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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #51,821
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:21am Sep 2, 2012 11:21am
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #51,822
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:22am Sep 2, 2012 11:22am
QE3 in a nutshell, lol:

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  • #51,823
  • Edited 11:47am Sep 2, 2012 11:22am | Edited 11:47am
Just to be clear in which part of the market are we right now. Still in the cycle which started 6.6.2010. When investors started to short the foker last summer, starting with PT who shorted it somhere around May, we had 3 corrections in our five way down into oblivion. Third correction is happening right now.


1st – brutal 970 pips. Correction was very strong, since market was still in bullish mode. 73% Strength.
2nd – 840 pips. 55% Edit: Btw, this was LTRO.
3rd – now – 500 pips – Still not able to break not even fibo 38% crap and currently standing at 35%. Loosing power, are we? Btw, my SL is above 50%.


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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #51,824
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:23am Sep 2, 2012 11:23am
When zoomed in, well, just take a look at those numbers. We are currently in a correction with relative strength at 80% and as long as we dont break 2697 on Daily, I feel safe. Thats why it looks as a strong move when zoomed in. 80% correction is very strong one and close to reversal.

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #51,825
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:27am Sep 2, 2012 11:27am
Just a reminder and something to think about: Looking at seasonal price activity, summer research study shows that the U.S Dollar tends to decline in August. This seems to be holding true so far this month. As traders we need to make sure this is taken into account as part of our short-midterm analysis.

Study also shows that 8 out of the past 11 years, the dollar fell against the Euro in September as well. A matter of fact, dollar weakness was the dominant trend against most majors in September. Just something to ponder as we begin to look at next month. The trends may not apply this year as we have the on going Euro crisis, but you shouldn't rule it out altogether. If you're a day trader it doesn't matter which direction the market moves, just as long as it does.

Hope this has been informative.
  • #51,826
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:29am Sep 2, 2012 11:29am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
When zoomed in, well, just take a look at those numbers. We are currently in a correction with relative strength at 80% and as long as we dont break 2697 on Daily, I feel safe. Thats why it looks as a strong move when zoomed in. 80% correction is very strong one and close to reversal.

T
How does one decipher this mumbo jumbo chart with wave height and such?
Thanks buddy!
  • #51,827
  • Edited 11:34am Sep 2, 2012 11:33am | Edited 11:34am
Quoting Gofer Pips
All articles are very recent, and I post as a counter to gold bulls because without bears also, there is no tradeable market.
Enjoy!


Gold Heading to $700: Author Sees “Impending Collapse”
**There is a 5 minute video/interview with author

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily...124847501.html




Snippet:[color="Blue"]The...
yes rightly said so.

In INDIA the headlines hit by times of india - demand fell to 181 tonnes, a 38% decline from 294.5 tonnes during April-June 2011, data released by the World Gold Council
finding A M S
  • #51,828
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:39am Sep 2, 2012 11:39am
Quoting Gofer Pips
How does one decipher this mumbo jumbo chart with wave height and such?
Thanks buddy!
The red lines in chart are points selected for measuring of waves. Wave statistics are in excel table. Wave heigth is in absolute numbers (So for example 1,45 - 1,25) and relative height is just relative (for example (final high-low)/(Starting high-low). Like if you are counting fibo).

Stats are always written at start of the wave. So, when at G2S is written 07/24/2012 (start of current correction) - 1,20734 is daily closing price, 0,05 is pippage (500 pips) and 0,8018 is relative strength (80%).

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #51,829
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:40am Sep 2, 2012 11:40am
Quoting Layzars
QE3 in a nutshell, lol:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMOMTtAMBI
LOL

Ain't that the truth...
  • #51,830
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:45am Sep 2, 2012 11:45am
Btw Gofer, I know it is kinda hard to decipher it, but my program is still buggy so it is kinda effort just to post it this way . Otherwise I would be posting it more often.

I am working on it, its just, I am fkin chaotic, it is very hard and I am the worst programmer ever. And Sydney is opening soon, so I wont do any more work.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #51,831
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:50am Sep 2, 2012 11:50am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader

1st – brutal 970 pips. Correction was very strong, since market was still in bullish mode. 73% Strength.
2nd – 840 pips. 55%
3rd – now – 500 pips – Still not able to break not even fibo 38% crap and currently standing at 35%. Loosing power, are we? Btw, my SL is above 50%.


...
1st was 1050+ pips from 1.3150 to 1.424.. in a month alone

But further move from 1.263.. to 1.349.. was capped by 38.2% of long wave down ( 1.49 to 1.263 )
finding A M S
  • #51,832
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:51am Sep 2, 2012 11:51am
Quoting prashant7
1st was 1050+ pips from 1.3150 to 1.424.. in a month alone
But further move from 1.263.. to 1.349.. was capped by 38.2% of long wave down ( 1.49 to 1.263 )
Stats are from Daily closes. Trying to ignore the noise .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #51,833
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:55am Sep 2, 2012 11:55am
I am gaping down.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #51,834
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:55am Sep 2, 2012 11:55am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Stats are from Daily closes. Trying to ignore the noise .

T
That's great to hear . have to learn hard and sit tight to view from that point ( ignoring Noise )
finding A M S
  • #51,835
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:56am Sep 2, 2012 11:56am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Yup! The bigger concern is effect from China slowdown and India, which could really push this thing and AUD effect. These mining stocks can foretell direction of gold. If they don't make the money.......what is motivation to mine?
They only make less profit with current economic conditions. The yearly still shows profit worst is to break even. The real motivation is to continue operation to BE due to the tremendous amount of investment in heavy equipment, licencing, land, levy, infrastructures, skill labor, exploration etc. There's no easy out to cease operation. It's cheap to produce coal in Australia and partly Asia due to open pit operation and relatively high calorie coal which fetch good price. Unless the world really in crisis, no one is buying the whole things will collapse - default.
  • #51,836
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:57am Sep 2, 2012 11:57am
Quoting prashant7
That's great to hear . have to learn hard and sit tight to view from that point ( ignoring Noise )
Nah, its just mumbo jumbo. This was the easiest way to filter up intraday volatility from my calculations.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #51,837
  • Sep 2, 2012 12:00pm Sep 2, 2012 12:00pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Btw Gofer, I know it is kinda hard to decipher it, but my program is still buggy so it is kinda effort just to post it this way . Otherwise I would be posting it more often.

I am working on it, its just, I am fkin chaotic, it is very hard and I am the worst programmer ever. And Sydney is opening soon, so I wont do any more work.

T
It's cool. Most brilliant minds are chaotic. I was trying just to correlate currency chart to excel chart and values.

It looks like you are creating like a fib using what you call a wave. What timeframe are you using, and what are you defining as a wave? It looks like your wave cycle is higher high to lower low. So what are you defining as correction?In other words how are you determining or defining a correction forward looking. How do you decide it has reversed trend for correction?
Why not use just fib tool from MT4 with your own defined levels?

I think maybe I am too stupid to get that brainiac stuff!
  • #51,838
  • Edited 12:15pm Sep 2, 2012 12:00pm | Edited 12:15pm
Looking ahead to next week's PA and some key levels to watch for. One must take into consideration the 10 year seasonal behaviour of the U.S dollar in September.

On the upside: A break and close above 1.2630 this week will open the door to possible uptrend to a pivotal PA area at/or around a previous POC area at 1.2734. If this level does not hold, we will definitely IMO head to 1.3100 price level very quickly as there is no past volume, POC or value area going back 6 months, until we get to that level. Price will IMO be rejected at this level on the uptrend.


On the downside: 1.25 level is key. If PA can return to close under this key price level it will head to a very pivotal high volume area at 1.2435/40 area, If this price level breaks, it would be safe to assume we will be heading very quickly through very low volume areas on our way down to 1.2325 and possibly an overshoot to a very high demand high volume and previous POC area around 1.2280/85 level.

Personal thought: Besides seasonal effects on the dollar in September, One must take into consideration that with Friday's price action, we flipped daily POC and established a new high area POC near the daily close. In auction theory, you would have to respect a high probability that price will continue to be on an uptrend as it has established a new value area POC on Friday. Although, there is still a slight possibility that price will range back down to key levels I mentioned to fill in the volume and finish out the 30 day and 180 day bell curve (Normal distribution) before possible continuation to the upside.

With all that being said, everything could change due to all the high impact news and fundies coming out these next two weeks.

Anyways, I hope this has been helpful and understandable. Just a mention again that I posted some information over in the kindergarten thread as requested pertaining to Auction market theory volume profile.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...rgarten+thread

Trade safely my friends.

Swissy
  • #51,839
  • Sep 2, 2012 12:04pm Sep 2, 2012 12:04pm
http://www.oanda.com/currency/live-exchange-rates/
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  • #51,840
  • Sep 2, 2012 12:10pm Sep 2, 2012 12:10pm
Here is a site that gives some interesting information on energy and consumption related to growth in economies and large part includes oil. So, if any of you trading oil, you might want to check it out. Blogger is a casualty actuary. I thought it was pretty interesting.

http://ourfiniteworld.com/
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