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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #50,181
  • Aug 27, 2012 2:27am Aug 27, 2012 2:27am
Hi,

Good luck,

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #50,182
  • Aug 27, 2012 2:29am Aug 27, 2012 2:29am
Btw, wtf kindergarten on weekend. Again. Guys, you are making me dizzy .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #50,183
  • Aug 27, 2012 2:36am Aug 27, 2012 2:36am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Btw, wtf kindergarten on weekend. Again. Guys, you are making me dizzy .

T
This is Tom after reading EurAnalysis on the weekend

http://www.heart-valve-surgery.com/I...rt-surgery.gif
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #50,184
  • Aug 27, 2012 2:38am Aug 27, 2012 2:38am
Quoting mka_78
Morning PT

Enjoying reading your morning analysis with a nice strong double espresso

set small sized buy limit @ 1.2485 with 1.258 tp (maybe will lower it later based on pa) and a sell limit @ 1.261. Let's see what this Monday will do
Careful. Too much caffeine makes your fingers twitchy

http://www.clipartguide.com/_named_c...part_image.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #50,185
  • Aug 27, 2012 2:40am Aug 27, 2012 2:40am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi,

Good luck,

T
UK Bank Holiday
  • #50,186
  • Aug 27, 2012 2:43am Aug 27, 2012 2:43am
Quoting rekon67
UK Bank Holiday
Lol. Wtf are we doing here?

Btw, I ve heard there are some scammers here, so if anyone wants my money, just ask and send me your account number. Thats why I am at FF. To find the biggest super pro ultimately winning trader here and send him all my cash. I ve heard thats the holy grail of trading.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #50,187
  • Aug 27, 2012 2:59am Aug 27, 2012 2:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
Careful. Too much caffeine makes your fingers twitchy

http://www.clipartguide.com/_named_c...part_image.jpg
That's why I placed buy and sell limit and couldn't enter the trade manually
  • #50,188
  • Aug 27, 2012 3:00am Aug 27, 2012 3:00am
Quoting PipTrapper
This is Tom after reading EurAnalysis on the weekend

http://www.heart-valve-surgery.com/I...rt-surgery.gif

and this is Tom after years reading EurAnalysis on the weekend, the guy with the coolest shoes ever

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #50,189
  • Aug 27, 2012 3:02am Aug 27, 2012 3:02am
Quoting catwoman
and this is Tom after years reading EurAnalysis on the weekend, the guy with the coolest shoes ever

Attachment
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #50,190
  • Aug 27, 2012 3:28am Aug 27, 2012 3:28am
Good morning all!

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Large corporate buy order triggered after German IFO released to push euro higher.
  • #50,191
  • Aug 27, 2012 3:32am Aug 27, 2012 3:32am
Quoting PipTrapper
The ECB's plan is to intervene in the bond market by purchasing shorter dated debt of EZ nations that apply for aid from the EFSF/ESM program. The problem is that neither Italy, nor Spain are about to apply for aid until it is very clear to them what the conditions for any such aid entail. If Italy and Spain do not apply for aid, the ECB cannot and will not engage in any such EZ debt purchases. In chess we call this a stalemate.
Mate, I am telling you ECB is in. They aint buying those bonds directly, because they cant, but there is this one thing they can do. Help to the Spanish banks. This is what they are doing right now and is the reason why spanish bond yields were declining for three weeks. Those are ECB money no matter how you call it. I will try to find you link, but I ve heard, that ECB balance sheet on July expanded quite a bit thanks to loans to Spanish banking sector. And as we both know, it is not Spanish public debt, whats problem in Spain, but Private foreign capital fleeing from banks. Moreover, maybe you remember Medici spoke of easing the rules for bank exposure to PIIGS sovereign debt. LTRO and MRO started to run again after beeing silent for three months. Hmm, I wonder whose Securities are they refinancing? Could it be, Spanish banks?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #50,192
  • Aug 27, 2012 3:34am Aug 27, 2012 3:34am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Good morning all!
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Dang. Can a brother get a what what?

Inserted Video
  • #50,193
  • Edited 4:17am Aug 27, 2012 3:45am | Edited 4:17am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Dang. Can a brother get a what what?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFO-JdGt5_U
Morning Swiss! **What What** (there you go)
  • #50,194
  • Aug 27, 2012 3:50am Aug 27, 2012 3:50am
http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120827172940/

Dollar is mildly firmer against other major currencies as the week starts.

Asian equities didn't followed the rebound in US stocks on Friday and are broadly lower today. Investors are clearly cautious ahead of the highly anticipated Jackson Hole symposium this week. Fed chairman Bernanke's comment that "there is scope for further action by the Fed to ease financial conditions" raised the expectation that he's give concrete message of QE3 during the event. But investors hesitate to jump in at this stage. Nonetheless, we'd like to point out that the price actions in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY are corrective looking so far.

And thus, more downside is still generally favored in the greenback ahead.

Trading in European majors is also quiet despite hope that ECB would kick start the bond buying program in September to cap yields within a certain band. But that's not likely to happen at the ECB meeting on September 6, but rather, after German Constitutional Court's ruling on ESM. Bundesbank chief Weidmann continued to voice his opposition to bond buying as he said urged not to "the risk that central-bank financing can be addictive like a drug." And he criticized that "such policy is too close to state financing via the money press". As he emphasized that ECB shouldn't "guarantee that states remain in the euro area at all costs."

After meeting with Greek prime minister Samaras, French president Hollande urged Greece to "demonstrate again the credibility of its programme and the will of its leaders to go through with it to the end, whilst ensuring it's bearable for the population". Hollande will need to receive the troika report at EU summit in October before a decision. And "once the commitments ... are confirmed, Europe has to do what it has to do". German chancellor Merkel shared the same position as she stated last week that she has to wait after the troika's report before making decisions on whether to give Greece more time on its austerity measures. She wanted evidence to show that the debt-ridden country is committed to reduce its deficits.

In UK, BoE chief economist Dale wrote an article to defend QE from criticisms that it hurts savers. Dale said that "the "suggestion by some commentators that savers and pensioners would be better off if interest rates had not been cut by so much is misconceived." He cited two reasons. Firstly, the economy would be "in a far worse state without quantitative easing (QE) and a Bank rate at 0.5pc." Secondly, "by lowering long-term interest rates and stimulating the economy, QE has helped to prevent asset prices falling by as much as they would otherwise have done". And that "helped to protect the value of savings and wealth invested in financial assets".

Economic data is light today. German import price rose less than expected by 0.7% mom in July. Looking ahead, Ifo will be the main feature. The German ifo business climate is expected to drop slightly to 102.7 in August.
  • #50,195
  • Aug 27, 2012 3:59am Aug 27, 2012 3:59am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Mate, I am telling you ECB is in. They aint buying those bonds directly, because they cant, but there is this one thing they can do. Help to the Spanish banks. This is what they are doing right now and is the reason why spanish bond yields were declining for three weeks. Those are ECB money no matter how you call it. I will try to find you link, but I ve heard, that ECB balance sheet on July expanded quite a bit thanks to loans to Spanish banking sector. And as we both know, it is not Spanish public debt, whats problem in Spain, but Private...
Tom, from what I understand, any official ECB or EFSF aid to Spanish banks has to be guaranteed by the Spanish government. Of course direct aid to the banks is not subject to the same conditions as there would be for a sovereign bailout, so that will probably go ahead.

It is true that Spain's biggest problem is a Spanish banking crisis due to capital flight, but ask yourself why did the capital fly out. The answer is simple. The sovereign state of Spain is on the brink of insolvency. Their debt to GDP is not stupidly high according to the 2011 statistics, but after a bank bailout of 100 billion and the shrinking of their GDP over the last 12 months, I'm betting that they will be close to 100% debt to GDP by the end of this year. That is why they have been downgraded.

So, I have to respectfully disagree that the ECB is already in there. They are not and they cannot until such time that Spain applies for a sovereign bailout (not bank bailout) package and they meet all the austerity conditions, which will of course put their economy in an even worse condition... until such time that the pain is so great that they will forfeit their (fiscal) sovereignty to Brussels or leave the Euro.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #50,196
  • Aug 27, 2012 4:07am Aug 27, 2012 4:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
So, I have to respectfully disagree that the ECB is already in there...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spanis...parabolic-rise

375 billions on July. Not enough? + you still forgot about easing of the rules.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #50,197
  • Aug 27, 2012 4:15am Aug 27, 2012 4:15am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spanis...parabolic-rise

375 billions on July. Not enough? + you still forgot about easing of the rules.

T
Yes I know but my point is that it does nothing to address Spain's debt issues other than to keep it sustainable for a little longer, and it certainly does nothing to address the economic issues which get worse every day.

The capital flight problem is not addressed either.

If anything, all this does is transfer most of the sovereign debt burden to Spanish banks, which in the end would probably make it easier for Spain to exit the Euro.

Watch what happens in Greece because that will probably be the model for what will eventually happen in Spain and Italy.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #50,198
  • Aug 27, 2012 4:24am Aug 27, 2012 4:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes I know but my point is that it does nothing to address Spain's debt issues other than to keep it sustainable for a little longer, and it certainly does nothing to address the economic issues which get worse every day.

The capital flight problem is not addressed either.

If anything, all this does is transfer most of the sovereign debt burden to Spanish banks, which in the end would probably make it easier for Spain to exit the Euro...
Yep. A little longer. Thats the question now. Question for German constitutional court to be precise. Will they approve ESM bond buying in time? Maybe they will, maybe they wont, but for the time beeing, there are ECB money flowing in and I dont think it is good idea to stand in the way.

Well, ofc private capital flight problem is not adressed. Would you leave your money in Spain? . And yea, debt "burden" is transfered to banking sector. Poor guys will be reaping yields from money they borrowed from us.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #50,199
  • Aug 27, 2012 4:35am Aug 27, 2012 4:35am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yep. A little longer. Thats the question now. Question for German constitutional court to be precise. Will they approve ESM bond buying in time? Maybe they will, maybe they wont, but for the time beeing, there are ECB money flowing in and I dont think it is good idea to stand in the way.

Well, ofc private capital flight problem is not adressed. Would you leave your money in Spain? . And yea, debt "burden" is transfered to banking sector. Poor guys will be reaping yields from money they borrowed from us.

T
You're absolutely right. This is not the time to stand in the way of the gravy train. My point is that the problems will get much worse before (if) they get better.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_w9XO9zBePX...ts_cartoon.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #50,200
  • Aug 27, 2012 4:47am Aug 27, 2012 4:47am
Rofl . How about your old profile picture? Suits well here.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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