EurAnalysis

Ditto, ditto and ditto

Congrats on the excel indie. Looks very promising. GL and thanks for sharing with all.

As I see it, the Euro is entering a very significant are from a technical perspective. The pair now sits right below the major down trendline clearly shown on both the daily and weekly charts.

Should the pair pierce this down TL, then follow through the 1.2750 level, then I believe this current correction has morphed into a bona fide reversal.

Though I personally dont believe anything short of QE3 being announced and initiated would justify such a move, I realize that the powers that be (central governments, central banks, large banks, etc) just about everywhere have a community of interest in proping up this pair...so I will let the actual price action tell me what is happening.

That said, it looks to me like a good set up for a false breakout from this trendline. I anticipate that in the near future PA will break the TL hit the 1.2750, then come crashing back if/when QE3 is not announced.

Thanks to Rekon and Swiss for having taken the time this weekend and posted two very good post in the Kindergarten thread. I'd give you another vouch for that if I could!

Morning Guys
I am still holding on to my yesterday scenario.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post5979208
This morning I got another confirmation, it is 200MA (Linear Weighted) on D1.
Pretty nice holding price so far...
Keep it baby, keep it

Thx buddy. I was starting to think no one cared for it, after it was requested by many last week. I was thinking of deleting it!

Hey Swiss I only saw it there this morning myself..you & others that have planted a few gems..so thank you very much to all...good things take time to digest...especially if it is new info...I plan to have a decent scrutiny over the weekend so please don't delete anything...

No, don't delete it! I care and will learn from it. Need to find a new way of trading because fundamentals simply don't work anymore. Bad news out of Europe and the Euro goes up. So need to find a more 'logical' approach to trading.

In Canada, we call that "Indian Giving"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_giver

Mercy I hope I don’t have to start buying this old goat drinks again to encourage her... I really can’t take all this excitement…especially two days in a row...

That's Native American Indian.......not" Indian" Indian.

LOL. It's not in reference to Indians from India. It's North American native Indians and it is certainly not meant as an insult.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...u-k-risks.html

Snippet:

The European Union’s rating outlook was cut to negative by Moody’s Investors Service, reflecting the risks to Germany, France, the U.K. and the Netherlands that account for about 45 percent of the group’s budget revenue.

The ratings company lowered the outlook on the EU’s Aaa long-term bond rating from stable, according to a statement released in Frankfurt late yesterday. It also changed to negative from stable its outlook on the provisional Aaa rating for the EU’s medium-term note program.

Enlarge imagehttp://www.bloomberg.com/image/iAzXMSctCK5w.jpgGerman Chancellor Angela Merkel

http://www.bloomberg.com/image/i87B63atcj_o.jpgDimas Ardian/Bloomberg

Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor.



Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor. Photographer: Dimas Ardian/Bloomberg




The change “reflects the negative outlook on the Aaa ratings of the member states with large contributions to the EU budget,” Moody’s said.

“The creditworthiness of these member states is highly correlated, as they are all exposed, albeit to varying degrees, to the euro-area debt crisis.”

Ratings of European nations have declined under the sovereign debt crisis and Spain, which held the top Aaa rating from Moody’s between 2001 and 2010, is now on the cusp of junk at Baa3. Those same stresses have hurt the creditworthiness of EU member states that still have top ratings, thanks to their stronger economies or, as in the case of the U.K., being outside the euro region.

Risks of a downgrade to the EU’s sovereign debt rating come from a “deterioration in the creditworthiness of EU member states,” Moody’s said. “Additionally, a weakening of the commitment of the member states to the EU and changes to the EU’s fiscal framework that led to less conservative budget management would be credit negative.”

CurrencyMan:

I will explain why I call myself a fundamental currency trader.

The link to the article is to see the source of the material and what is said in their words.

Of course everyone in the world that reads it forms their own conclusions.

Let us imagine that you did not have a good understanding of the facts as compared to the words used to describe the news shared here.

You would not really know what made sense and what did not.

There is NO SOLUTION by the buying of the debt by the ECB.

If you do not understand this and many so called mainstream commentators do not then you might think it is good news and a solution.

That leads to a false PERCEPTION and not the reality so we get short term Risk On and most asset classes go up.

Being a fundamental trader is much more than reading about the news distributed. It means understanding what is said and what does not make sense and then noted so you can better understand why good news is sometimes bad news to the market.

EUR/USD moves up and down not because of just the fundamentals. It moves because of a false PEREPTION or it moves because a BIG order for inventory is placed. It moves because support or resistance lines are crossed and short term technical traders or black boxes move the prices beyond its true value.

I will stop now and allow my comments to be thought about.

In order to win in any endeavour whether you fly planes or are a heart surgeon, time and effort needs to be invested to learn.

Just imagine a Doctor who understands what the Xrays that he looks at means however he is not sure where to make the cut to reach the heart.

I would not want him to operate on me or if he was a currency trader his results could be predicted in advance.

Trading forex is a business unlike any other since you need to learn many different things including learning about yourself.

Have a good trading day.

Noooooo Swissy! Found your links in Kindergarden most helpful and have been following both them and your posts in general with interest and appreciation so please keep up the good work. Your posts along with many others on both threads are being read all right, believe me, and perhaps many of us "silent majority" are remiss in not expressing our gratitude more often (certainly I would be guilty in this regard!). So, er, I suppose that's a much belated BIG THANKS to you all and long may this little group prosper!

CB

Hi Prashant, would you mind explaining what I meant by 'under influence' below and your 'influenced by'?


Maybe it's a good idea we start using sign language to say EUR bullish with an arrow pointing to the sky/heaven instead of 'UP' next to EUR?