USD/JPY Discussion

Hello,

In my humble opinion, USD/JPY have a better chance to go down.
Reasons:
1) Very fast drop a Aug 17-Aug 21
2) Rising is quite slow, making deep pullbacks
3) JPY was rejected from Fibo 38 % retracement (and from higher channel border, too)
If JPY will break recent top, I think next resistance will be 78.96 level
Let's wait and will see

Happy trading,
FX-Analyst

thanks for your view, for intraday trading you might be right.
Would argue with point 3 together with the bear flag development (points 1 and 2 less relevant imho).
Possible flag-break around 78.58 would signal....

http://charts.mql5.com/1/8/usdjpy-h1...trades-plc.png

We possible see this, otherwise it could going short directly.

Another opportunity imo..added more to my long (short the yen) earlier today because of yet more validation of the daily chart via what i am seeing on the new 240min here..raised floor although speculative looks good to me.
More on this at my blog post http://mlatrader.com/?p=64

- Just wake up and find something interesting for dollar pear.

Hello MPT ! Thank you for your criptic message. I tried to find by myself what you wanted me to discover in drawing non linear line rather than straight line. Here I give my results. It indicates me more Yen strength to come. Now, you owe me to show what you initially intended to indicate. It's your moral duty now.

My bad. With a zoom in we have a support (see below).

This last one is complete and may be more clear.

More (?) clear... haha. I'm lost.

I like the idea of circular trend lines though. I just don't know how to extract any information from it yet

It's up to Mpt to give us some explanation. I'm begining in this game but think that Mpt is right. We can get complementary infos with nonlinear trendlines. It's clear with a big zoom see below that there is a support at 78.50 But if it breaks, it will enforce what was my first analysze with linear TL : more strengthness of the yen to come.
A special zoom for you Rknigh2

OK, what I have here seems really silly ( not only to you but also very much to me ). I posted another similar comment on the GJ thread yesterday. Similar, but not the same.

If you look at UJ ( and GJ ) you'll see that the straight TLs you draw at support/resistance often seem to need changing. This has been the case for some months now. Effectively we are seeing rounding bottom formations on both. But not only is the overall bottom being affected by this rounding, it may be seen in the recent moves.

What I have noticed is that straight TLs work OK, but only in those parts of the chart between the curved TLs.

In MT4 it's not possible to draw elipses/curves etc so you're stuck with drawing circles. And they move when you move the chart. But you can get a good enough match to see what's roughly happening.

I searched for info on curved TLs, but not much comes up ... although there is a thread here on FF in which they're discussed.

Just like "normal" TLs, the curved ones allow price to stay contained within channels ... albeit curved.

By way of example, when UJ last week hit the Daily 100 sma and dropped, it also bounced off one curved channel and found support at the one below.

Yeah, I know it sounds weird. I don't get it either. All I can do is tell you what I'm seeing.

Based on this premise, as long as UJ doesn't fall down through current support, and it can get above the previous resistance it should have a reasonably clear run up to 80.6, being a double top and also the very long term descending trendline from 101.4 that it last attacked in March of this year.

- U/J M15

added long @ 78.50

UJ M15:

Hey there Bear.....hows things going? I've been trying to build a long term plan with this pair for a while, but until we get some proper weakening on the Yen, it's not going to fly.

Perhaps Bernanke yappin tomorrow will will be the catalyst to set this thing in motion......I think it needs to EZ to get it's shit together first as well though....and there's no hope of that in the foreseeable future!!!

Hi realjumper, long time no see

Doing fine still countering as always, no day trades for me atm, building some long term longs in EA, EJ en UJ. First 2 doing fine UJ still bottom fishing....
Searching a higher low after 75.60 need it to stay above 77 though at daily close which I think it will.
Know and understand your stance, but I know myself too, can't run after them only against them
Longing to see each other more regularly in this thread would be a nice sign

Note the bullish closes on all bars at support the past few hours.

http://mlatrader.com/using-bar-close...-entry-on-jpy/

added long @ 78.4

- U/J M15 before & after & outlook for H1 time frame:

- It seems like all fundamentals doesn't help U/J bulls or set to take away our money. So let's position ourselves as bears and see our results.

-GL.

I feel one day at midnight JST or Oceania morning or whenever the market is quiet and Japan is sleeping, this pair will dive for over 300 pips like 3/17/11 and 5/6/2010. It seems like the fear of BOJ intervene draws a lot of buyers so far and funds are ready to hunt them all. I bet BOJ won't do anything at this level.

- Great understanding . Add to that I'm 1000% sure before they intervene, U/J will make another all time low, to make retailers like you & me homeless.

- Btw, I hit your profile and found that you're from Japan and I think that Japanese investors who capped the rally from 84.00 mark, and I also think that Japanese investors sell U/J everyday calmly besides me . Do u think this information is true?

- Thanks in advance.