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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #49,521
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:56am Aug 23, 2012 3:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
...and this is exactly what I mean when I say the problems in the EZ are very far from over.

Attachment
6.9+ on 15 and 20 year notes? ouch..........that revolving credit card with the printing press option can get mighty espensive in a contracting economy..........
  • #49,522
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:56am Aug 23, 2012 3:56am
Quoting rekon67
Wow, EW count! Luis must be proud of you
Please dont call it EW count, it is not. It is Tom Wave count, since I dont give a fok about EW rules. He made it in 1930s equities market and this is 2012 FX. I really dont understand how someone can actually use those rules, but each to their own.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #49,523
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:58am Aug 23, 2012 3:58am
Looking at my daily chart and using a 120 day market profile analysis, The 1.2592 area is where the 120 day PVP sits. Price always return to the PVP or VWAP (1.2630 area). The VWAP is above the PVP and a break above that then, one will have to consider short-mid term long correction of E/U with a target near the next P.O.C area near 1.3100 area.

This is what I see from a mid term perspective, but it really doesn't matter to me because I trade intraday. Just some analysis to show you guys the way.
  • #49,524
  • Aug 23, 2012 4:00am Aug 23, 2012 4:00am
Quoting PipTrapper
...and this is exactly what I mean when I say the problems in the EZ are very far from over.
Yup. Short term liquidity clearly flowing into Spain. Long term still fooked. I still wonder why intraday traders keep on jumping in front of that train.

Someone is sending huge money into Spain. I am telling you this for a month. Yes, it is conspirational theory and you can not see it. But you may see those short term Spanish bonds going down, or cant you?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #49,525
  • Aug 23, 2012 4:08am Aug 23, 2012 4:08am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
For Intraday Traders : The best gauge to see how price action will behave for the day is 3 things. If you do these three things and monitor them throughout the day, then you'll at least know what is going on. This is what I do and basically the concept that CM subscribe's to.

1. Check the DXY
http://www.forexpros.com/quotes/us-dollar-index

2. Check the Major Stock Futures Indices
- Ftse
-Dax
-S&P
-DOW
http://www.forexpros.com/indices/indices-futures

3. Check the bond market.
http://www.forexpros.com/rates-bonds...maturity_to=18

4....
Bookmarked and saved
Thanks
  • #49,526
  • Aug 23, 2012 4:09am Aug 23, 2012 4:09am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yup. Short term liquidity clearly flowing into Spain. Long term still fooked. I still wonder why intraday traders keep on jumping in front of that train.

Someone is sending huge money into Spain. I am telling you this for a month. Yes, it is conspirational theory and you can not see it. But you may see those short term Spanish bonds going down, or cant you?

T

Watchout Tom, that Spanish bonds (2yrs) are finding floor at "key" levels since yesterday.

FOMC is cleared but we have the the most important 2 weeks for the rest of the year coming with summer month end roll in play.

I call this the "Coordinated action combo" from Jackson to the NFP that will trigger the FED passing through ECB that cannot "duck" this time with the details... In simple words the events coming are too big and powerful to only track them in the EZ bond markets (although they may give us the heads up before the EZ debt moves but not the others)...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #49,527
  • Aug 23, 2012 4:12am Aug 23, 2012 4:12am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Looking at my daily chart and using a 120 day market profile analysis, The 1.2592 area is where the 120 day PVP sits. Price always return to the PVP or VWAP (1.2630 area). The VWAP is above the PVP and a break above that then, one will have to consider short-mid term long correction of E/U with a target near the next P.O.C area near 1.3100 area.

This is what I see from a mid term perspective, but it really doesn't matter to me because I trade intraday. Just some analysis to show you guys the way.
Thanks for the info...but i think it does matter....I also trade mainly intra-day, but my short term trading never seems to work very well unless i've also done my long and mid term technical analysis........
  • #49,528
  • Aug 23, 2012 4:12am Aug 23, 2012 4:12am
Quoting sisse
Watchout Tom, that Spanish bonds (2yrs) are finding floor at "key" levels since yesterday.

FOMC is cleared but we have the the most important 2 weeks for the rest of the year coming with summer month end roll in play.

I call this the "Coordinated action combo" from Jackson to the NFP that will trigger the FED passing through ECB that cannot "duck" this time with the details... In simple words the events coming are too big and powerful to only track them in the EZ bond markets (although they may give us the heads up before the EZ debt moves...
You're dead on sisse.
  • #49,529
  • Aug 23, 2012 4:14am Aug 23, 2012 4:14am
Quoting nathan25x
Thanks for the info...but i think it does matter....I also trade mainly intra-day, but my short term trading never seems to work very well unless i've also done my long and mid term technical analysis........
That was figuratively speaking not literally.
  • #49,530
  • Aug 23, 2012 4:16am Aug 23, 2012 4:16am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
... I still wonder why intraday traders keep on jumping in front of that train...
i think all these are demo accounts
  • #49,531
  • Aug 23, 2012 4:18am Aug 23, 2012 4:18am
Quoting sisse
Watchout Tom, that Spanish bonds (2yrs) are finding floor at "key" levels since yesterday...
Ty for input mate. I got already stopped out and I see the storm ahead, so I am out and watching the show. And reading my new book, Generations. Mate, it is wonderfull, I really recommend that.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #49,532
  • Aug 23, 2012 4:21am Aug 23, 2012 4:21am
Btw mate, check this post.

Quoting medici
Well...I know more than half a dozen bond desks that have been moaning for quite some time that they can't buy more PIIGS debt for regulatory (VaR etc) reasons, as they consider it excellent business - risk premium without risk.

When the same people start getting hosts of technical questions from ECB on arrangements for large-scale bond-buying, it's likely they act on it.

As we know from the media, the clever folks at GS have been loading up long for some time.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #49,533
  • Aug 23, 2012 4:22am Aug 23, 2012 4:22am
Anyone paying attention to AUD/USD and AUD/JPY? It is trading opposite of S&P/Dow futures, as well as DXY. Quite interesting. May it be showing us the way?
  • #49,534
  • Aug 23, 2012 4:24am Aug 23, 2012 4:24am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
That was figuratively speaking not literally.
FX, i recognize your demonstrated brilliance, therefore i will keep my snarky response to that one, to myself
  • #49,535
  • Aug 23, 2012 4:26am Aug 23, 2012 4:26am
mmmmmm is the 4HR in the process of developing a 4th ascending doji in series?
  • #49,536
  • Aug 23, 2012 4:27am Aug 23, 2012 4:27am
Quoting 100PipsADay
LOL

Yea, it was industrial grade so no weeds were left behind!

By the way, good morning PT. Excellent analysis as usual!
Thanks Hpip... Good morning to you also.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #49,537
  • Aug 23, 2012 4:28am Aug 23, 2012 4:28am
USD Plummets on Dovish FOMC- Key Support Break Risks Further Declines.....

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame..._Declines.html
  • #49,538
  • Aug 23, 2012 4:33am Aug 23, 2012 4:33am
Okay folks. Time to get out of here and get my daily dose of sun and fresh air. I'll be back before jobless claims.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #49,539
  • Aug 23, 2012 4:36am Aug 23, 2012 4:36am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Btw mate, check this post.
Well, first those "unknown" forces are called weaker dollar via QE expectations ...just the other side of the pair that's it.

On what medici is saying is interesting. I don't have a "proof" on that but make sense. I only have heard that "smart" money is betting on the euro crisis via different markets. There is so much mumbojumbo, politics and CBs intervention that they have "kill" the natural flows in the euro (according to them) so they are betting on Platinum and other very "different" instruments...

I tend to believe more on this, the more politicians intervene and markets are not allow to flow free, the more incentives it will be for finding ways to benefit from the circumstance...

Remember the derivative of the derivative of the sub prime mortgage and all the other thousand of instruments "created" to avoid the main instrument but bet on the same? ....

Bastards are and will be bastards. They are usually 1 or 2 steps ahead of regulators and politicians so I am pretty sure that they are betting on the euro collapse via different instruments (they are not dumb to bet all directly in the euro with all the CBs, politicians and media involved)....

In any case Generation what book?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #49,540
  • Aug 23, 2012 5:17am Aug 23, 2012 5:17am
12595 represents the 38.2% fib of 13480 - 12050 plus its the top of the current upward daily channel.

I am planning to short here TP 12520. As a beginner, I would be grateful if anyone offers a reason why this is not a good idea?
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