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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #51,781
  • Sep 2, 2012 9:54am Sep 2, 2012 9:54am
Quoting Crucifix
Most Active Member
Ha Ha .. sunday and free time
  • #51,782
  • Sep 2, 2012 10:03am Sep 2, 2012 10:03am
Quoting rekon67
Ha Ha .. sunday and free time
preparation for another brain sucking week
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #51,783
  • Sep 2, 2012 10:14am Sep 2, 2012 10:14am
Quoting Vtmn
preparation for another brain sucking week
EURUSD ready to crash

The EURUSD launched a sharp rally over the past few sessions and formed a very narrow rising wedge formation as visible on this H4 chart. The latest candlestick pattern formed a spinning top formation at resistance from the rising wedge formation and indicates a change in trend is imminent. Expect a rather violent break-down of price action which could lead to a 400 pip correction.

MACD has weakened drastically and has not confirmed the most recent leg up while it flirts with a break-down from bullish momentum to bearish momentum which will coincide with the upcoming crash. RSI has reached overbought levels and formed a negative divergence which points to another change in trend as soon as next week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-(1).JPG Size: 59 KB


Iinitial short positions around 1.2600 and look for potential additions to those shorts above 1.2670 as well as 1.2720.

Take profit levels below 1.2425 or ride it down to 1.2340 if you have a longer time horizon.

Edit : Weekly View : Price Yet to break the Upper Channel resistance.
(Source : FPA)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #51,784
  • Sep 2, 2012 10:19am Sep 2, 2012 10:19am
Quoting rekon67
EURUSD ready to crash

The EURUSD launched a sharp rally over the past few sessions and formed a very narrow rising wedge formation as visible on this H4 chart. The latest candlestick pattern formed a spinning top formation at resistance from the rising wedge formation and indicates a change in trend is imminent. Expect a rather violent break-down of price action which could lead to a 400 pip correction.

MACD has weakened drastically and has not confirmed the most...
I'm thinking the same Rekon, but I am not ruling out one more burst upwards before the fall. As always time will tell.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #51,785
  • Sep 2, 2012 10:21am Sep 2, 2012 10:21am
Quoting rekon67
Iinitial short positions around 1.2600 and look for potential additions to those shorts above 1.2670 as well as 1.2720.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/dowd-...Th9WmczbQ.html
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #51,786
  • Sep 2, 2012 10:26am Sep 2, 2012 10:26am
Quoting Vtmn
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/dowd-...Th9WmczbQ.html
Thanks Mate.
  • #51,787
  • Sep 2, 2012 10:29am Sep 2, 2012 10:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
I'm thinking the same Rekon, but I am not ruling out one more burst upwards before the fall. As always time will tell.
Coming week (Friday) may answer lot of If...If..If.
  • #51,788
  • Edited 10:43am Sep 2, 2012 10:34am | Edited 10:43am
PT, I know you have read what I have written, but maybe you misinterpreted. But I am pretty sure you have heard what sisse was saying.

From what Bubbles told at Jackson, QE seems more likely. The reasoning behind this is very simple.

So far, when BB was talking about QE, the main condition FED had, was worsening of labour market. I am sure you remember we were always watching NFP and unemployment rate for signs of worsening, which would unlock QE. But at Jackson speech, his rhetoric clearly changed and he was talking about stagnation of labour market as unstisfactory.

And let me quote BB here:

Taking due account of the uncertainties and limits of its policy tools, the Federal Reserve will provide additional policy accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.

Moreover, all media saw this as well. I saw it at Bloomberg, WSJ and FT.

I still think QE wont happent, but the market doesnt care what I think and according to his speech, QE is now more likely than week ago.

I have another conspirational theory here. We were talking with Wulf here, that QE will not pass, because electorate is pissed of and Obama wouldnt get reelected. But what if Romney already won and current administration has last shot to fill in their pockets?

As I say, never say never. QE still may not come, but imo market is now betting on higher possibility of QE than week ago + ECB is still in. I wouldnt bet for a fast fall.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #51,789
  • Sep 2, 2012 10:58am Sep 2, 2012 10:58am
Quoting rekon67
EURUSD ready to crash

The EURUSD launched a sharp rally over the past few sessions and formed a very narrow rising wedge formation as visible on this H4 chart. The latest candlestick pattern formed a spinning top formation at resistance from the rising wedge formation and indicates a change in trend is imminent. Expect a rather violent break-down of price action which could lead to a 400 pip correction.

MACD has weakened drastically and has not confirmed the most...
Hopefully. Otherwise it will go against all my positions. But by looking at Friday, I will not rule out another stimulus is on its way pending this coming NFP.
  • #51,790
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:01am Sep 2, 2012 11:01am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
PT, I know you have read what I have written, but maybe you misinterpreted. But I am pretty sure you have heard what sisse was saying.

From what Bubbles told at Jackson, QE seems more likely. The reasoning behind this is very simple.

So far, when BB was talking about QE, the main condition FED had, was worsening of labour market. I am sure you remember we were always watching NFP and unemployment rate for signs of worsening, which would unlock QE. But at Jackson speech, his rhetoric clearly changed and he was talking about stagnation...
I'm not betting on a fast fall, but I am betting on a very limited upside on the E/U pair combined with huge volatility in September and October.

Even if by some miracle, we are looking at this major correction as a bullish impulse (reversal), I say price still comes down first. There is unfinished business at 1.2300/20

ADD: Adding to the above, I also believe that the unfinished business will be taken care of in September as we have some key risk events ahead.

1. Buy Rumor/Sell News at Draghi Press conference
2. Buy Rumor/Sell News at FED rate statement
3. German court ruling on ESM
4. EuroGroup Meeting (Which will not satisfy markets)

Plus, at almost all time highs, the equity markets are due for a sell-off (This is traders market... traders always take profit)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #51,791
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:02am Sep 2, 2012 11:02am
Quoting Ken A
Hopefully. Otherwise it will go against all my positions. But by looking at Friday, I will not rule out another stimulus is on its way pending this coming NFP.
Attached Image
  • #51,792
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:03am Sep 2, 2012 11:03am
Quoting rekon67
Congratulations PT! It's been wonderful experience so far reading all of your posts

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Thanks for the vouch PT . And congrats on 10K posts as well . Good to see you all the time here
finding A M S
  • #51,793
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:08am Sep 2, 2012 11:08am
Quoting rekon67
Congratulations PT! It's been wonderful experience so far reading all of your posts

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Quoting prashant7
Thanks for the vouch PT . And congrats on 10K posts as well . Good to see you all the time here

Thanks to both of you

ADD: Top of page again
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #51,794
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:09am Sep 2, 2012 11:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
I'm not betting on a fast fall, but I am betting on a very limited upside on the E/U pair combined with huge volatility in September and October.

Even if by some miracle, we are looking at this major correction as a bullish impulse (reversal), I say price still comes down first. There is unfinished business at 1.2300/20
Well sry then mate, its just Rekon said E/U is ready to crash and you have agreed. Which lead me to think that both of you think it is going to crash this week. But this fkin internet, I cant see in your face, damn it. If it is that so, I am 100% with you. For me, upside movement is limited by 2745.

But now you made me think of another very important thing. And thats the unfinished bussiness. Even if bullish reversal really is starting (which is nonscence, if you ask me and I cant even believe I am writing it) we still have unfinished bussiness down there and are going to test it.

Damn, maybe they were right at eToro and it really is easy to short this foker.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #51,795
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:11am Sep 2, 2012 11:11am
Quoting rekon67
Attachment
You´ve got to be kidding me. I hope you made it in Photoshop and it doesnt come from eToro.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #51,796
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:12am Sep 2, 2012 11:12am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
...Damn, maybe they were right at eToro and it really is easy to short this foker.
T
hahaha eToro is a Cyprian broker. If they are right, it is only because there is more in it for them than for you.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #51,797
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:14am Sep 2, 2012 11:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
hahaha eToro is a Cyprian broker. If they are right, it is only because there is more in it for them than for you.
I know mate. I have used free weekend trashtalk to keep on raging about eToro. If you click like four pages back you can see it.

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
From ETORO website:

"Minimum deposit 50 bucks. Leverage 400:1. Spread from 2 pips"

"eToro (Europe) Ltd., a Financial Services Company authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities Exchange Commission (CySEC) under the license # 109/10."

Sure, this is the best broker ever.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #51,798
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:15am Sep 2, 2012 11:15am
Quoting rekon67
Yes, certainly he can refuse. But How Long? That is the question.
Will find out soon thru his policies once erected as El Presidente.
  • #51,799
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:24am Sep 2, 2012 11:24am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Hope everyone is enjoying the weekend. I have taken much time out of my wonderful weekend with the wifey and her sister , to post in the kindergarten thread. I hope you all will enjoy and that it brings value to my fellow traders. Stop talking about Gold and get over there before I delete it. See you tonight or tomorrow morning.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post5977922
No doubt a stud just wondering about the arrangement. You must be a very good manager.
  • #51,800
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:27am Sep 2, 2012 11:27am
Quoting Ken A
Will find out soon thru his policies once erected as El Presidente.
You'll be waiting a long time my friend.
I have self-respect, compassion for humankind and I am centered on my un-wavering principles. Therefore I am not political material. Politics is for sleazebags.

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