EurAnalysis

Need to find humor in things as looking at my PF doesn't make me laugh these days.

I personally dislike Bullard. Lately (since he is not a permanent voting member) he is always more media oriented and talking for the "show" and the politics.

Are you following the interview in Cnbc? ...com'n the guy is just ...well I just don't trust him and his Technical comments aren't really "appropriate" from a CB perspective ...but maybe is just me... He will be there until US open but I prefer to go for lunch instead of listening to him....

sisse

Please let me know when and I will fly you from Italy to Canada all expenses paid. I just hope you are not a 14 year old boy !!!

Now to forex

I was asked by PM to further explain this part of my post of a few days ago and I now will as I promised to do.

My post was as follows;

The MONEY FLOW is followed by watching the US Bond Yields on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds.

MONEY FLOW INTO US DOLLARS and US Bonds go up in price and Yield goes down.

Just like when the USA lost the AAA Rating. Knowing this fact explained why US Dollar Index went up.

Please keep asking questions and you will soon understand it. Just watch now knowing this.

CurrencyMan:

I can better explain by using the present numbers in front of me on CNBC live.

The Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds is .26% and the Yield on the 10 Year US Bonds is 1.70% with the spread 144 Basis Points. It was 150 yesterday.

What that means is that more money is flowing into the 10 Year than the 2 Year US Bonds.

Why ?

We had 1.79% and now it is 1.70 % and the 2 Year was .29% and now it is .26% so you can see the spread narrow from 150 Basis Points to 144 Basis points.

It means more money is being parked longer term because of uncertainty.

As why if EUR/USD which makes up 57.6% of the US Dollar Index goes down why does US Dollar Index not react accordingly ?

The answer there is also USD/JPY and GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and AUD/USD that makes up the other 42.4% of the US Dollar Index and for different reasons they might not go down. USD/JPY is one example and depending on Oil and Gold USD/CAD and AUD/USD may go different ways.

Please keep asking questions so we can both learn. Answering questions helps me focus in on giving you the answer and refreshing my 68 year old memory which is better now than when I was a 25 year old and better than any 25 year old that I know.

How old is my friend, catwoman ?

OOPS ... You are not supposed to ask a woman her age.

Other day had made a post suggesting that going forward we would have verbal interventions but not much substance.
Bullard this morning countervailing yesterday's FOMC, coming less then 24 hrs later would support the view.

Deciphering rhetoric from fact should be of help at choosing support resistance levels and the evolving turns from PA

Just for the record your comments are not correct... SEE BELOW !!!

Spanish 10Y bonds have popped about 20 basis points since hitting our daily high at 1.2570. The DOW and S&P still seems to want to move up. Still waiting on CMan's promise of a 250 point drop in DOW today.

CurrencyMan: I posted last night that the 250 Drop or 250 Move up was just an example of how the money would flow in either of these cases.

Keep the cards and letters coming...

Be nice to catwoman. You want to stay on her good side.

According to Goldman Sachs chief economist, the FED will NOT implement QE until LATE 2012/2013.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In other words after the elections perhaps! Now spoken by the real powers that be.

FOMC

http://hosting.fyleio.com/17735/public/fomc_img.jpg



The markets suffered a rare setback yesterday when an analyst had the temerity to downgrade AAPL stock. I’m guessing he has already been fired and if not, the sword of Damocles surely hangs above his head – just waiting for another non-perma-bullish remark before it drops.

No worries though; the market was goosed by the Fed yet again. Wednesday’s news came after the market had traded lower all day, as well as inside another tight range.

The FOMC minutes read that Fed members said (loosely) “We will announce QE3 soon, unless the US economy shows tremendous improvement.” In my opinion, that was a veiled remark that actually says “Look, we know the economy sucks so don’t worry we will protect stocks from falling; however, in the event data radically improves we won’t have to do anything. And since we both know that is NOT going to happen, yes, you will get more manna from us central planning bankers.”

The exact quote is “Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery.”

Substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery? Fat chance.

In other news this evening, which shows (yet again) just how bad the GLOBAL economy is, we read the Chinese PMI report that is, in a word: terrible. Perhaps Mr. Bernanke will be offering your money to save China too?




In other news this evening, which shows (yet again) just how bad the GLOBAL economy is, we read the Chinese PMI report that is, in a word: terrible. Perhaps Mr. Bernanke will be offering your money to save China too?

http://hosting.fyleio.com/17735/public/flashpmi.gif

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”







Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banking mafia.

Yes I am quite surprised with his candor on CNBC. He obviously does not reflect the general sentiment of the committee, but still I want to know what he's saying. It's all education for me to see how different figures in this business spew out their cerebral twitch induced verbal diarrhea

ADD: I do agree the figures that the committee worked from 3 weeks ago are now stale as there has been some improvement in the data, even though I still need to see more improvements to give me a comfort level from which I can say that the US is solidly on the road to recovery. I wish I could say the same about the EZ, but unfortunately I would be labelled a big fat liar... and rightfully so.

Isn't that rather strange that you park your money longer term when you are uncertain ?

Anybody else notice this rising wedge on M30, could be coming right on time for NY might add a couple more short positions if top line is rejected again

Top Stories

Eurozone PMI points to recession. Eurozone manufacturing PMI improved to an initial 45.3 in August from 44 in July, although it's still contracting, as is factory activity in Germany and France. The data "reinforces the prevailing view" that the economy will drop back into recession in Q3, said Markit. "The July and August readings would historically be consistent with GDP falling by around 0.5%-0.6% quarter-on-quarter."




Chinese factory activity contracts at faster pace. The August preliminary HSBC PMI for China fell to a nine-month low of 47.8 from 49.3 in July. New orders and new export orders both contracted at a faster rate than July, while inventories rose at a speedier pace. "Beijing must step up policy easing to lift infrastructure investment in the coming months," HSBC said.

ECB may keep quiet about bond-yield target. The ECB could set a yield target for buying sovereign debt but might not say what it would be, Reuters reports. By keeping the level private, the bank hopes to avoid a debate with governments about what it should be, says former ECB economist Christian Schulz. However, it's also "an invitation to markets to...sell, sell, sell to see where you would intervene."

Top Stock News

H-P shares dive after earnings slip. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) yesterday followed Dell (DELL) in reporting a lackluster earnings report, sending shares 5.4% lower premarket. H-P's FQ3 adjusted EPS fell to $1 from $1.10 a year earlier and surpassed consensus, while revenue slipped 5% to $29.67B and missed expectations. Sales at H-P's traditional businesses of PCs and printers fell, with CEO Meg Whitman, who's trying to enact a turnaround, forecasting dim near-term prospects for both.

Qantas drops multi-billion dollar Boeing 787 order. Qantas (QUBSF.PK) has canceled a booking for 35 longer-distance Boeing (BA) 787-9s aircraft with a list price of $8.5B after making an FY net loss of A$245M ($257.4M), the airline's first since 1995. However, Qantas is keeping an order for the 787-8, 15 of which are due to be delivered in H2 next year. Boeing is also paying Qantas $433M, with over $300M because of late deliveries.

KAR owners in sale talks. KAR Auction's (KAR) owners are in discussions with private equity firms over a possible sale of the vehicle auction company, Reuters reports. Kelso, Goldman Sachs Capital Partners, ValueAct Capital and Parthenon Capital, which collectively own about 78% of KAR, have reached out to other buyout firms to discuss a sale that could fetch north of $4B.

NY Fed set to wrap up sales of AIG assets. The NY Fed is today planning to auction the last batch of CDOs from Maiden Lane III - a vehicle set up as part of the rescue of AIG (AIG) - with a sale of $3.4B worth of mortgage debt. AIG has so far received over $6B in proceeds from previous auctions and could get another $1.9B, which will help it buy back more shares from the Treasury.

Ancestry wants suitors to raise their offers. Ancestry.com (ACOM) has asked suitors, including P-E firms Permira and TPG, to increase their bids for the genealogy Web site, Bloomberg reports, with the firm already turning down a proposal of $35 a share. KKR (KKR) and Providence have shown interest but haven't yet made any offers as they think the price is too high. Ancestry.com closed yesterday at $30.24, giving it a market cap of $1.29B. Shares were +6.4% premarket.

Top Economic & Other News

Markets rally as FOMC signals that more easing is on the way. Global markets started to rally yesterday after the FOMC minutes yesterday showed that support is growing for additional action "fairly soon" unless there is clear strengthening of the recovery, with QE3 among the options. Add the weak Chinese PMI print, and it looks like there could soon be a lot more fiat paper chasing the same level of goods. Equities, precious metals and oil are all up.

The middle class' lost decade. The middle class suffered its "worst decade in modern history" in the 10 years ending in 2010, falling backward in income for the first time since World War II, a Pew Research study shows. In 1970, the share of U.S. income going to the middle class was 62%, while the wealthy received 29%; by 2010, the middle class took 45% of total income vs. 46% for upper-income Americans.

Aussies divided over resources boom. "The resources boom is over," says Australian Resources & Energy Minister Martin Ferguson. Oh no it isn't, argues Nev Power, the CEO of Aussie miner Fortescue (FSUMF.PK), which reported better-than-expected H2 profits. "There is a boom and it's continuing and those volumes will continue in the future," says the always confident Power. The debate comes as BHP (BHP) and other miners put the brakes on capital spending amid slowing Chinese demand.

Chinese acquisitions of corporate America hit record high. Chinese purchases of U.S. companies and assets hit a record $7.8B in the first eight months of the year, and look poised to top the FY record of $8.9B, which was set in 2007. The biggest deal this year is Dalian Wanda's $2.6B acquisition of AMC Entertainment. The trend comes despite 2012 global M&A volumes on track to being the weakest since 2003.

Editors' Picks

Quantitative Easing: The Ultimate Faustian Bargain


Today's Markets:

In Asia, Japan +0.5%. Hong Kong +1.2%. China +0.3%. India flat.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.2%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude +0.6% to $97.82. Gold +1.5% to $1664.90.

Today's economic calendar:

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:00 PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

#1

The word "When" is used to describe a certainty, not a possibility. You should have used the word "If". But whatever... We're all entitled to change our minds in our analysis.

#2

I am nice to Catwoman. I'm not asking her to come over to my house or asking her if she's a 14 year old boy. I don't think your offers and questions are signs of a gentlemen.

You get a better Yield at 1.70% than at .26% if you leave Billions of US Dollars there for safety reasons and you get better return on money in US Bonds.

Please keep those questions coming.

Okay. Remember that I have an itchy trigger finger today and a full supply of Killex.

Be nice and drop it.

Anybody see Billy today?

You are a confirmed biker so I use the word "HOG"

Now to your post...

I do like and respect you. With no disrespect you might not feel the same and that is fine with me.

Here is part of your post and my answer to you.

The word "When" is used to describe a certainty, not a possibility. You should have used the word "If". But whatever... We're all entitled to change our minds in our analysis.

CurrencyMan:

Please read my post of yesterday. My goal here is to inform and help. Your reply is more based on your ego than reality. Just to set the record straight.



#2

I am nice to Catwoman. I'm not asking her to come over to my house or asking her if she's a 14 year old boy. I don't think your offers and questions are signs of a gentlemen.

__________________

catwoman knows that I am teasing a lovely lady with class. That is between her and I.

By my asking her to visit in Montreal I did not invite her to my house. In fact if she is over 14 and is married and has a significant other he or she is also invited all expenses paid.

The remark about being 14 was clearly a joke. For all I know you may be 16 although I clearly know you are married and love HOGS !!!

I am not a Male Chauvanist Pig. I am a gentleman.

And finally, "Judge Not Less Ye Be Judged"

Now my friend let us please focus on forex and the BAD new claims number that put the Dow Futures down.

Maybe the markets will go down 250 today > Who knows ? Surely not myself. Only THE SHADOW KNOWS !!!

Have a GREAT DAY and try to be nice to me. My feelings are easily hurt NOT !!!

There is a saying, "If You Cannot Take The Heat, Then Get Out Of The Kitchen"

And surely I do not want catwoman to stay in the kitchen all day.

Take care and be well and I do mean it. I do like you...

CM, with all due respect, what part of "drop it" did you not understand.

Please people, let's focus on trading and a bit of humor. Let's leave ego and personality differences out of this thread.

Thank you
The Management (The guy with the Killex)

He got Killex'd yesterday.

I'm not a smart man... but I know what love is.

And that's all I have to say about that.