How honest and reliable is data on the economic calendar?

It may not matter much for the actual trading, because we trade on whatever data is given on the economic calendar.

These are more of a curious question:

1) Who made the forecast on the economic calendar?

2) Can governments and institutions cook the book for their own interest? I'm quite skeptical for the data to be precise and reliable.

Thanks guys.

1) economists (economists aren't traders)

2) yeah they cook it by legally re-wording political jargon

hello crucialpoint,

I thought you left the FF.

Anyway i am writing you for my appreciation for the below thread you started.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=215432

The ultimate best thread i have ever read on FF and everytime i feel discouraged or down i go to this thread and read it out again and again.
Very inspirational and motivational thread.

And i hope to learn more from you.
Thanks for changing my mentality towards trading.

I have to agree with CrucialPoint, the forecasts are determined by "economists" and I for one do not listen to a word they have to say. For a while it has been debated whether or not governments adjust the figures slightly or change certain info. I still believe there is insider trading before the data is released. Well that's my 2 cents worth.

Have a great day

This discussion reminds of a continuing argument with an economic student friend who claims that 1) if he wanted to trade he would've done it far better than myself (or other traders with no academic background in economics) 2) thanks to his academic background he knows better than trading Forex...

Thanks for all the replies folks.

I knew it sounds fishy from the first time I read an economic calendar. There shouldn't be any forecast. There should simply be pure data. Too much weight is put on the forecast which I think becomes an effective, underground way to manipulate the market without any fiscal/monetary policies.

Even if we have an obviously better data compared to the previous period, it would still be considered bad by the market if the economists pick an "arbitrary" number just slightly above the good data, giving that dreadful red number.

Like who are these economists anyway? Are they the same people again and again, doing the same specific forecasting? Then Terraforce1, you're so right. That's insider trading at its best. All the economists involved in the forecast could simply collude and give a strong "surprise" number against their own forecast, while placing trade against it before hand.

If this is true, then forex is just a game of manipulation. The big guys compete and challenge themselves to see who can make the biggest manipulation (profit).

The numbers are not directly related to the well being of the people. I don't think there is a significant correlation between the USD index, the major indices, and EUR/USD rate, with the homeless rate, with the "real" unemployment rate, etc. Maybe this is what Greece has been doing prior to the crisis. They are bigger than Enron.

I also notice that the "forecast" value from various different economic calendars are not exactly the same. The theory goes that these forecast values are based on econometrics performed by economists. If the economists of one country produces one formal forecast value that represents their government. Why is it that we have different forecast value? Does it mean there are different economists working for different news provider? Try comparing the forecast value from FF, DailyFX, BabyPips, and FX Street and you'll notice that some have forecast value for some data that the others don't or have different values.

I still seriously doubt the need to forecast value other than to stir up confusion. It's not like the weather when forecasting has its value.

An obviously good news can be turned bad or good by the forecast value. Wtf? A massive jump up in GDP will still considered bad because it fails to surpass the forecast value. Nuts. Irrational. Illogical.

I'd like to very much ask the FF mods as to where they get their forecast value from.

Am I the only one here at the forum that has noticed the Forex Factory economic calendar isn't working properly today? I haven't seen anyone mention the issues it is having today. It hasn't shown today's economic data results. And I think it hasn't even mentioned some of the U.S. economic news from today. What is going on? Has anyone else noticed this but me?