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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #50,661
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:09am Aug 29, 2012 4:09am
Draghi unscheduled comments being released to live newswire albeit German news article interview. This is the reason for the move up.
  • #50,662
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:09am Aug 29, 2012 4:09am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hehe, I am skinhead. I am trying to pull them out, but luckily, they are too short. Instead, I use this.

T
  • #50,663
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:11am Aug 29, 2012 4:11am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2012-08-29 at 5.01.06 PM.png Size: 139 KB


personally, i will short after the pink neckline is broken..

now potential green accelerated trend line

no reversal pattern.. market will continue to test upside
  • #50,664
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:19am Aug 29, 2012 4:19am
Italy Sells Eur 9bln Of 6 Mth BOT At 1.585%

Sharply lower yields from 2.45% at July’s auction and the lowest since March. Cover was up to 1.69 from 1.61
EUR/USD’s getting a small boost on the result to a fresh day’s high of 1.25735.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/0...-bot-at-1-585/
  • #50,665
  • Edited 4:36am Aug 29, 2012 4:25am | Edited 4:36am
Quoting mka_78
Italy Sells Eur 9bln Of 6 Mth BOT At 1.585%

Sharply lower yields from 2.45% at July’s auction and the lowest since March. Cover was up to 1.69 from 1.61
EUR/USD’s getting a small boost on the result to a fresh day’s high of 1.25735.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/0...-bot-at-1-585/
I wouldn't put much weight on a 6 month auction. Wait for the 10 year... next week I believe. I'll check on that, or if anybody know, please post. Anyway, if the auction yields great results for Italy, then I expect more short covering on the E/U pair for a nice final overshoot on the correction right into waiting heavy offers. However, if the results are weak, then maybe the Vatican can bail them out coz the ECB won't be able to do much.

ADD: Surprise surprise... The Italian 10 year auction is scheduled to be held tomorrow 30th August. Here's a link to the 2012 calendar > http://www.dt.tesoro.it/export/sites...endar_2012.pdf
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #50,666
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:30am Aug 29, 2012 4:30am
Quoting kinky
Attachment

personally, i will short after the pink neckline is broken..

now potential green accelerated trend line

no reversal pattern.. market will continue to test upside
We have same view..
AM Signal Provider
  • #50,667
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:37am Aug 29, 2012 4:37am
Morning Guys...
Haven't seen many charts recently, so it's time to post one.
I am bit bored moving sideways, so my guts telling me GO SHORT.

Double top, bearish divergence on 4H, etc, etc..
My first stop loss above 1.2580, second one above 1.2600 but I will watch closely situation on chart
so if sentiment changes, I will close my position earlier...
Well, I hope to grab 100 pips... I hope hehehehe
Anybody shorting with me ?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 32 KB
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  • #50,668
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:39am Aug 29, 2012 4:39am
Quoting PipTrapper
I wouldn't put much weight on a 6 month auction. Wait for the 10 year... next week I believe. I'll check on that, or if anybody know, please post. Anyway, if the auction yields great results for Italy, then I expect more short covering on the E/U pair for a nice final overshoot on the correction right into waiting heavy offers. However, if the results are weak, then maybe the Vatican can bail them out coz the ECB won't be able to do much.

ADD: Surprise surprise... The Italian 10 year auction is scheduled to...
This was meant to be some info for the pop from today's low, I know it does not have as big effect as the 10 year auction. Trying to be helpful for the thread
Thanks for explanation

ADD: Then tomorrow we should probably see some movement once the result is positive or negative
  • #50,669
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:40am Aug 29, 2012 4:40am
the market has sideways from australian open.
is that to waiting for bernanke statement , so buy on rumor sell on this will work.. this reason to bullish for a while
  • #50,670
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:44am Aug 29, 2012 4:44am
Quoting mka_78
This was meant to be some info for the pop from today's low, I know it does not have as big effect as the 10 year auction. Trying to be helpful for the thread
Thanks for explanation
I know buddy. I was just expanding on your post. I appreciate your contributions
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #50,671
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:46am Aug 29, 2012 4:46am
Quoting mka_78
This was meant to be some info for the pop from today's low, I know it does not have as big effect as the 10 year auction. Trying to be helpful for the thread
Thanks for explanation
That was helpfull. PT just wanted to say, that 6 month bonds arent as important, because of short term draghium bull run. Draghium wont help to 10 year notes, so thats the place where we can see what market really thinks of Italian health. Imo the fact, that 6 month auction went well, just points out, that Draghium is still in the air and we should not stand in its way.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #50,672
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:47am Aug 29, 2012 4:47am
Upcoming auction results for Italy, Spain, Germany and US for this week and next week.

All times are GMT

Date / Time / Country / Auction

Aug 29 09:10 Italy Eur 9.0bn Feb 2013 (6M) BOTs
Aug 29 17:00 US Usd 35bn 5Y Notes
Aug 30 09:10 Italy 5 & 10Y BTP auction
Aug 30 17:00 US Usd 29bn 7Y Notes
Sep 05 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction
Sep 06 08:30 Spain Bono auction
Sep 06 08:50 France OAT auction
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #50,673
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:50am Aug 29, 2012 4:50am
Quoting halkins
Morning Guys...
Haven't seen many charts recently, so it's time to post one.
I am bit bored moving sideways, so my guts telling me GO SHORT.

Double top, bearish divergence on 4H, etc, etc..
My first stop loss above 1.2580, second one above 1.2600 but I will watch closely situation on chart
so if sentiment changes, I will close my position earlier...
Well, I hope to grab 100 pips... I hope hehehehe
Anybody shorting with me ?

Attachment
Hi Halkins,

I see the double top, but I don't really see that bearish divergence, as the right top is still lower. Personally I would wait for the 1.26xx to short from, or maybe if 1.276 is still holding I will short from there when I see the signal.
Thanks for the charts btw
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #50,674
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:52am Aug 29, 2012 4:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
I know buddy. I was just expanding on your post. I appreciate your contributions
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
That was helpfull. PT just wanted to say, that 6 month bonds arent as important, because of short term draghium bull run. Draghium wont help to 10 year notes, so thats the place where we can see what market really thinks of Italian health. Imo the fact, that 6 month auction went well, just points out, that Draghium is still in the air and we should not stand in its way.

T
Got that, thanks
  • #50,675
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:54am Aug 29, 2012 4:54am
can someone comment on this please
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/d...120829.en.html
The future of the euro: stability through change

Contribution from Mario Draghi, President of the ECB,
Published in "Die Zeit", 29 August 2012






From the ECB’s perspective, a strong economic union is an essential complement to the single monetary policy. Building this will require a structured process with correct sequencing. Yet citizens can be certain that three elements will remain constant. The ECB will do what is necessary to ensure price stability. It will remain independent. And it will always act within the limits of its mandate.
Yet it should be understood that fulfilling our mandate sometimes requires us to go beyond standard monetary policy tools. When markets are fragmented or influenced by irrational fears, our monetary policy signals do not reach citizens evenly across the euro area. We have to fix such blockages to ensure a single monetary policy and therefore price stability for all euro area citizens. This may at times require exceptional measures. But this is our responsibility as the central bank of the euro area as a whole.
The ECB is not a political institution. But it is committed to its responsibilities as an institution of the European Union. As such, we never lose sight of our mission to guarantee a strong and stable currency. The banknotes that we issue bear the European flag and are a powerful symbol of European identity.
Those who want to go back to the past misunderstand the significance of the euro. Those who claim only a full federation can be sustainable set the bar too high. What we need is a gradual and structured effort to complete EMU. This would finally give the euro the stable foundations it deserves. It would fully achieve the ultimate goals for which the Union and the euro were founded: stability, prosperity and peace. We know this is what the people in Europe, and in Germany, aspire to.
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #50,676
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:59am Aug 29, 2012 4:59am
Quoting mka_78
Hi Halkins,

I see the double top, but I don't really see that bearish divergence, as the right top is still lower. Personally I would wait for the 1.26xx to short from, or maybe if 1.276 is still holding I will short from there when I see the signal.
Thanks for the charts btw
Hi mka
Maybe I wasn't to precise...
The price bounced back 2 times from descending resistance line..
I called this myself "double top"... just it... my apologies
Bearish divergence isn't 100% pattern developed but it's angling down (loosing momentum)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd1.gif Size: 8 KB
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  • #50,677
  • Aug 29, 2012 5:02am Aug 29, 2012 5:02am
Quoting halkins
Hi mka
Maybe I wasn't to precise...
The price bounced back 2 times from descending resistance line..
I called this myself "double top"... just it... my apologies
Bearish divergence is on previous chart...


Attachment
It is certainly a decline until now and 1.257xx proved to hold, but maybe not for long, once 1.26xx is visited, the bearish divergence will be valid and hopefully will play out soon
  • #50,678
  • Aug 29, 2012 5:05am Aug 29, 2012 5:05am
Quoting mka_78
Hi Halkins,

I see the double top, but I don't really see that bearish divergence, as the right top is still lower. Personally I would wait for the 1.26xx to short from, or maybe if 1.276 is still holding I will short from there when I see the signal.
Thanks for the charts btw
ps...
Even this small 12-15 pips move down let me to close partially my position and shift my breakeven above 1.2580.
So I'am done for today, just waiting for what will happen...
Either I win, or breakeven
Thanks for your chart, too...
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #50,679
  • Aug 29, 2012 5:06am Aug 29, 2012 5:06am
Quoting gnomoneey
can someone comment on this please
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/d...120829.en.html
The future of the euro: stability through change

Contribution from Mario Draghi, President of the ECB,
Published in "Die Zeit", 29 August 2012






From the ECB’s perspective, a strong economic union is an essential complement to the single monetary policy. Building this will require a structured process with correct sequencing. [b]Yet citizens can be certain that three elements will remain constant. The [i][u]ECB...
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=381405
-Monti puts his opinion in abour Germany

good news or maybe not as it needs to be approved by the coalition
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=381415
Greece says technical issues left in austerity plan
From reuters.com
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/news_quote.gif Greece's government has agreed on the broad framework for nearly 12 billion euros in spending cuts for the next two years, with only technical issues outstanding, the country's finance minister said on Wednesday. "The package will be sealed next week and presented to the troika," Yannis Stournaras told reporters after a meeting between Prime Minister Antonis Samaras and his junior coalition partners to discuss the package.
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #50,680
  • Aug 29, 2012 5:06am Aug 29, 2012 5:06am
Quoting gnomoneey
can someone comment on this please
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/d...120829.en.html
The future of the euro: stability through change

Contribution from Mario Draghi, President of the ECB,
Published in "Die Zeit", 29 August 2012






From the ECB’s perspective, a strong economic union is an essential complement to the single monetary policy. Building this will require a structured process with correct sequencing. [b]Yet citizens can be certain that three elements will remain constant....
Nothing new here.. same old stuff that he and other ECB execs have been saying.

Allow me to post an analogy.

You have a car with a 50 horsepower engine (The ECB)
You need to climb a hill that starts off gradually and then about 1/3 of the way up, gets much steeper (The top of the hill is the solution to the EZ crisis). 50 horsepower (The limits in the ECB's mandate) is quite enough to get through the first part, but the steeper part requires a lot more power. Only all the engineers (Leaders of all the 17 EZ nations) coming together in consensus can upgrade your engine, and so far they cannot agree to do it until they address fuel efficiency issues (Fiscal Policy in troubled EZ nations).
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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