EurAnalysis

Here's a chart that I hope will continue to hold and finally break the lower yellow line. The S&P 500. Definately showing weakness and I thought for sure we're break below support today. Oh well, maybe tomorrow...

I just can't do that man, can't slap some one who's older than me, have to show some respect, please don't force me
I was long from 1.255 and took profit at 55ema on hourly, the eurjpy just went through it and then pulled back.
I was thinking to short from there but i thougt enough for today and time to go to bed. Tomorrow is another day

Well done MKA.

Obviously you're younger than I am and so your reflexes are faster than mine.

opened few longs @62 sl @53

good night

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CURRENT POSTERS WHO HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS TO THIS THREAD ARE GIVEN A FRIENDLY NUDGE WHEN THEY STEP OUT OF LINE.

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need some entry strategies, can anyone help?

i have the blue zone as s/r on the bottom and top of blue zone.
how can i capitalize knowing it is travelling in this zone?
do i buy and also sell?
do i just buy or sell?
thanks in advance
G

Can you try the updated version? Just let me know if you have problem in setting Excel and MT4. Just follow the instructions in the setting doc.

Working beautifully for me.

Just got back from dinner and whoa! That was a nice drop! too bad I didn't short the hourly 55EMA.

Can't find anything right now in the media to justify this drop.

buying here at 1.2533 tp 1.2575
support bounce

I was out walking the dog when my small scalp triggered. Am hoping it will come back to that same area again so I can ride it up nearly to your same tp! Good luck!

So we are here at 1.253.. ( another crucial support at 1.251.) So here are the charts . Before and after

Good morning everyone,

The time has arrived... the calm before the storm is upon us. Already Germany is kicking up a fuss over the ECB's alleged plan to buy 3 year bonds in unlimited quantities. A plan that would amount to Fed style QE on the short end (3 and shorter) of the curve. Draghi and his supporting council members seem to be pushing forward with it whilst the Bundesbank's president Jens Weidmann threatens to quit his position on the ECB's governing council if the ECB proceeds with the plan. Of course this is all a nice politically motivated show. Weidmann will not quit and the ECB will still stand ready to buy bonds, but at least Weidmann and the Bundesbank have made enough noise to cover their a$$ets should there be a backlash from the German public when the manure hits the fan... and it surely will.

Another driving factor in the confusion is that Spanish PM Rajoy and Italian PM Monti have declared publicly that their respective countries have already done enough to tighten their fiscal belts, so they should be able to apply for aid from the EFSF/ESM without the need for further austerity measures being imposed on them. Of course it doesn't take a genius to figure out that if Spain and Italy had already in fact implemented enough austerity measures, then the markets would not still be punishing them by continuing to put pressure on their longer term debt. In the end, it is the markets that decide if enough has been done when it comes to the cost of public debt. Nothing short of a miracle can convince me that the Troika will approve EFSF/ESM bond buying for either nation without first negotiating an MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) which is bound to include further austere measures. The ECB bond buying plan comes with conditions attached to it and one such condition is that the recipient countries apply for EFSF/ESM aid and meet the conditions of that aid package. My view is that the markets are going to have to impose far more economic pain on these countries before they come to the table on their hands and knees. As such, I don't expect any ECB bond buying program to kick in any time soon. However, the knowledge that such a program is in place for the use of such countries when they feel they are ready to apply for it, should bring some stability to the bond markets.

Other than a German 10 Year bond auction and some low impact EZ Services PMI data / Retail Sales, today should be a relatively quiet day on the economic data front. However, as we draw closer to tomorrow's ECB rate statement and press conference, there may be more rhetoric and verbal diarrhea flying around, so the exercise of extreme caution is warranted.

The sentiment this morning seem to be quite risk-offish with all assets reaching for the floor. There are many factors causing this including the EZ uncertainties, the China slowdown and possible hard landing/soft landing question, and most likely also a good time for profit taking ahead of the big ECB risk event after such a long bull run which started when Draghi uttered those now famous words "...and believe me, it will be enough"

Technically, price has broken below the lower trend line of the rising wedge I pointed out previously and is currently challenging the rising trend line from 22nd August. A further break below with a confirming candle should set the tone for an attempt at challenging the key support at 1.2460/80 area. As always, time will tell.

Best of luck today. Trade safe.

E/U Daily

good morning

Hey stranger. It's been a while since you posted anything. Hope all is well.

haha... yes i am stranger.. haha...


EURUSD UPDATE
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...48#post5984648

Good morning PT! Great morning analysis as usual

If you don't mind me adding, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 are at critical levels, 13000 and 1400 need to hold for any risk sentiment to spread through the markets today.

If DJ breaks and challenges 12970 for the third time in two weeks, it will definitely be "risk off" and I would expect a few of the currencies which move in tight correlation with US equities (AUD, NZD) to spiral downwards.

Happy Trading!

Today’s orderboard

Written by Pete Jackson
September 5, 2012 at 06:31 GMT

EUR/USD: Bids 1.2500/20, sell stops below ahead of more sell stops (model names) through 1.2475. Offers 1.2550/70 (tech res at 1.2567-100 day MA), ahead of offers 1.2590/00 and 1.2630/50 (barrier 1.2650), buy stops above.

GBP/USD: Offers 1.5890/5910, likely buy stops through 1.5915 ahead of tech res 1.5930/35 and large offers 1.5990/00 (1.6000 suggested barrier). Bids 1.5850/60 tech trendline support 1.5820 more bids 1.5800/10, sell stops below.

EUR/GBP: Bids 0.7880/85. Offers 0.7935/45 and 0.7950/60

USD/JPY: Strong bids 78.00/20 (Kampo, importers, life Ins co’s) with large sell stops through 78.00 and 77.90. Offers from 78.50, tech res 78.70 (cloud base) and more offers 78.80/00 (exporters, real money and US funds 78.93- 55 day MA), buy stops just above ahead tech res 79.14 cloud top, 200/100 day MA’s at 79.29 and 79.32

EUR/JPY: Tech supp (98.12 cloud top), 98.00/10(tech supp below at 55 day MA 97.75). Sell stops down through 97.75. Offers 98.50/60 and 98.90/00 possible buy stops just above.

AUD/JPY: Offers 80.15/25 and 80.60/70 Bids 79.50/60 and tech supp 79.30/35 (June 25 lows)

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10 (SNB), Offers 1.2025/30 buy stops up through 1.2040

AUD/USD: Offers 1.0215/25 possible buy stops through 1.0230 ahead of offers 1.0280/00, likely buy stops above ahead of 200 day MA at 1.0317. Bids 1.0190/00, sell stops below and through 1.0170 and 1.0150.

EUR/AUD: Offers 1.2320/30 (100 day MA 1.2321), tech supp 1.2240/45 and 1.2210/15

NZD/USD: Offers 0.7950/60, tech res/offers 0.7990/00 (0.8000- 200 day MA), offers above 0.8030/40. Tech support 0.7925/35 (100 day MA 0.7929) bids 0.7900/10, sell stops below

Today’s Option Expiries

By Pete Jackson || September 5, 2012 at 04:57 GMT

For the 1000NY/1400GMT cut
EUR/USD: 1.2500, 1.2530, 1.2535, 1.2550, 1.2585, 1.2650
USD/JPY: 78.00, 78.60
EUR/JPY: 97.60, 97.70, 99.00
GBP/USD: 1.5825
EUR/GBP: 0.7940
AUD/USD: 1.0250, 1.0400
EUR/SEK: 8.4000, 8.4240, 8.4390

Slightly Risk-Off this morning.