EurAnalysis

Looks very interesting Rekon. Will you be sharing w/instructions for it's use?

And now this for educational purposes...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bonds-...ops+to+zero%29


Once again it seems Japan has a lot to teach the Europeans and Americans of the unstoppable reality that bond markets again and again are "correct in the 'end'". As risky- and 'non'-risky-assets become more scarce (thanks to a central bank bid to monetize or collateralize any and all of it), so equity (and risk) markets become more and more distorted - temporarily suspending normal market relationships - until something triggers the reversion to reality. We discussed regime changes in detail regarding gold and bonds over the past 40 years in the past, but the US and European 'survival' tactics appear to be accelerated (and larger) versions of Japan's balance-sheet-recession-fighting game-plan. Their analog, therefore, provides defensible insight into the bond market's anticipation and equity market's inevitable confirmation that it's not different this time. The question we ask is this: "when TOPIX was at 1800, and JGBs implied it 'should' be 1000 (in 1999 and 2007) - how many people said it was 'different' then?"

Japan's 10Y JGB yield vs TOPIX - hope cometh slow and fadeth fast...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...03_bond1_0.png

US 10Y vs S&P 500 - we have seen one 'hope' era fade back to bond's reality; will it occur again?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._bond2_1_0.png

and will the German DAX (relative Bunds here) also revert back to reality?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...03_bond3_0.png

We assume the answer is 'but, but, but, it's different this time'...

Charts: Bloomberg

1. Damn straight
2. I'm betting on it
3. Ditto
4. Speak for yourself

ADD: T.O.P.

DONE!

1. Be Honest
If you’re too busy trying to protect your ego, you’ll never get rid of the fear. It will cause you to quit, because you’d rather blame something external than admit you made a mistake. The thing is, if something external caused your fear, there is every chance it will do so again – which means your fear is justified, and here to stay.

2. Journal your thoughts.
Here she goes again, banging on about journalling… http://www.roguetraderette.com/wp-in...icon_smile.gif You betcha! Writing stuff down is honestly one of the best ways I know to clarify what’s actually going on underneath the swirling whirlpool of feelings that can cloud our thinking.

Just write. Even if you don’t know specifically what the problem is, just write that you don’t know, but keep writing!! Keeping a steady flow of words coming onto the page means that once your protective, superficial thoughts are down – the “I don’t know’s”, the “it’s not a big deal’s” and all the other ego-protecting crap – once that’s out of the way the true, more authentic ideas have a chance to make their way out.

Once you confront what’s actually bothering you, you are in a position to recognise and deal with each problem/emotion as they arise in your trading.

3. Develop a process that allows you to see ALL the possibilities of a trade.

I have a mini-mantra that I tell myself when I place a trade. “You never know what’s just around the corner – anything can happen.”

This statement allows me to recognise that my trade might be a loser, but it could also be the trade of a lifetime. So many times when I was testing my method I came across a trade that I was hesitant to enter, only to have it rip through resistance and go on to be an outrageous winner. It confirmed to me that my opinion means nothing, and anything can happen. Not only can anything happen, we need to be prepared for anything to happen.

That means we need to be equally as prepared for a winner as a loser, both in our trading system and also in our head.
If you are equally prepared for your trade to be a winner as you are for it to be a loser, you’re one step closer to having a more healthy balance to your trading.

If you’re having trouble pulling the trigger because you’re terrified of losing any more money, implementing these things can help. But it’s not instant – it’s an ongoing process to achieving a healthier, more balanced way of thinking.

http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/...0120903173495/


Snippet:

ECB trumps Bernanke this week
The big event this week is the ECB meeting on Thursday and then Non-Farm payrolls in the US on Friday. In the last 10 days Spanish bond yields have risen from 6.2% to a high of 6.9% earlier today. They have since fallen back to 6.85%, but they remain perilously close to the 7% threshold level that could twist Spain's arm into accepting bailout funds and the strict conditions bail out loans come with.

However, this is the sticking point. Spanish PM Rajoy said in a newspaper article from the weekend that Spain will consider extra aid from Europe on top of its EU100bn banking rescue fund, but that he does not see any need for new fiscal conditions. This flies in the face of the ECB's argument – that it won't buy bonds of Eurozone member states unless the IMF is involved in setting conditions in return for the financial aid.

Watch out for payrolls
So there are a few things that could knock risky assets off course this week: 1, a “disappointment” from the ECB. Even if the ECB announces a new bond-buying programme with all the bells and whistles on it the market has been calling for, i.e. a yield target or a spread target with German debt, if Spain and Italy don't accept more austerity then the new programme is essentially rendered useless. If the ECB can't protect Spain and Italy then who can? Don't leave it up to the German tax payer, a poll at the weekend found that Germany is not happy with having to pay more aid to help bail out troubled nations. France isn't too far behind their German counterparts either. 2, A larger than expected Non-Farm payrolls number.

Currently the market expects a 125k rise in the number of jobs. However, if this is more in line with the 163k registered for July then it may make it harder for the Fed to justify more QE at its meeting next week.

This afternoon should be fairly quiet with the US out on holiday. There was a lot of economic data to digest today. German PMI data was the biggest negative shock. It was revised lower to 44.7 for August, down from 45.1 and suggests that Europe's largest economy is coming under a lot of downward pressure. Although this is stronger than the July reading, it doesn't suggest that the German economy is bottoming any time soon.

.l.

Do Not Listen To CurrencyMan...



Published on Sep 3, 2012 by cambridgehouseintl


http://cambridgehouse.com - Mining and entertainment mogul Frank Giustra in conversation with Tommy Humphreys - August 28th, 2012. Topics include inflation, natural resources and wealth creation. Join us Sept 27-28, 2012 for the Toronto Resource Investment Conference - http://cambridgehouse.com/TRIC12

Listen To My Billionaire Friend Frank Please. I asked him to share his views with you.

He has a Billion more than I have.

It is a good listen.

Peace Out !!!

One of the best and most enlightening interviews I've ever watched! Thank you Cambridgehouse & Mr. Giustra!
3 hours ago

http://blog.cambridgehouse.com/2012/...-macro-update/

Technicals On The Taboo Topic (Joke)

Greg Weldon’s Macro Market Update

Posted on August 24, 2012 by Cambridge House
Greg Weldon’s Macro Market Update Audio link (mp4). Weldon Financial

REady for the hobbit

http://archive.constantcontact.com/f...719773117.html

http://equedia.com/blog/view.php/The-Double-Take

Goodnight CM and thanks for the information !!!!

green Dreams !!

good morning

north ?

C.M.
Great posts.
Thank You

This week, UCAD will hit my target 1! weee... I see oil prices going up... USD not firmed up but again, its volatile for USD.. then again, how much did UCAD get affected by USD the past two weeks we have seen?

Trade well aLL!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-...ops+to+zero%29

The Swiss Faustian Bargain: Swiss Money Printing a lot more risky than the Fed’s QE3


Most recently Guggenheim Partners showed in their “Faustian Bargain”, also appeared in the FT, that the Fed would loose 200 billion US$, when inflation comes back again. Interest rates could increase by 100 basis points and the US central bank would be bankrupt according to US-GAAP. For them the Fed’s Faustian Bargain with the Mephisto “inflation”. For us the SNB money printing is a even lot more risky than the Fed’s Quantitative Easing. The graph shows where the Swiss problem lies:
http://snbchf.com/wp-content/uploads...-Not-alone.jpg
Money Printing of Major Central Banks (Source Guggenheim Partners)


The SNB’s ratio of printed money to GDP is a lot higher than the one of the Fed. In case of inflation the Fed’s losses of 200 billion USD amount “only” to 1.2% percent of the US GDP. It would imply, as Guggenheim Partners state, a bankruptcy in terms of US-GAAP. But still the Fed will be refinanced by the generous US tax payers.

The risks for the SNB, however, are eight to ten times higher: based on current FX reserves, it will cost at least 10% of the Swiss GDP,if Swiss inflation picks up and the Euro crisis will be not resolved till then.

As opposed to the ECB, the SNB only buys high-quality assets, mostly German and French government bonds. However for the SNB the assets are in foreign currencies, for the big part they are denominated in euros. FX rates move a lot more quickly than American government bond yields do. This is a risk the Fed does not have, and the Bundesbank neither, as long as the euro zone stays together.

Further Fed quantitative easing drives the demand for gold and the correlated Swiss francs upwards. Sooner or later this will pump more American money into the Swiss economy and will raise Swiss inflation. At the extreme a Quantitative Easing number XXL will bankrupt the SNB or force the tax-payer to bail out the SNB. This might raise the currently low Swiss public debt to levels similar to Germany or France.
http://snbchf.com/wp-content/uploads...hiMephisto.gif
The same applies for ECB printing and purchases of peripheral bonds: This will drive money out of the euro zone and out of Germany into Switzerland. Therefore the SNB can still hope that QE3 and ECB peripheral bond purchases never come. For the SNB these two are the Mephistos: Bernanke and Draghi, the ones who promise easy life based on printed money.

CurrencyMan,

What is this all about Gold? What is your real intention? If you wish to teach us and inviting intelligent conversation, you are defeating your own purpose. Because when others having different views from yours, you dismissed them as uninformed and know nothing about gold and go educate themselves. There's nothing about gold is a conundrum magically concealed in Pandora box or is there?

That's is fine for you to assume that everyone here behind the screen are some Tom, Dick and Harry with intellectual level not up to your mark. Because there's no way for you to know if I was a business owner or a mining company owner. But let's be courteous here without the condescending remarks because they don't share your view or give in to what you want. I can see you have been trying so hard, almost looks looks like a bitter fail salesman.

I asked you questions in previous post but you never answered a direct question instead copy and paste what she says he says and replies in your email from someone else. Maybe you don't know the answer at all or the questions were not intellectual enough to deserve a reply. I think everyone here knows the fear of inflation then hedge it with gold. I hedge it with import goods with prepaid orders, invested in land and properties but how do you know that? Yes, you don't. Gold is not the only HOLY GRAIL.

Are you shilling for those selling gold or maybe of your own or what is the agenda? Are you under influence? If so, don't post as we shouldn't drive. Don't be a messenger if we don't know what we are delivering.

I made a couple of posts jokingly but I guess you don't get it. Also we shouldn't make mocking remarks about others shorting gold 'even the seal is laughing or smiling'. I took that as joke but with your following replies to others it wasn't funny anymore. Let's be sensitive but not thick skin or imposing our views upon others.

I apologize if my conclusions were wrong but it came off as how your posts presented itself.

P.S. I can't write with pompous wordings and sentence to conceal what I actually want to say and more importantly admiring my literature. If you know what I mean

P.S.1. You are only seeing this reply because you are not on my ignore list

EURO Strength Excel Indi is now available with instructions. My main objective is to remove all junks and multiple pairs from my MT4 which I don't trade.

This indi is light and you will get Real Time Visual Dashboard without compromising your systems RAM, CPU etc.

Posted in the Kindergarten