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Attachments: SAFT System
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SAFT System

  • Post #201
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:38am Aug 22, 2012 11:26am | Edited 11:38am
Quoting zackery
I see no Trend here to follow.
So I stay out of the Merket.
Pic-Example attached.
Greeds Zack
Hi Zack - I see no trendlines on your chart, no OBV either but a Stoch & a no-lag MA. Whatever method you're trading it doesn't appear to be SAFT?

I've attached two charts below - EU and AU today. Both had costly false breaks. If anyone can tell me whether the bad trades either invalidated SAFT rules in some way, or if there's a reliable way I could have avoided them, I'd love to know!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-saft-losses.png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au-saft-losses.png Size: 37 KB
You noted that there were false breaks over several pairs, that is not a suprise. Look at your Forex calender, what do you see? FOMC by 1900 gmt. The institutions that move the market will not be putting money into the market before an important red flag fundamental market moving announcement.

The bottom line is this you would not be a successful trader if you do not understand the underlying sentiments that prevail in the market. No matter the system or strategy you use, this market is traded mainly by people and people have emotions and the react to news and events.


Quoting slipshod;5949012)

[B
Today there were false breaks on AUDCAD, AUDUSD (big one!), EURUSD (2 on that one, possibly a 3rd in the works now) GBPUSD, USDCHF (possibly another in the works now) and GBPJPY.[/b] It was just one of those days where nothing really wanted to trend (other than EURAUD and USDCAD), so every move was quickly retraced with a spike the other way, which also then retraced.

Its a problem faced by every breakout method, whether its breaks of trendlines or breaks of horizontal levels such as the Turtle system. The market pretends to break, then laughs at those who entered on the break as it goes the opposite direction.


I'm going to keep at it. This system is simple, price-action based rather than relying on a collection of black box indicators, and in theory it _should_ work. If this really did deliver 70+ success rate with profits 200% of the risk then I'd be over the moon, but I'd be happy with a 40% success and profits 150% of the risk - very few systems can boast even that unless they're either lying or using Martingale
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
Quoting slipshod
Hi Eval, thanks for responding. Please understand that I'm not criticising your system at all, just reporting my experience of it which has been a case of good days (Friday and Tuesday) interspersed with bad (Monday and today), with the bad outweighing the good.

I trade multiple pairs, something I'm quite used to doing (I've been trading for a long time) and I don't find it at all hard to concentrate on them. The entry method is very simple - has it broken a trendline on the price? Has it broken a trendline on OBV? If so, enter. Check back...

slipshod,

Thank you for your detailed reply. If you wish to play multiple currency pairs then I wish you many luck. I can only handle 2 at a time and in times of extremely low volitility (such as August) I trade only 1 pair most of the time.

As to your comment on trading all time zones. I would recommend not using SAFT in Asian times on EURUSD because you will not find enough volume to support a price action move and therefore your results will be less than successful.

I only trade Frankfurt open until 1/2 USA markt time because of two reasons. 1) I live in Europe time and 2) those times provide the larger amount of markt volume to support price action moves.

August has not been a very good month for trading due to low liquidity in the markt that makes for many false breaks and much whipsaw action. Today many of my orders have been stalled and of the 3 orders I place today I have 1 success (+53 pips), 1 breakeven (+3 pips), and 1 Loss (-9 pips).

Lastly, as to timeframes, I have only used SAFT in 15 min and 60 min timeframes so I am unable to talk about 30 min but in those timeframes I have many success with trading SAFT in those timesframe charts.

Best of Luck in your trials.

Evaluator.:nerd:
Quoting okehiedon
You noted that there were false breaks over several pairs, that is not a suprise. Look at your Forex calender, what do you see? FOMC by 1900 gmt. The institutions that move the market will not be putting money into the market before an important red flag fundamental market moving announcement.

The bottom line is this you would not be a successful trader if you do not understand the underlying sentiments that prevail in the market. No matter the system or strategy you use, this market is traded mainly by people and people have emotions and the...

okehiedon,

I agree. Markt psycology is a important part of trading Forex.

Evaluator.:nerd:
Quoting slipshod
Hi Zack - I see no trendlines on your chart, no OBV either but a Stoch & a no-lag MA. Whatever method you're trading it doesn't appear to be SAFT?

I've attached two charts below - EU and AU today. Both had costly false breaks. If anyone can tell me whether the bad trades either invalidated SAFT rules in some way, or if there's a reliable way I could have avoided them, I'd love to know!

slipshod,

Looking at your screenshots I can see the difference between your drawing the trendlines for price action and mine. That is why I said that drawing trendlines is more of a ''art'' than a science as people will have many different interpretations as the next person. ( I mark your screenshot and my lines are red)

As you can see that on the first one I adjusted the trendline when price action make a more vertical turn and based the top point on the very first pullback and rise. Second was very close to you but I have stoploss at swing high that was not hit and give me +3 pip breakeven. Lat was loss of 9 pips in negavtive whipsaws as price aciton pull back quickly to 1.24290 but I catch rebound with another buy order at 1.24750.

As you can see here are my 3 orders today. I also have a 4th that can reciently on a BUY at trendline break at 1.24750. (currently +40 pips)

Evaluator.:nerd:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SAFT Screenshot 32.jpg Size: 116 KB
Quoting Evaluator
jtzieg,

You do not need a signal service if you trade SAFT.... Signal Services only enable not empower. You will never be a trader if you only rely on signal services....If that is all you want then I suggest you choose another field and not be in forex.

Evaluator.:nerd:
May I suggest a paid or unpaid training webinar then? It seems all of the traders in the thread aren't 100% on the same page. I like the concept but even myself, I am not getting the same trades as you. Is there anything additional you can do to help understand better than just seeing screenshots? Keep up the good work!
Quoting slipshod
Hi Zack - I see no trendlines on your chart, no OBV either but a Stoch & a no-lag MA. Whatever method you're trading it doesn't appear to be SAFT?

I've attached two charts below - EU and AU today. Both had costly false breaks. If anyone can tell me whether the bad trades either invalidated SAFT rules in some way, or if there's a reliable way I could have avoided them, I'd love to know!
Well to be honest I am using the OBV for a long time now and it's only ONE part of my Strategy.
So in my Screenshot you could see another part of that Strategy.
From my experience it's always better that you go a few metres on your own with a few Indies that makes a dinner delicious for you and for no one other (like a System made by you and for no one else ).
So I could give you only a possible hint where to look to filter a System that works very well for Eval. But the Original System by Eval may not be fitted for everyone.
Good luck.
Greeds Zack
Thanks everyone for your replies! Eval, I've been purposefully testing by trading it purely mechanically to see what would happen, as if I were an EA. From what you're saying, discretion is obviously required to take into account (a) sessions and the pairs they related to - no EURUSD or EURGBP for instance during asian session - and (b) upcoming news, waiting for the news outcome before commencing trading again.

I'll take these into account from now on.

If the system works for H1 and M15 then I'd think it should work for M30 - its worthwhile I think me continuing with that (for some reason its one of my favourite timeframes).

I can see I've been remiss with my stop-loss settings. In your instructions you're pretty clear about where its placed (beyond the recent swing high/low) and when to cover BE (30 pips in profit, or when the profit exceeds the distance from the entry to the stop loss - eg if that's 15 pips then you'd cover BE at 15 pips profit). I've been doing that, but also advancing the stoploss as the price moved towards profit, which isn't something you said to do - could be responsible for some of my premature stopouts.

Zackery you intrigue me Yes each system will need to fit the trading style of individual traders which is why this one isn't for everyone, however if there's mechanical means by which false breaks could be filtered, well, I'd love to know what they are! I've been experimenting with quite a few ideas for it but haven't come up with anything reliable yet.

If you wouldn't mind sharing, could you say how the Stoch & the MA on your chart work? What is the MA measuring and what are its settings?
Potential Sell Signal appears to be forming at possible 1.25400 level. Given weak Eurozone and German numbers it is possible to see a reveral in markts today.

Evaluator.:nerd:
Quoting lhDT
Bad day for the bot today : -11%
Friday was awesome !

Currently almost BE.
IHDT,

Any updates as to performance? Is it closey mimicking original (trend line based) SAFT trades?
Looking at 60 min chart I see a head and shoulders pattern that could be forming. FIrst key level to break that will confirm a reversal will be 1.25000.

If that is the case then I am looking to complete retrace of the entire EURUSD rally this week. Big opportunities!!!

Evaluator:nerd:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SAFT Screenshot 33.jpg Size: 149 KB
Hi guys!

I was wondering, is there a MTF OBV ?

Regards,

Fable

Nice analysis Eval, I trade other system and for now odds are in favor for a reversal but as you said it needs confirmations.
Fix:
Gadi_OBV_v1.2 was throwing an error "Zero Devide" in expert tab when High/Low are equal. It didn't affect the indicator visual.

Here is an updated version without the error.

G.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Gadi_OBV_v1.3.ex4   4 KB | 1,046 downloads
Quoting gg53
Fix:
Gadi_OBV_v1.2 was throwing an error "Zero Devide" in expert tab when High/Low are equal. It didn't affect the indicator visual.

Here is an updated version without the error.

G.
gg53 Please send reply to a private message. thanks
Quoting gg53
Fix:
Gadi_OBV_v1.2 was throwing an error "Zero Devide" in expert tab when High/Low are equal. It didn't affect the indicator visual.

Here is an updated version without the error.

G.
Thanks G, appreciate you fixing the problem

Fable's requested a MTF version of OBV a few posts higher ... would you consider adding that to Gadi_OBV?
Quoting slipshod
Thanks G, appreciate you fixing the problem

Fable's requested a MTF version of OBV a few posts higher ... would you consider adding that to Gadi_OBV?
I'll try to find time for that.

G.
thank you gg.

can you tell us, what is the yellow line wich appears in your pictures?
Maybe it's time to...

Well, I see that most of you are occupied with TRENDLINES and MA's.

TRENDLINES are wishfull thinking and interpretation of the past - either a hope it will continue or searching for a "break". It is mainly based on history (and sometimes "ancient" history).

MA's are much of the same with a small difference - it's more adaptive. But again - based on history.

Want to know what is going to happen?
Want to "see" into the near future?

Simple. Volume and Direction will give you the future.
You already did a huge step - in using OBV (and derivatives) to find how much the volume is pushing the future price.
Why destroy this finding with historical data?

Since I'm steering away from Trendlines and MA's - I feel it's time for me to say goodbye.

EVALUATOR - Thanks for having me here - OBV is a great starting point and an excellent indicator.

If someone want's to continue the discussion about VOLUME and accurate future price prediction (without relying on history) - then open a new thread - invite me - and I'll gladly contribute.

G.
Quoting Fable
Hi guys!

I was wondering, is there a MTF OBV ?
I tried to modify another indicator (macd divergence), I'm not a coder, try it

Rob
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 OBV_DivergenceMTF.mq4   15 KB | 749 downloads
SAFT is hitting points and breaks on all counts today! woohoo!!

Evaluator.:nerd:

P.S. Sorry for the messy chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SAFT Screenshot 34.jpg Size: 207 KB
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