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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #49,481
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:04am Aug 23, 2012 3:04am
Quoting PipTrapper
...I will short from there also
PT is really making a bunch of traders pissed off
  • #49,482
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:07am Aug 23, 2012 3:07am
Quoting rekon67
PT is really making a bunch of traders pissed off
Am I pi**ing you off Rekon?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #49,483
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:08am Aug 23, 2012 3:08am
the 0:900 eurodata hasnt resulted in instant levitation or pull back on the Euro...what do you think PipTrapper, sideways PA most likely on the Euro until the USA Unemployment at 13:30?
  • #49,484
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:09am Aug 23, 2012 3:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
If that is what your analysis is telling you, then that is what you need to do.
For me, 1.2740 (or 1.2760) is just another technical level from which this pair may reverse to continue its descent. It is certainly a valid level but it does not in any way invalidate 1.2620... or 1.2590. As such, I am entering short at 1.2590 and if price does keep going to 1.2740/60, I will short from there also
Yes this is what my basic H&S analysis is telling me, but with this irrational market you expect anything, who knows where this rally will ever stop http://www.pic4ever.com/images/chase.gif

Time will tell
  • #49,485
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:11am Aug 23, 2012 3:11am
I see them screaming "How the **** can he keep shorting with confidence". "It's a mad man"

Quoting rekon67
PT is really making a bunch of traders pissed off
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #49,486
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:11am Aug 23, 2012 3:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
Am I pi**ing you off Rekon?
I am good. I have learned baby steps.

Further people should have a direction Wrong or Right nothing is in between.
  • #49,487
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:13am Aug 23, 2012 3:13am
Quoting Thijs
I see them screaming "How the **** can he keep shorting with confidence". "It's a mad man"
  • #49,488
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:13am Aug 23, 2012 3:13am
Quoting samib
my opinion above...
great day & many green pips

Samib,

may i ask where did u get the indicator that is plotted in the upper right on your screen ?

thanks.
  • #49,489
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:16am Aug 23, 2012 3:16am
Quoting nathan25x
the 0:900 eurodata hasnt resulted in instant levitation or pull back on the Euro...what do you think PipTrapper, sideways PA most likely on the Euro until the USA Unemployment at 13:30?
After the bashing the USD took yesterday on the release of the FOMC minutes, a lower than expected jobless claims number is going to dash the hopes of the QE3 bandwagon and thereby cause many of them to jump off; most likely sending the USD back up somewhat. However, I believe that next week's Jackson Hole Symposium is what they are really waiting for.

There's only 2 to 3 weeks left at the max before the reality slaps the market in the face. Until then anything can happen, but after that my money is on a meltdown... or at the very minimum, a move back down to the 1.20 - 1.25 range
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #49,490
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:17am Aug 23, 2012 3:17am
closed some of my longs, we're almost reaching this TL. before opening short positions IMO we should see reversal signs of the H4 uptrend. good morning all

E/U Weekly
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  • #49,491
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:18am Aug 23, 2012 3:18am
Carry trade. Why they are worth watching.
The markets are being bulled for risk by the Central Banks, this against a real world deflationary/deleveraging reality, the all encompassing debt crisis.
As long as the big players remain in a risk on mode from the money printing theme then they should be putting capital at work by placing carry trades.
If this perception changes and the market comes to accept that money printing is not enough to overcome the very real unpayable debts of Sovereigns then we go to risk off mode.
Very powerful downtrends in the Euro/Cad and Euro/Aud appear to be turning. This is more then just profit taking or the running of stop losses.

There is no technical confirmation of the turn to the purists. But Traders live in the Grey Fog realm, by the time something gets obvious the turn is well past and the risk/reward has little to offer. When something is obvious and can be labeled it is already priced in.

So i trade countertrend at the levels that appear dislocated from reality. Looking to get in early on the beginning of a new direction.
Lot of volatility to suffer through at turns, but the Risk/Reward is large when it proves out.
  • #49,492
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:19am Aug 23, 2012 3:19am
Quoting Thijs
I see them screaming "How the **** can he keep shorting with confidence". "It's a mad man"
I will probably do the same to add more but with larger pip distance. It just doesn't feel right to kill all the shorts now. We are actually just around 100 pips from the previous daily upper range 1.2441.

I don't know how to successfully scalp then this is the only way that doesn't need to jump in and out that requires a very good reaction.
  • #49,493
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:19am Aug 23, 2012 3:19am
Quoting catwoman
closed some of my longs, we're almost reaching this TL. before opening short positions IMO we should see reversal signs of the H4 uptrend. good morning all
Reversals? Are you kidding? I would prefere to jump in front of the train .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #49,494
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:19am Aug 23, 2012 3:19am
Melting icecream. A close below 1.2520 hourly candle will do.
  • #49,495
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:21am Aug 23, 2012 3:21am
Quoting nathan25x
If i may say medici, when PipTrapper talks about fundementals, he is not talking only about growth rates...in terms of the Euro there is very great legitimate concern weather or not this currency will even continue to exist, and if so, how it will be structured.

You can't get more fundemental than that.

If this currency where being valued rationally, there is no way it could even be close to parity with the USD. My coffee table economic analysis and valuation of the Euro would put it somewhere around .65 to .70 to the dollar in fair market...

Hi, not sure how you came up with your valuation, but I'd suggest a valuation of slightly above parity is more sensible given the swap, relative sizes of the economies, implied probability of QE, fed/ecb balance sheets etc?

How did you come to 65-70 cents?

As far as I'm concerned both economies are essentially boned in the medium-long run anyways
"Don't Panic..."
  • #49,496
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:23am Aug 23, 2012 3:23am
Quoting PipTrapper
A

There's only 2 to 3 weeks left at the max before the reality slaps the market in the face. Until then anything can happen, but after that my money is on a meltdown... or at the very minimum, a move back down to the 1.20 - 1.25 range
I agree...and after their nice long August vacations, the Greeks, Spanish, Italians, and Portugese will have to get busy explaining the value of lazy-fair economic policy to the powers that be........plenty of bad news to come......
  • #49,497
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:25am Aug 23, 2012 3:25am
Doing the same thing. I will not take any long position until atleast the end of the year. But I do try to build some long eur/aud positions.

Quoting Ken A
I will probably do the same to add more but with larger pip distance. It just doesn't feel right to kill all the shorts now. We are actually just around 100 pips from the previous daily upper range 1.2441.

I don't know how to successfully scalp then this is the only way that doesn't need to jump in and out that requires a very good reaction.
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #49,498
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:26am Aug 23, 2012 3:26am
Quoting Halifax
Hi, not sure how you came up with your valuation, but I'd suggest a valuation of slightly above parity is more sensible given the swap, relative sizes of the economies, implied probability of QE, fed/ecb balance sheets etc?

How did you come to 65-70 cents?

As far as I'm concerned both economies are essentially boned in the medium-long run anyways
ha ha, well i did say "coffee table"

But the main reason is the very large structural and political problems facing this block. In a sane valution, this degree of uncertainty should result in a hefty discount beyond simple GDP parity and like factors, until such structural liabilites are largely addressed in fact.
  • #49,499
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:27am Aug 23, 2012 3:27am
Quoting Thijs
I see them screaming "How the **** can he keep shorting with confidence". "It's a mad man"
HaHa... Those would be the ones with a short term view. Anybody who trades based on my mid to long term view should be absolutely petrified and scared to leave open long positions on the E/U pair without a stop loss. Remember, my trading style is quite unique. I probably break all the rules the majority have learned in their trading courses. However, there are a few very simple and essential rules I never break.

1. Based on the time frame traded, buy dips in a bull market and sell rallies in a bear market.
2. Never shoot your entire load into one position. Spread the risk out a bit and keep leverage low.
3. Know your risk limit and trade within it.
4. Murphy's law states... "Whatever can happen, will happen when you least expect it". So be prepared and expect it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #49,500
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:29am Aug 23, 2012 3:29am
The pink rectangle on the right is the place where I shall be looking for first weakness. I dont think we will get so low there though. Btw, it is pink for you cat . Nevertheless, we may not even make wave 4 and just continue this rally up to ,26x.

GL,

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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