EurAnalysis

http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...Swwqmiu9TA&t=1

I had also faced the same issue on MT4 live account but not on TS2 platform and still the gap didnt fill up but no message from them

Really depends on what you mean by confirmation of reversal? If one waits for confirmation, one will be trading as 90% of retail investors in using lagging indicators and missing opportunities to sell/buy at extreme value. Don't follow the herd. By the time the herd jumps in because they are waiting for confirmation, it will be towards the end of the move. Just my op.

btw- I do trade both long term and intraday but ALWAYS buy/sell at value. If you buy/sell at value, most of the time PA will move in your favor but if PA goes against you, you have a better chance of limiting your losses oppose to someone who is trading using lagging indicators for entry/exits. Again just my op.

Harpe. Good to see you. Hope you're doing well. haven't seen you often these days.

I second that op.

Italian 5 and 10 year bond auction results due in about 30 minutes. Seeking up to 2.75 Bln in 5Yr and up to 4 Bln in 10Yr.

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120828173062/

Investors are holding breath ahead of the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Reminiscent of the forum held in 2010, investors are full of hopes that Chairman Ben Bernanke would give some hints on the outlook of the Fed's quantitative easing policies. Not wanting to pour cold water but we do not expect much surprise to come from the symposium, mainly due to the fact that many thoughts of policymakers have already been disclosed in the minutes for the August FOMC meeting. We expect the rundown of Bernanke's speech would similar to those made in past years, including discussion of the economic outlook and Fed's policy responses.

He would also elaborate more the various options of easing tools, with pros and cons of each being addressed.

In 2010, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke talked about various easing measures and hinted about QE2 at the Jackson Hole symposium. Therefore, as the global economic outlook continued to deteriorate and the US job market remained sluggish, the market awaits to get some indications for the Fed's future actions, especially the likelihood and timing of QE3, at the event will be held again this Friday. In our opinion, Bernanke's speech would contain little hints on QE3 as the Fed has not yet ready to provide further unconventional measures soon. This can be seen from recent debates among Fed presidents. Indeed, the US economic data received since the August FOMC meeting was largely mixed and improved financial conditions have given the Fed more time to think about the case more thoroughly.

Meanwhile, the imminence of ECB's reactivation of bond purchases has also reduced the urgency of any immediate easing.

We expect Bernanke would evaluate the pros and cons of various easing tools discussed by the Fed although many of them have been mentioned in the August FOMC minutes. For instance, concerning QE3, many members believed that 'such a program could provide additional support for the economic recovery both by putting downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and by contributing to easier financial conditions more broadly. In addition, some participants noted that a new program might boost business and consumer confidence'. On the flip side, there are 'concerns about the effects of additional asset purchases on trading conditions in markets related to Treasury securities and agency MBS, but others agreed with the staff's analysis showing substantial capacity for additional purchases without disrupting market functioning'. Moreover, 'several worried that additional purchases might alter the process of normalizing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet when the time came to begin removing accommodation. A few participants were concerned that an extended period of accommodation or an additional large-scale asset purchase program could increase the risks to financial stability or lead to a rise in longer-term inflation expectations'. Other tools he might talk about include flexible asset purchases, cutting interest on reserve, forward guidance extension and the BOE-type funding for lending.

While we expect no surprise from the Jackson Hole forum, we retain the view after the August minutes that the Fed would announce additional monetary measures in September. What we expect to hear is a change the language guidance (e.g. indicating that exceptionally low interest rate would be warranted until 2015) in the policy statement.

CurrencyMan:

Outside of the box thinking might give us a better idea of what Bernake might say on Friday. All the issues are clear as was summarized by the good article we just read.

For myself I would ask what will Bernake's intent be ? What end does he want to achieve ? He will most likely have the most influence on his speech. He knows what the markets want. He knows what the other FED members want. He knows what the politicians want.

The big question for us to think about is what does Bernake want ?

I am going to post a link to the FX Pro comment this morning since I think Bernake will factor that into his decision since he will be meeting those decision makers as well and you can be sure there will be serious arm twisting on both sides.

Daily Forex BriefLondon: Thursday 30th August 2012

The gloves are off

The big show in town next week is the meeting of the ECB where it is expected to outline in more detail its plan for doing "whatever it takes" to support the eurozone. Ahead of that, the ECB head, Draghi, has written in a German newspaper (Die Zeit), standing firmly against German opposition to plans to buy further bonds in a more structured format, stating that in order to do its job it is required "to go beyond standard…tools". The impact such measures are likely to have on peripheral yields means that the result of next week's meeting will be crucial for the single currency, determining whether the up-move seen on EUR/USD during August is likely to be sustained.
http://webr.emv2.com/fxpro/fxpro-newDB.gifhttp://webr.emv2.com/fxpro/daily-briefDB.gifhttp://webr.emv2.com/fxpro/marketnewsDB.gifhttp://www.fxpro.com/sites/default/f...rf%2024h_0.png

Let's air our thoughts and see what the consensus is here as to what Bernake might do ?

Have a good morning and a good day. Sometimes we can think too much. Remember what the anticipation was before the last Draghi speech. This might be different since this is a special event and there are major issues set for some kind of resolution in the first 15 days of September. There are two many players and agenda so agreement is unlikely however Bernake still has the hammer and the power.

We have our own hammer here and I like ours much better.

Thx for the post CM. Would like to put in a request. When you post your own words in the middle an article, would it be possible if you highlighted your title as shown above. It would stand out and we can read your views on the particular subject. This would be quite helpful. Just a request. TY

Sorry i was under the impression that risk on risk off is something that would continue (once set in) for atleast that day. If not longer.

I did not realise it was something that lasted for short bursts through the day.

Thank you, for setting that straight, I'm still trying to get to terms with how to trade with new information and IMO having time frame for how long market is effected by "indicactor" is paramount to any trading system/trader.

e.g. Certain news will effect for weeks in some cases
Technical data is based on time frame they are being used in
(effect for hours or the day usually)
etc

But now unsure how to determin how long risk on/off will last. If it is on until next big news, or simply a matter of quick injection, or until comidities start to range???... time to research a little more.

I second that. Some of the posta are extremley long and it helps break up the information it bite size chunks.

Morning,

I may go with you. I am still looking for second broker and FXCM wins the race so far.

T

Yes I am doing very well...TY...Just trying to concentrate more on trading so thats why not posting much

Support: 1.2520-25 ..... 1.24975-1.2508
Resistance: 1.2560-625 .... 1.2569-1.2575

It's all driven by a combination of investor/trader sentiment and the release of economic and political news/events. Can also be effected by natural disasters that may effect economic activity such as earthquakes, hurricanes, civil or military conflicts, tensions between countries that can lead to conflict, etc.

There is so much info to consider, that one really needs to be tuned in on all the underlying influences at all times before one can come up with a mid to long term sentiment in these markets.

Trading intraday, all one needs to know is what is happening right now.

Risk-On/Risk-Off can in fact last for days or even weeks, however it does flip. For example you could see two to three weeks of risk aversion with one or two days in that period where the market becomes temporarily excited and gains some risk appetite. This blip in appetite is what is partially responsible for small corrections in a trend.

PT. Did you see the bond results yet?

Talk that auction went well but nothing official coming across the wire.

Italian 10 Year bond Auction results... Sold 4bln @ 5.82% vs 5.96% last with a cover of 1.42 Not bad but nothing to jump with joy about

Italian 5 Year bond Auction results... Sold 2.5bln @ 4.73% vs 5.29% last. Much better than the 10 Year. It is shorter dated after all.

ADD: For those of you who have a Twitter account, please follow me (@PipTrapper) for quicker notifications of important news results.

Yep the wires were very slow today. The Tesoro Italiano's website doesn't have the data yet. I got the info from CNBC TV

man, shorting this at the moment is definitely counter trade and picking tops.
No sign of going down.

sorry for the rant, it's been choppy

You are really ranting . Wait till I start.

edit: btw, who are you talking to? Yourself? . Thats what I call, shot in the dark.

T

pinbars all around not good for trading (IMO).