USD/CAD

Well done, Rknigh2!

9830 still holding so far, so I'm still bullish this pair.

Took a while to produce any positive pips. Should have added more at .9950, but I was a bit overleveraged from .9900.

If it consolidates and ends the day around .9850 I'll initiate a small long.

- U/C M5

Holding the Long for now. I'm a little uncertain about where the floor could be today... .9870 holding for now... Trading the range til thurs night still. 9850 should be solid until we get some Jackson Hole talk.

looks like 9930 holds well

sold here for a few pips...

I stil have all my longs initiated ... having much more fun trading other markets at moment.. on a real exchange.

I wouldn't trade now as the speech is coming. I think the market will only move in a tight range +/- 20 pips. But it does seem like a double top to me for now.

I thought the speech was still half a day away

Was able to snag another long at .9871. Originally had TP set at the .9945 resistance, but I'm out now. I'm actually leaning toward a QE announcement, but I'm not willing to gamble the speech at these price levels. Should be interesting!

I got out of one of my long trades at +20 or so but still holding another long from 9949 :x

Should it fall some more i have another order in and will patiently wait for parity and beyond.

Seems today a lot of selling was occuring on equities bringing the dollar up overall as people probably dont want to be caught long during jackson hole symposium tomorrow. Anything could happen but I dont think Bernanke will come out and say make it rain from the printers but hint some more that if things get worse they will be there. Basically more of the same rhetoric that we've been hearing for months.

I doubt he will come out and flat out say no qe3 at all. Very unlikely. The latest data isnt the worst economic data, but its not looking that great either in terms of growth for the economy. Seems we are stagnant at 1.7%.

Another penny to throw in if i may, i noticed oil usually peaks out around august and heads south into the winter. Watch out for hurricanes though as they artificially spike oil for a short time.

I'd post some charts but im on my ipad outside (cant seem to stay away!)

Happy trading!

Logic tells me that QE doesn't make any sense right now. However, I'm also from the camp that believes the Fed arent complete liars. That's why I think we hear ben give a date or specific timeline tomorrow. But I'm not willing to put my money on it

Oh if only we would follow logic!

Ben doesnt want to dissappoint the markets by cutting off their heroin, but he knows its not needed as badly this time around. Probably will still do some form of it but not as much as people would be expecting. Either way it will be interesting what happens tomorrow.

A timeline? Think of the elections, maybe it'll coincide with them in some way.

My indicators are bearish on a macro environment. I am going long from here. I understand that there will be very volatile sessions due to Ben talking, but I am leaning towards a bearish developments for the markets in the days ahead.

Well it seems the initial big drop in the pair was due to the GDP figures that came out.

The rest seems to be echo's of what Ben Bernanke said at Jackson Hole symposium.

"Bernanke reiterated his position that the Fed's Open Markets Committee stands at the ready to provide help but is not yet unleashing additional stimulus."

So no QE3 now... but it could happen later.. Probably after the elections are over.

This will only hurt the US in the long run as gas prices go up = food transportation and everything goes up with it eventually.

- Perfect entry, I wish I could sold with you.

Placed Long at 9856
I think its a good value.Looking to gain at least 75pips up
I may add more longs if PA drops lower
Added another Long at 9853

As you can see on the chart PA bottoms out at this level.

Given the markets reaction today. I think we'll continue to see a slow climb up. It would be more reassuring to hear the plan for the EU, but the rhetoric has been a pretty consistent "we will do what it takes"... which the market seems to like.

I'll be looking for my short opportunities on the USD/CAD again. .9890 tests would be ideal.

Im long @ 0.986 TP:0.9925, SL 0.982. I think there might be a recovery next week. 0.9945 resistance should still hold well due to Canada GDP And Bernanke speech. Will probably put a sell order somewhere around that resistance level.

Hi,

I’m doing a thread here on COT analysis (Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis), I thought I’ll share with you the recent COT report on CAD.

The extreme here is not as big as in AUD, but still large --> COT Index: C - 22%, LS - 84%, SS – 62%. The question is, would this extreme in the COT widen more or is this a relative top in prices. If the next COT report shows us that participants are moving away from their extreme territories, I guess that would confirm the top. One thing is for sure: base on COT analysis, the picture now is more bearish than bullish.

All the best,
Dunstan

For this week USD/CAD may test 0.9800. The direction would be decided either on Wednesday (CAD data) or on Friday (USD data). Most likely move: up.