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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #49,841
  • Aug 24, 2012 5:02am Aug 24, 2012 5:02am
Quoting Schoey
HI all,
I have been lurking in background for a while so thought I would join in, if I may.
Here is what I am hoping for (hoping being the word!)
I would like to see price push down towards the 520 are where I will look to buy and hold until 600 is hit/passed then I will be looking to build shorts all the way down!

By the way I have had both my worst day and best day of the month this week, so 50/50 chance at best!!
Congratulations on coming out of the lurker's closet Schoey

Interesting strategy you have for the day... It stands a good chance of working in my opinion, but don't go by that... Use your own convictions.

As is customary here, I encourage you to please read page 1 of this thread where you will find the rules and objectives as well as many links to valuable resources.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #49,842
  • Aug 24, 2012 5:08am Aug 24, 2012 5:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
Congratulations on coming out of the lurker's closet Schoey

Interesting strategy you have for the day... It stands a good chance of working in my opinion, but don't go by that... Use your own convictions.

As is customary here, I encourage you to please read page 1 of this thread where you will find the rules and objectives as well as many links to valuable resources.

Cheers
PT
Thanks PT

Read page 1
  • #49,843
  • Aug 24, 2012 5:13am Aug 24, 2012 5:13am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
I'm short @ 1.2580. It is a 30 day value area high. PA is well beyond the 30 day PVP and also is near the 3rd standard deviation of the VWAP. As I have mentioned in the past, price should return back towards the PVP (POC) or VWAP.

If this happens, this will place price near the 1.23 area. First it will have to bypass a turncoat support at/or near the 1.24 handle. The play intraday IMO is SHORT. Of course things could change, but ultimately price will have to come back to the POC. This is all based on 30 day statistics.

If you want to go further...

PA is right at the 30 day 2nd standard deviation. A clear break of 1.2525 price area should put next price target at 1.2410/40 area as I mentioned. We also have the daily range low at 1.2460 to keep an eye on as well. If you were trading strictly as a scalp trader using this strategy, you would've probably gotten out and banked your 55+ pips.

GL
  • #49,844
  • Aug 24, 2012 5:30am Aug 24, 2012 5:30am
Newswire: SNB touted sellers of EUR/USD.
  • #49,845
  • Aug 24, 2012 5:35am Aug 24, 2012 5:35am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Newswire: SNB touted sellers of EUR/USD.
I hope SNB ist selling heavier than last time @1.248 when it popped to 1.2538
  • #49,846
  • Aug 24, 2012 5:36am Aug 24, 2012 5:36am
FYI :

1. Merkel and Samaras meeting as we speak and should have a news conference shortly.

2.The Spanish gov't will be holding news conference in about an hour from now.


Hold on to your hat.
  • #49,847
  • Aug 24, 2012 5:48am Aug 24, 2012 5:48am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
FYI :

1. Merkel and Samaras meeting as we speak and should have a news conference shortly. (...)
Eeeeeehhh.... It's not a meeting.
Merkel's gonna slap Samaras in the face, for what he's (not) done.
Now...
a) if he goes out crying like a baby, EUR goes down
b) if he's like a man, EUR goes up.

Attached Image
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #49,848
  • Aug 24, 2012 5:51am Aug 24, 2012 5:51am
selling EURTRY has a great R/R at these levels and letting a positive position run and accumulate generates a LOT of swap.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #49,849
  • Aug 24, 2012 5:53am Aug 24, 2012 5:53am
Quoting CurrencyMan
I continued on reading the Sprott article and I found this rather enlightening section on bonds.

The recent emergence of NIRP auctions are a signal that the relationship between governments, banks and investors has broken down. While the market still presumes that NIRP is a short-term phenomenon confined primarily to Europe, the dearth of AAA-assets coupled with banks’ captive bond purchasing suggests it may be structurally enforced for a long time to come. There’s even the potential for NIRP to emerge in the US bond market. As Bloomberg reports,...
Just Kidding PipTrapper

I do not have a link however this opinion is very clear and to the point.

I share it here and it does go along with the comments of Sprott in the overall context of the situation.

Without further ado here we go...

QE 3 Isn't Coming, Give Up

Listen up Mainstream Financial Media, the Fed is not going to announce QE 3. You've been running the same tired stupid story after every single FOMC meeting since May 2011, desperately trying to spin everything the Fed says into a call for more QE.

The fact of the matter is that only a handful of Fed members have called for more QE. They are Charles Evans and Bill Dudley, both of whom represent financial centers (Chicago and New York). These guys want QE Infinity because they represent the banks and could care less about the average American. Heck, Dudley even went so far as to suggest inflation was under control because iPads are getting cheaper... at a time when food prices were at all time highs!

Those folks have been clamoring for QE all along. This is nothing new.
Let me explain why QE 3 is not coming and why your desperate feeble attempts to spin every Fed statement into a call for more QE is going to bite you in the tail.

The Fed cannot announce QE 3 because:
1) Food prices are already exploding higher towards records
2) Gas prices are sharply up
3) Inflation is actually much much higher than CPI claims
4) The stock market is at or near four year highs

Those are the obvious reasons that anyone with a working brain could figure out. Now let's explain the more significant reasons that someone who actually grasps how the financial system works knows about.

If the Fed announced QE 3, or decided to monetize everything in sight, the bond market would implode. Every time we've had QE, interest rates have risen. More QE now after we've already had QE 1, QE lite, and QE 2 would signal that the Fed is willing to monetize everything under the sun. The end result would be an absolute catastrophe (the bond market dwarfs the stock market in size) as bonds would collapse, sending interest rates through the roof.

This in turn would take down many corporations as they'd be forced to default on their debt payments. It would also destroy the US economy as credit card defaults, mortgages, student loans, etc would be defaulted upon.

So no QE, guaranteed.

There's another reason QE isn't coming. QE sucks Treasuries out of the financial system. Treasuries are the senior most assets against which banks make their trades. Consider that the top four banks in the US (JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citirgroup) only have $7.12 trillion in assets backstopping over $200 TRILLION in derivatives.

When the Fed "monetizes" debt it is in fact pulling assets out of the system (swapping out Treasuries and other assets for cash). With over $224 TRILLION in derivatives outstanding this is the LAST thing the Fed wants.

Indeed, Bernanke has all but admitted this recently, saying "I assume there is a theoretical limit on QE as the Fed can only buy TSYs and Agencies... If the Fed owned too much TSYs and Agencies it would hurt the market."

Why would it hurt the market? Because the banks NEED these assets . And QE takes them out of the system.

Trust me... Bernanke knows about this situation in the financial system. This is why he propped up the four TBTFs as well as Fannie/ Freddie and AIG while letting just about everyone else go under: if these firms collapsed it would implode the system.

So QE is not coming. That's a fact. You can spin the Fed's language however you want but you're just making stuff up. You've been wrong about QE 3 for over a year now. And you will remain wrong. All you're doing is propping up stocks you're your propaganda.


Author of this article is Graham Summers

Gains, Pain & Capital
  • #49,850
  • Aug 24, 2012 5:53am Aug 24, 2012 5:53am
Quoting halkins
Eeeeeehhh.... It's not a meeting.
Merkel's gonna slap Samaras in the face, for what he's (not) done.
Now...
a) if he goes out crying like a baby, EUR goes down
b) if he's like a man, EUR goes up.

Attachment
Probably going to be much of nothing. Same sh#t, different day. This is like groundhog day.
  • #49,851
  • Aug 24, 2012 5:59am Aug 24, 2012 5:59am
Quoting cgldsmth
selling EURTRY has a great R/R at these levels and letting a positive position run and accumulate generates a LOT of swap.
Is it worth it to sell in case of swap free account?
I haven't actually traded this pair but will do some TA when i arrive home
  • #49,852
  • Aug 24, 2012 6:04am Aug 24, 2012 6:04am
Quoting mka_78
Is it worth it to sell in case of swap free account?
I haven't actually traded this pair but will do some TA when i arrive home
wo bist du?
  • #49,853
  • Aug 24, 2012 6:04am Aug 24, 2012 6:04am
Quoting mka_78
Is it worth it to sell in case of swap free account?
I haven't actually traded this pair but will do some TA when i arrive home
Not worth for scalping 10 or 20 pips. Only if you aim higher.
  • #49,854
  • Aug 24, 2012 6:08am Aug 24, 2012 6:08am
We already know
But I must say "Thank you" for posting all the links and articles Mr. ...
I appreciate the effort.

Quoting CurrencyMan
Just Kidding PipTrapper
QE 3 Isn't Coming, Give Up
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #49,855
  • Aug 24, 2012 6:09am Aug 24, 2012 6:09am
http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120824172831/

Overall markets were quite mixed. Equities weakened broadly as S&P 500 continued it's pull back from the new 2012 made earlier this week and Asian stocks followed. Some additional pressure was seen after Fed Bullard's comment on Fed minutes which was said to have played down the chance of imminent easing. Commodity currencies were dragged down by stocks. However, bonds told another story as 10 year US yield dived for another day to 1.666%, comparing to the 1.863% intra-week high and kept USD/JPY soft. Meanwhile, European majors remained firm against other currencies on expectation of ECB actions in September.


St. Louis Fed Bullard reminded us that the FOMC minutes released earlier this week were for the July 31-August 1 meeting, and were "a bit stale because we have some data since then that has been somewhat stronger". In particular, that was actually before the July NFP number which showed 163k gain and the stronger than expected retail sales. Bullard also described that tone of that FOMC meeting as "gosh things are not as good as we thought and it if continues to decelerate here, we're going to have to do something". But he believed that "going along at this slow pace is not enough to justify gigantic action". After all, recent comments from Fed officials were mixed and indicated a split inside the committee. The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium would be a key event as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke would give his comments on the economic outlook and the likelihood of further easing.

In Europe, Greek prime minister Samaras will continue his tour today to Berlin to meet with German Chancellor Merkel, and then to Paris tomorrow on meeting with French President Hollande. Merkel and Hollande presented an united message on Greece yesterday and urged the country to stick to its reform path. Merkel said she'd "encourage Greece to stick to the reform path, even though it has demanded a great deal from the people in Greece." Meanwhile, Hollande emphasized that it's "up to the Greek people to make the necessary efforts " to stay in the Eurozone.

In Spain, it's reported that the country is negotiation over the conditions for conditions to seek financial assistance. A preferred option was using the EFSF to buy Spanish bonds at primary auction while ECB intervene in the secondary market at the same time. That's actually not new to the market. Nonetheless, it was later denied by the EU Commissioner Rehn who stated that there are "no negotiations underway on any other sort of program".

German Finance Minister Schaeuble said that while some claimed that ECB's bond buying risks breaching its mandate, he doesn't see that. It's reported yesterday that ECB could set a target to cap yields in its upcoming bond buying program but keep the target unknown to the public. Meanwhile, it's also reported that the target could be a pre-defined band of reasonable width. And with that, ECB could be allowed to reward to punish a country on implementation of the reforms.

RBA Governor Stevens said in his semi-annual testimony that the peak of the mining boom will "occur within the next year or two". But he stayed cautiously optimistic for the global economy and expect RBA to be "well equipped" to handle any turmoils. The central program for growth is "close to trend" with inflation staying inside the 2-3% target range, with current interest rates "a little below medium term averages". Meanwhile, he noted that SNB's purchase of Australian dollar a "remarkable thing" and is a "picture of how bad the world is in Europe." And he's seeing more "official flows" from central banks and government recently.

On the data front, New Zealand trade balance stayed in surplus at NZD 15m in July. Australian conference board leading index rose 0.2% in June. Japan corporate services price dropped -0.2% yoy in July. UK GDP is expected to be revised higher to -0.5% qoq in Q2. US durable goods orders are expected to rise 2.0% in July with 0.5% rise in ex-transport orders.
  • #49,856
  • Aug 24, 2012 6:10am Aug 24, 2012 6:10am
Quoting CurrencyMan
Just Kidding PipTrapper

I do not have a link however this opinion is very clear and to the point.

I share it here and it does go along with the comments of Sprott in the overall context of the situation.

Without further ado here we go...

QE 3 Isn't Coming, Give Up

[color=#000000]Listen up Mainstream Financial Media, the Fed is not going to announce QE 3. You've been running the same tired stupid story after every single FOMC meeting since May 2011, desperately trying to spin everything the Fed says into...
Proof that I have known for a long time. There are many more but I'm not going to copy/paste all my quotes all day

Quoting PipTrapper
...Benny is not about to dash all hopes. He will leave QE3 on the table as an option even though I don't believe he will actually implement it....
Quoting PipTrapper
...There will be no QE3....
Quoting PipTrapper
So here we are, no QE3. Ohhh Big surprise
Quoting PipTrapper
...we would need the Fed to implement QE3 (which will not happen till next year unless we spiral into a freefall).
Quoting PipTrapper
...Except for QE3 which is a pipe dream...
Quoting PipTrapper
...The Fed will definitely not be doing any QE3 crap.
Quoting PipTrapper
...the USD is going to rebound on market disappointment that Santa Claus (QE3) is not coming this year.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #49,857
  • Aug 24, 2012 6:12am Aug 24, 2012 6:12am
Quoting CurrencyMan
Just Kidding PipTrapper

I do not have a link however this opinion is very clear and to the point.

[b][size=5]QE 3 Isn't Coming, Give Up

More QE now after we've already had QE 1, QE lite, and QE 2 would signal that the Fed is willing to monetize everything under the sun. The end result would be an absolute catastrophe (the bond market dwarfs the stock market in size) as bonds would collapse, sending interest rates through the roof.
[/color][/color]
I disagree with that post. First is a very Republican Election arguments which have some trues mixed with half trues and baked in a thin layer of technical misinterpretations.

Inflation and Growth are the two main objectives for the FED. Inflation is under control and recovery has been very mild in the real sector (in the financial world we are in 4 years high...like always the bastards are the only one taht benefit the most).

Add a pinch of salt (election) in which, naively I would say, Romney made the mistake to put in direct line of fire the second most powerful man in the US (Bernanke) and as you know the FED has plenty of ammunition to fire and very powerful ammunition short term.

Despite the politics of it, further QE is for me almost a done deal. This will be the last one before we start the series of hikes from mid next year.

It 1st make sense to break the vicious circle of speculation of buying the rumor and selling the fact at the highs (we have been doing this the last 3 year and only the bastards has benefit the most). Inflation is under control to allow room for further easing, economy is about to pick up but it need a final push (check the next NFP), stock markets in the highs (perfect, the last QEs were in panic mode at the lows) and more importantly world wide coordination to launch a bazooka and put a hard before and after line in the crisis.

Europe will be theoretically also on board for the 1st time with the ECB using firepower, UK is already firing and especially China is more than ever ready to make an aggressive push to avoid soft landing.

In conclusion, lots the usual noise from the Republicans and election side but reality and technically it is prolly the best chance to put a final end to the crisis we start in 2008 and start translating free money to the real economy ...

We'll see but my bet is on FED QE (whatever form of QE) before the end of the year.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #49,858
  • Aug 24, 2012 6:17am Aug 24, 2012 6:17am
Newswire: ECB is said to be waiting for the German court ESM ruling before making any decision on ECB bond buying. Ruling is supposed to happen by end of September.
  • #49,859
  • Aug 24, 2012 6:18am Aug 24, 2012 6:18am
Merkel press conference begins.
  • #49,860
  • Aug 24, 2012 6:23am Aug 24, 2012 6:23am
Quoting Tripeiro
Strengthening the EURUSD is reaching levels in excess of purchase. The resistances are given by the price downtrend line and the maximum of 18 June @ 1,2718/ 48. Today we are witnessing a renewal of the most maximum @ 1,2588. At this time the asset is close to 1,25550, to keep this short-term trend, we may see the pair trading this week around 1,2645/ 55 or even at the level of 1,27XXX. A return below 1,2430 will put the current trend in the neutral zone, and however necessary to break the 1,2325/ 35 to replace us in a trend "Bearish"...
We are closer of TP2 (sell Position), i move MY SL to MY Enter value (1,2548). I Put a Buy LImit @ 1,2490 wit SL @1,2475 and now i gonna take a hours to relax
Create confidence... because confidence is capital
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