EurAnalysis

That is really funny and probably true in some cases. Imagine a preacher saying that. Wait wasn't that Jones ? Aw forget it just take the red pill...

No, it's too good to let it go.

CurrencyMan go to pick up the Lambo or have it delivered first day light tomorrow before it's too late

There might be no Currency tomorrow.

Good night all. It's been a fantastically busy day (NOT) and I'm exhausted

Let's see if it manages to move more than 45 pips tomorrow

G'night PT. One can only hope...

rofl

http://agorafinancial.com/temp/timestamps/z0335.gif Small victories: A judge in Virginia has ordered the release of Brandon Raub -- the ex-Marine who was hauled into a psychiatric ward for "anti-government" and Sept. 11 "truther" posts on Facebook.

Last Thursday, a Virginia judge dismissed the government's petition for involuntary commitment, saying the petition "is so devoid of any factual allegations that it could not be reasonably expected to give rise to a case or controversy."


http://5minforecast.agorafinancial.c...82712pic_2.png

"This is a great victory for the First Amendment and the rule of law," says John Whitehead, president of the Rutherford Institute -- who took up Raub's defense. "People have a right to go on Facebook or the Internet (and) say things that people might not agree with," Whitehead said. "But that doesn't mean they're crazy or should be incarcerated for it."

WSJ reports, "Today is the day for folks to get out of harm's way," warning of potential impact from Tropical Storm Isaac today. "Republicans give way to Isaac on convention," says MarketWatch.

"Jackson Hole Likely To Disappoint," says Bloomberg, referring to Bernanke's speech to financial elites Friday.
http://www.swissamerica.com/images/p...0827085907.jpg THE GOLD PLATFORM - NYSun
News that the Republican platform is going to call for the establishment of a new Gold Commission is the most encouraging thing we've heard out of the convention about to gather in Florida.
That the GOP's draft platform endorses the Fed audit is, combined with Governor Romney's confirmation yesterday that he would like to see a new chairman at the central bank, a sign that things are moving fast. All the more reason to remember that the last time a Republican platform called for a gold standard was 1952.
General Eisenhower stood on the plank for the campaign but abandoned it once in office. So one of the tasks in the campaign ahead will be to hold the candidate to the plank of monetary reform platform being erected at Tampa. It has the potential to be a transformative moment, as the Federal Reserve approaches its centennial and Congress considers whether it wants to buy in for another generation of an irredeemable dollar.

"I too am encouraged to see Republicans have added a golden plank to the party platform this year, for the first time in 60 years," said Swiss America Chairman CRAIG R. SMITH.

"But the odds of restoring honest money in a world driven by dishonest, government-created money are remote. Therefore, I suggest Americans begin to put themselves on a personal gold standard NOW, before the economic weight of our trillions in debt drag down the dollar, stocks, and bonds further."

GOLD SET FOR BEST YEAR SINCE 2010 - Bloomberg
Gold is poised to climb the most in two years as prospects for additional economic stimulus by governments from the U.S. to China stoke demand for the precious metal as a bet against inflation, a survey showed.
Gold bullion for immediate delivery may reach $1,800 an ounce by year-end, extending gains this year to 15 percent. That would be the most since a 30 percent surge in 2010.
Gold is set for a 12th year of gains as the European sovereign-debt crisis boosts haven demand amid speculation of further policy easing by central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve. The FED may also be considering a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3. Investment holdings have expanded to a record on demand for a hedge against inflation.

However...this is a great concern.

CM, I want to tell you that I appreciate very much your effort in sharing information in this thread.
It does make a different for me. Thanks.

I enjoy sharing and learning and appreciation is always nice. We are all together here thanks to PipTrapper to share and learn and have another place to call home.

Thanks for your post.

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...-gaming-system

John Ing does not write often however when he does you are in for a treat since he really knows his business. I have read him for years.

Here are some of his most revealing points...

For all the rest read it on your own if you care to...

Despite the $340 million settlement by Standard Chartered or MF Global’s disappearance of $1 billion of customer funds that were somehow co-mingled with MF’s proprietary position, economic interests have blurred the lines between the regulators and the regulated. Regulators are focusing on the big banks again as they attempt to investigate the manipulation of LIBOR, the leading benchmark that underpins at least $350 trillion of securities. Already Barclays PLC has paid a hefty fine and removed its top management, in a scandal that might involve the Bank of England. That the central bank and its surrogate bankers are so intertwined is a reflection of the crony capitalism that has become all too common in the West. Needed are structural reforms but as we have seen in America, the Dodd-Frank creation aimed at overhauling the finance system, morphed into 1,319 pages and its proposals have yet to be enacted four years later. And tellingly, no investment bank or banker was arrested or charged after the crash.

Markets have been struggling with high frequency trading (HFT) as computers have taken over. Computer or algorithmic related trading makes up more than 50 percent of the market volume and trading is aimed at more gaming than adding liquidity. We believe that high frequency trading puts the client last as institutions try to game the system taking advantage of clients’ orders. At one time, markets were held to the test that clients came first! Exchanges are reluctant to shut down these systems because of the business from the trading volume. However the $400 million loss by Knight Capital shows that even in the United States there is no control over these algo traders. Tellingly, it took one week for Knight Capital to discover the software problem. There is no question automated trading has brought gains in price efficiencies and liquidity, but the exchanges have become too fragile and too big to fail. Regulators do not have the financial arsenal to keep up with today’s software. So what to do? First there should be a delaying mechanism and software must undergo testing and at a minimum the same regulatory scrutiny that personnel and sales personnel must undergo at least once a year. Add in rules requiring them to hold more capital.

http://imagesize.financialsense.com/...ld-cartoon.jpg

Who Can You Trust?

In the past we have found a symbiotic relationship between central banks and government. Indeed, with its bond buying, the Fed and soon the ECB has supplanted the private sector as a price setter. Lately this relationship has benefited government at the expense of the private sector. President Reagan established a working group known as the “plunge protection team” (PPT) which consisted of members of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, SEC, and others whose purpose was to intervene in the markets at the appropriate moments to prevent significant volatility. This “plunge protection team” is believed to have used the banks to purchase stock index futures in the crash of 2008. The idea was to give the public, confidence but in fact reflected the government’s cynical view that markets can be manipulated for their own benefit. And, we go further back to 1985 when the Plaza Accord between the governments of the United States, Germany, France, and Japan agreed to devalue the US dollar in relation to the Japanese yen and German mark in order to give a boost to US exports. The US dollar fell by more 50 percent in two years. Japan never recovered from that serious recession. Gold took off during that period. The devaluation was so successful, that two years later the same group convened another meeting in order to stabilize the dollar from sinking further.

This Accord was also the beginning of the great debt bubble. America has grown wealthier, however financed by debt. In mid-1985, US households owed about $2.2 trillion in credit. Today consumer credit debt tops $12 trillion or a 445 percent increase. What had happened at the Plaza Hotel and other times shows that governments including central banks and their surrogate banks regularly act in their own best interests. Central banks were supposed to be the lenders of last resort and independent, but today they have become creators of money rather than stewards and rather than lenders of last resort, they have become lenders of first3resort. Rather than independent, central banks have become another arm of the government. By ratcheting rates to near zero, the central banks lend money to prop up their failing banks so they in turn could buy government obligations. Bailouts have gone to the banks, so those banks can use leverage to buy more of the sovereign debts of their respective governments, secured of course by equally dubious collateral. Central banks have run out of road and their efforts to stimulate the economy have set the stage for rapidly rising consumer prices. The burden of fixing our economies has fallen to the politicians, and this time the legislators are also running out of time.

Reality Sets In

The Chinese have put on hold projects and spending until the new round of leaders are elected in the Fall. And, in the United States, President Obama has also put everything on hold until after the US elections. The vacuum has been filled by investors’ misplaced optimism that since nothing has happened, all must be well. Both elections will be over in the Fall and then worries such as the “fiscal cliff” or Greece’s or China’s growth path will resurface. Investors too appear to be impatient, losing confidence in the ability of debtor nations or central banks to work their way out of debt. Increasingly higher borrowing costs are the new norm. In Europe, currency union was to be the solution but debt must eventually be dealt with, either by defaulting (see Russia) or more likely inflation (see seventies). America remains a time bomb. Its public debt at almost $16 trillion is the world’s largest, making it too big to bailout. Debt won’t navigate the United States out of the crisis any more than it has helped Europe or Argentina.

America faces a debt crisis caused by deficit spending as it pushed to give the consumer everything and the reliance on consumer spending and housing of course, peaked in 2008 when household debt represented some 130 percent of income. The inevitable bust almost sank America’s financial system, necessitating almost $4 trillion of taxpayer money to bailout into its banks, car companies and of course the mortgage companies.

Government spending still grew. Today, America is still recovering from this housing bust that has left housing prices half of what they were from their highs. Yet, consumer debt is still 140 percent of income, and despite the upcoming election, neither candidate has addressed the approaching “fiscal cliff”, a combination of tax increases and spending cuts. There is no question of the urgent need to reform, particularly monetary reform.

C O N C L U S I O N !!!

Gold As A Default Currency

The link to gold was ended when the Bretton Woods’ system of fixed exchange rates was scrapped by the big governments of the United States, Germany and Britain. Rather than linking to gold, currencies were allowed to float backed by the “faith and confidence” in their respective governments. A debt explosion ensued as more and more credit was created. Fiat currencies allowed the central banks to finance wars, deficits, housing booms, various bailouts and today there is hope that it will fix Europe’s problems. In 1964 total credit was $2 trillion and by 2007 it surpassed $50 trillion. Today there are some $600 trillion of credit derivatives swamping the world’s entire GDP by 10 times. Credit morphed into derivatives like asset5backed securities, credit derivatives, swaps, synthetic collateral, etc., becoming the fuel of the shadow banking system which is nothing more than Wall Street IOUs. Where did this credit go? Asset prices for oil, commodities and real estate have increased. Dollars have gone into emerging markets that produced both real estate and inflation spikes. Importantly, it allowed governments to get bigger.

The age of fiat money was the creation of modern central banks, and forty years later Investor confidence has been lost in the credibility of the central banks to become stewards of our money. It is this continued lack of trust and investor confidence that policymakers need to tackle. Time and again, banks have failed with the result that everyone is trying to game the system while blaming the market. But the system is flawed, fiat currencies are not money.

Trust in the current monetary system and its institutions, assets and markets are at an all-time low, so that gold’s store of value qualities have become highly prized. Central banks are buying gold as a hedge against the falling dollar and favour it as a safer investment than sovereign debt of their peers. Central banks own one sixth of all gold ever mined and are the largest holders of gold. After a twenty year period of selling, central banks bought the most gold since the collapse of 1971 of the Bretton Woods which created fiat currencies and the problems today. It has become the default currency. South Korea has recently added 60 tonnes of gold to its reserves. Gold ETFs have also become popular offering investors liquidity and zero counterparty risk.

Moreover, gold cannot be manipulated nor devalued by governments. We believe a big part of the solution is the creation of a new monetary standard. In our last research report, we wrote about the remonetisation of gold as a solution to the debt problem. After all, for thousands of years, gold has been money.

Or how about devaluation whose history shows that it can be a short term palliative by governments? In 2002, Argentina devalued the peso by floating against the dollar, and while there was surge in consumer spending, there was also a surge in Argentina’s foreign debt ratio which went from 60 percent to 183 percent. Debt remained unchanged but the main cost was debt as a percentage of GDP obviously increased, as Argentina soon found its debt load was unsustainable and a prelude to IMF loans. Prepare for the breakdown of the EU.

http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...01_thumb11.jpg


Dear Jim,

It’s been several years that I’ve been reading your writing and learning from it. It troubles me that such a large percentage of the emails you sift through might be depressing, so I thought you’d get a kick out of seeing a list of things I’ve done as a result of your inspiration:

1. Accumulated physical gold and silver on every dip since $800 (mostly eagles from my coin guys who still don’t know my social security number.

2. Bought a hobby farm with a well, great soil and pasture in a gentle climate (Oregon’s Willamette Valley).

3. Am growing my own vegetables and within a few years will be making our own Pinot Noir.

4. We have our own chickens and get more than enough eggs every day (my wife named one of the chicks Sinclair. She turned out to be a hen, but the name stuck. Sorry!).

5. Have largely converted the contents of my investment account (which was mostly precious metal ETFs anyway) to physical metals that I hold in my own possession.

6. I will pursue DRS on the remaining few common stocks I own, knowing full well that street name registration is useless to me in an "event."

I’m not rich. The scale on which I’m operating is probably smaller than most CIGAs. But I feel rich. And I feel like I’m doing right by my family. So thank you, Jim, for sharing your knowledge every day. Your courage is indisputable and the value you’ve had to both me and my family has been inestimable. The fact that you do so much for so many for no other reason than simply caring about the welfare of your fellow man is a daily inspiration. If I had your brain and your experience, I’d like to think I’d do the same, motivated by the same instincts that motivate you.

So please keep up the good work and if you’re ever near Portland, OR, please look us up for a delicious homegrown meal.
All the best,

CIGA Matt M

From WWW.JSMINSET.COM

http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd

Forexpros - The euro traded steady to higher against the dollar in early trading on Tuesday after German confidence data barely missed expectations, leaving investors buying amid an it-could-have-been worse attitude.

Investors also avoided the dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve Jackson Hole symposium that opens later this week.

In Asian trading on Tuesday, EUR/USD was trading up 0.01% at 1.2500, up from a low of 1.2499 and off from a high of 1.2503.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.2484, the low from Aug. 24, and resistance at 1.2524, the high from Aug. 26.

German business confidence in August softened to its lowest level since March 2010.

German research institute Ifo reported earlier that its Business Climate Index came in at 102.3 for August, off from a downwardly revised 103.2 in July, and missing market forecasts for a reading of 102.6.

The current assessment index fell less than analysts were expecting, dipping to 111.2 in August from 111.5 last month, slightly better than expectations for a reading of 110.8.

While the widely watched business climate index missed expectations, overall, many analysts were expecting worse, which gave the euro room to rise.

Meanwhile later this week, the Federal Reserve will open its annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has announced policy moves in the past.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is due to speak at the event as well, and markets were a little choppy as traders took up positions ahead of the event.

The euro, meanwhile, was up against the pound and up against the yen, with EUR/GBP up 0.04% at 0.7917, and EUR/JPY trading up 0.04% at 98.46.

Later in the day, the U.S. will release a report on consumer confidence, a widely-followed indicator of economic health, as well as industry data on house price inflation.

Is it time to go to work now??? Can't a bear have a quiet bath!

http://a7.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphot...23636353_n.jpg
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I hope to be back by Four A.M.

Happy bear. But on the first impression it seems a retracement till 1.243x - 1.245x. Lets see.

Edit : Daily on the otherhand looks promising as the 24th candle was a bearish harami on my chart and price is declining after that. It means could be full down around 1.23xx level.

Attachment charts are below . so as expected 2480 has been done and well 465 also . so today PA is well below D pivot and charts looking bearish . Yes reckon a nice and handsome fall could take this to 1.23 levels also .

Edit - one retrace may be due from 1.240 to 1.2430 levels . before any serious move starts

I was talking a few days ago about posting my own Risk Management program here on Forex Factory that I designed based on 9 years of FX trading experience first with demo funds and over 6 years trading large amounts of real funds.

Large being over $100,000 US

I found the following Risk Management article on the PipHut site and I thought that I would post it to show the contrast between most Risk Management systems and my own.

Here is what I just read which I share here.

Learn Forex #1 – Money Management the PipHut Way


The purpose of this page is to start a series of tutorials on how to successfully trade the forex market – the PipHut way! They should help to shed more light on how I look to trade my signals and in general. As always, take it in and make it your own .


This first tutorial will focus on money management – perhaps the most important piece of your forex trading and – too often – the one skipped by early traders.

Money Management

Money Management refers to – you guessed it – how well you manage your money! With me so far?

The focus of this page will revolve mostly around the risk/reward ratio aspect, though another important piece is the equity percent of your account you are working with. For example, a rule of thumb for equity is never bet more than 2% of your equity on a single trade. So, for example, if you have $10,000 in your account then you should not bet more than $200 or 20 pips on a single trade (or else get a a micro-account so you can wager 200 pips or $200). Too often new traders lose too much and then get increasingly desperate in their trades to attempt to “make up” the lost money.

Ok, enough about equity. As I said above this page is going to focus on the risk/reward ratio.

Risk/Reward Ratio
In short, the risk/reward ratio means the amount you are risking (i.e. your stop loss amount) against the amount you stand to gain (your profit or limit on the trade). So if you enter long on the GBP/USD at 2.0040 and you enter a stop-loss or determine you will manually close the trade at 2.0020 if it goes the wrong way then your risk is 20 pips per lot.
Pretty simple so far, right?

Okay, now if on the same deal you determine that your target, or where you will take profit and close the trade is at 2.0140 then your reward is 100 pips (2.0140-2.0040=.0100 or 100 pips). So on this particluar trade your risk/reward is 100 pips/20 pips or 5:1.

Risk/Reward Ratio Example
Before we get into what ratios mean to you and what ratios you should aim for, lets try another one. Take a look at the below trade signal and figure out what the risk/reward ratio is:
Short Entry: 1.5950
Stop-Loss: 1.6005
Limit: 1.5840
Take your time, figure it out… Ok, what did you get? Was it 2:1? If it was then you are right! Risk = 1.6005-1.5950 or 55 pips. Reward = 1.5950-1.5840 or 110 pips. 110:55=2:1.

Got it? Ok, if you don’t then read it a few more times, send me an email or post a comment below because this is very important. New traders too often do not set stop-losses and as a result may get a handful of 10, 20 or 30 pip gains (maybe even more) but then they get a 100 pip loss or worse because they keep hoping it will “just turn around” and it wipes out all of their gains plus some.

Now, here is where good risk/reward ratios become important.

Why is this important to me?
If you have a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 – meaning you risk the same amount as your reward each time – then obviously you have to win 50% of your trades to break even.

If you have a risk/reward ratio of 2:1 – or your target is twice as much as your risk every time – then you only need to win 33% of your trades to break even. Got that? You can lose 2 trades for every 1 you win and you will break even.

And it only gets better from there. Below are a few risk/reward ratios and the win percentage you need to break even:
1:1 – 50%
2:1 – 33%
3:1 – 25%
4:1 – 20%
5:1 – 17%
10:1 – 10%

Conclusion
A lot of new traders make the mistake of thinking “Ok I will just capture a few pips at a time, up to 10 or so” and they don’t even bother to put in stop-losses! What ends up happening is they may go on a streak for a few hours, maybe even a few days or more. But inevitably they get a big loss that wipes out all their profit and then some. When that happens you lose your confidence, your edge and you start to trade scared – and that only makes things worse.

The best traders I know practice good money management with good risk/reward ratios. Ratios of at least 2:1, up to 4:1. If you are a new trader I recommend you start with at least 3:1. The best traders sometimes don’t win 50% of their trades. But their wins are large enough where they make profit and then some.

CurrencyMan:

The above is good however it has no real benefit other than teaching new FX traders the basics of Risk Management.

I win over 75% of all my FX trades and by using the above method there is no way that I could achieve these results. Of course if I could win over 75% of all my FX trades using the above program you just need to do the math and you will become very rich very quickly. I will post my method later on today upon request.

Now I am off for an early breakfast and to organize my day.

Europe markets just opened in negative territory and it looks like a Risk Off day although it is still very early. I am so excited about Friday as August ends and Benny opens his (FILL IN THE BLANKS) at Jackson Hole and the World will be listening. As a big bonus Draghi will also be there. His last performance was a game changer NOT !!!

Good Morning and Good Trading

Today's Blue Chip Stock Market Comments

The pattern for Gold is suggesting that the Fed will not announce QE3 at Jackson Hole this Friday. Gold has reached the upper boundary of an incomplete Descending Contracting Triangle. The upper boundary point is a complete wave {d}. Next should be wave {e} down toward 1,550ish. See the chart on page 30. The start of wave {e} down in Gold will be confirmed when and if we get a new sell signal in the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator and the HUI 30 day Stochastic. A decisive breakout above the upper boundary, to 1,750 in Gold, would mean the sideways pattern has completed and Gold is headed to new highs.


Stocks did very little Monday on very low volume, as Friday's Bernanke speech has markets frozen. If QE3 is announced, we expect a powerful spike rally. If QE3 is hinted at, but not announced, we expect more of the same going nowhere price action we have seen most of the summer, perhaps a slight and slow rise. If QE3 is dismissed, a decline, perhaps a sharp decline could follow after Labor Day.


We got a small change in the McClellan Oscillator Monday, suggesting a large price move is possible over the next few days.


Our key blue chip short-term indicators remain on a sideways signal Monday, August 27th.

CurrencyMan: There are no guarantees that these technicals are correct as we can see everyone is awaiting the Benny show on Friday, August 31.

Good morning fellow traders,

As I have been blogging for the last year, the only solution to Europe's Euro woes is full fiscal and political union. If the powers that be fail to reach consensus on how to get there and fail, the repercussions will definitely include (among other not so desirable things) a full or partial breakup of the Euro Zone. I have stood by that sentiment, and today I stand by it even more as the events of the last several months have shown that even more clearly. The can kicking practices implemented so far have been successful in keeping the grim reaper at bay, but lately it seems that Europe is running out of road and they will eventually be kicking a can against a wall (or over a cliff).

It should now be about time for Germany and its northern clan of EZ states to realize that austerity in the profligate states has not and definitely will not solve their debt problems. Cutting back on fiscal spending during times of global recession reduces those country's GDP and thereby increases their debt to GDP ratio even though the debt itself may stop growing in quantitative terms. This undermines confidence by the markets and consumers in those states' ability to sustain the debt and the domestic economy. Therefore, allowing the situation to continue as it is without some fiscal union and the issuing of EuroBonds, will eventually either lead to Germany's hands being forced to bail out all of Southern Europe, or witness the failure and destruction of the European dream.

Yesterday, the ECB's Asmussen delivered a speech which I posted here titled "Interim Report on the path to a more stable economic and monetary union". In that speech, Asmussen outlined what he believed (and I agree with his beliefs) is the only path forward which avoids a complete or partial breakup of the EuroZone. The problem as he sees it (and I do too) it that there is still so much to do and so much to yet define. It is more of a view from 20,000 feet with no clear steps on how to get there. One of the biggest obstacles I see is the will of the citizens of Europe. I think that for the most part, the politicians know what has to be done, but really at the end of the day, it's all about what they can get away with while still maintaining the confidence of the voting public. In a nutshell, the technicalities of reaching a full fiscal and political union are easy. The stumbling blocks (and they are huge) are related to the citizens of Europe rejecting changes to the system. The citizens of the "Have" states don't want to pay for the citizens of the "Have not" states, and the citizens of the "Have not" states don't want to work as hard as the citizens of the "Have" states.

Okay, that's enough political analysis for today. If you want to know more on this subject, a quick search on YouTube should yield a few documentaries on the subject.

Yesterday was a slow day due mostly to the UK public holiday. Today will likely also be a slow day due to indecision and caution leading up to the Jackson Hole Symposium. The economic calendar is rather bare so any catalysts will have to come from the EuroZone talking heads.

Technically I am still expecting to see a move down to test the lower end of the short term range at around 1.2240. Before we head there we still have some tough support at 1.2440/50 followed by 1.2300/10. On the upside we seem to be capped by 1.2490/1.2500 followed by 1.2590/1.2600. Let's see where we end up today. Don't expect too much. The real catalyst for the next major move will not be till Bernanke and Draghi have their chance at the microphone on Friday and Saturday.

Good luck today

E/U Daily