usd/cad , wat u guys think???

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...ading_dark.gif

  • #3,272
  • Sep 6, 2012 6:57pm Sep 6, 2012 6:57pm
It may be a bit of an indicator.

Energy only makes of a small percentage of Canadian GDP though. If there is a negative correlation it is probably more to do with growth in the US creates growth in Canadian manufacturing and exports to the Canadians biggest customer.

I would be a bit hesitant to use oil price movements exclusively as an indicator of USD/CAD, but it can definitely be used for confirmation.
  • #3,273
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:16am Sep 7, 2012 1:16am
Added 5 longs
2x9855
9814
9828
9818

All TP 9925 but I may move higher.
I added more money to my account for possible move down 100 pips or more without panic closing.
I feel confident that US dollar will rebound big time.Once Euro hits 27 I expect a steep decline and Cad rise rather rapidly.
I am beginning to like this pair.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,274
  • Sep 7, 2012 8:58am Sep 7, 2012 8:58am
Last news coming soon~ BULL pls=.=
  • #3,275
  • Sep 7, 2012 8:59am Sep 7, 2012 8:59am
i love the thread
  • #3,276
  • Sep 7, 2012 9:18am Sep 7, 2012 9:18am
Quoting eurgbpaud
For this week USD/CAD may test 0.9800. The direction would be decided either on Wednesday (CAD data) or on Friday (USD data). Most likely move: up.
Well played sir.

I went long at 0.9801

I honestly didn't think it would hit this level, it was a long shot, but it hit it.

The news doesn't look too hot for bulls.

CAD Building Permits m/m negative
CAD Employment change Positive
CAD unemployment rate neutral
CAD Ivey PMI Positive

USD NFP negative
USD Unemployment rate positive

So we have bullish, bearish, bearish, bearish, bullish. +2/-3 bears win.

Seems to be holding 9780-9782 though.

Since the Canadian economy is stable enough perhaps we are seeing a flight to the Canadian dollar as opposed to the USD.
  • #3,277
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:56am Sep 7, 2012 10:56am
Canadian economy has always been relatively stable. Plus now we're starting to see real recovery in the US (housing and manufacturing).

The Canadian dollar will continue to gain as the US growth continues to bottom and increase (increase in resource and manufacturing demand from the CDN's biggest customer). The only reasons the USD/CAD will turn bullish is surprise global crisis (e.g. EU kicks out the bankrupt members, China comes in with negative growth...). Longer term as the US continues to stabilize and become a good place for the big money to grow again, I can definitely see the USD/CAD moving to pre 2002 levels. But until then...


What it means to me... .9000 isn't off the table for the next 6-8 months.
  • #3,278
  • Sep 7, 2012 11:13am Sep 7, 2012 11:13am
The pair is trading way below the Ichimoku cloud on the 4 hour chart and today broke a support level of 0.97997. I say it's probably on its way down to the lows of June 2011 in the 0.94 area. What do you think?
  • #3,279
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:41pm Sep 7, 2012 1:41pm
Quoting Rknigh2
Canadian economy has always been relatively stable. Plus now we're starting to see real recovery in the US (housing and manufacturing).

The Canadian dollar will continue to gain as the US growth continues to bottom and increase (increase in resource and manufacturing demand from the CDN's biggest customer). The only reasons the USD/CAD will turn bullish is surprise global crisis (e.g. EU kicks out the bankrupt members, China comes in with negative growth...). Longer term as the US continues to stabilize and become a good place for the big money...
Hogwash analyses.
"The only reasons the USD/CAD will turn bullish is surprise global crisis "
Just wait next week PA will climb back to 99.
You assume markets respond in solid economics funds etc.Not always.Euro is on life support supported by 2 countries basically France and Germany and yet its gaining despite of fundamentals economics etc.
PA hit 90 in 2007 in severe circumstances. Things are improving and getting better.
You go ahead short the Cad but I am buying back to 99 and higher.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,280
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:44pm Sep 7, 2012 1:44pm
Quoting MyForexDiva
The pair is trading way below the Ichimoku cloud on the 4 hour chart and today broke a support level of 0.97997. I say it's probably on its way down to the lows of June 2011 in the 0.94 area. What do you think?
We most likely see a retrace back to 99
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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