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Extreme TMA System

  • #12,601
  • Aug 22, 2012 3:52am Aug 22, 2012 3:52am
Quoting bulent
Dear Bassramy,
Thank you very much for your information. Just one qestion? You are looking H1 chart. do you have h1 - h4 - d1 sloppy OR m15 - h1 - h4 sloopy could you reply me.
Best regards.
Bülent
I analyse the H1-H4-D1 Troika but use the H1 for entry as u can see in my earlier post.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,602
  • Aug 22, 2012 5:53am Aug 22, 2012 5:53am
Hi.


I might have some crazy ideas from time to time, but... they worked out every signle time till now. For me anyway. Like USDJPY short.

Well, here's a few more.

AUDUSD:
- potential entry long on about 1,0410 or lower (PA will tell)
- Target 1,06 (that's a bit high, but set as an extreme)

The confusing part is, gold can top at 1650, but than could fall like rock. Normally those two move simmilar, but this time they would decouple big time (wouldn't be the first time thogh...).

Thoughts?


BR
  • #12,603
  • Aug 22, 2012 6:13am Aug 22, 2012 6:13am
Quoting gearcila
During these times when this great system seems not to work and you keep praying that your pair(s) turn around so you start seeing some green numbers in your open trades, it is nice to see AL an other senior traders express their confidence in the system. To help myself and others gain that same confidence please take a look at post 9284 from April 20 2012 in which member sabrys5769 says [b]"I'm also short on GU from 1.6120, this is a recovery trade (my first... very difficult...) i know i made a great mistake on my entry.. so if i will be able...
Very good post. Yes, it is crucial to have confidence in your system, to avoid exiting a trade prematurely or too late. Once the conditions are met, you must have the patience to let the system do its thing.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,604
  • Aug 22, 2012 6:15am Aug 22, 2012 6:15am
Quoting jmdias
I Think what we have in the pair AUDUSD its a correction in a big uptrend...IMO Al u need to wait a little bit to be in profit..:-)
It will be ok. The move to the opposite D1 band has begun.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,605
  • Aug 22, 2012 6:19am Aug 22, 2012 6:19am
Quoting gearcila
Thanks a lot for your responses. They make a lot of sense and clearly shows one of my biggest faults which is lack of patience not only to enter the trades but to exit as well not letting the winners run as much as i should.
Seriously, thanks for your input.
Best Regards
...not letting the winners run as they should. There is the difference between winning consistently and breaking even or losing consistently.

The key to trading is to let the winners run. That´s why I am moving more and more to the H4 and D1 bands instead of M15.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,606
  • Aug 22, 2012 6:24am Aug 22, 2012 6:24am
Quoting bassramy
These indicators are shown randomly i don't use them exclusively on H1 and as you can see my chart is clean, i use H1 only for posting purposes.

Like AL i make a top down slope analysis and i only enter on H1 and only if the 3 TF agrees with the rules, i consider myself a more conservative trader so i like to see the 3 TF under the 0.4 for a short and vice versa for a long before i trade, that gives me less trades and less drawdown.
I hold from D1 band to band and i scale in with 1 Mini lot every time the TMA turns with the trend and i exit all...
That is exactly my trading plan also. I like you, have moved more and more to the longer TF TMAs. Not only is it more profitable, but it frees you to do other things in life than trading, which is also very important.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,607
  • Aug 22, 2012 6:27am Aug 22, 2012 6:27am
Quoting tp0440
Hi.


I might have some crazy ideas from time to time, but... they worked out every signle time till now. For me anyway. Like USDJPY short.

Well, here's a few more.

AUDUSD:
- potential entry long on about 1,0410 or lower (PA will tell)
- Target 1,06 (that's a bit high, but set as an extreme)

The confusing part is, gold can top at 1650, but than could fall like rock. Normally those two move simmilar, but this time they would decouple big time (wouldn't be the first time thogh...).

Thoughts?


BR
As I have said before, I believe AudUsd is going under parity very soon. Last night BHP Billiton announced much lower profits. Commodity prices are way down and China is slowing quickly. The Aussie will reflect this soon.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,608
  • Aug 22, 2012 6:37am Aug 22, 2012 6:37am
Quoting Alorente
As I have said before, I believe AudUsd is going under parity very soon. Last night BHP Billiton announced much lower profits. Commodity prices are way down and China is slowing quickly. The Aussie will reflect this soon.
That's the fundamentals, agreed. But don't ignore pshylogical factor of the market. Australia is percieved healthy compared to others and safe heaven and has very high interest rates.

Long term my goal would be 0,97, but that's weekly. It can take quite a while to get to that. We can hit anything between 1,06-1,09 beforehand. Actually, 1,06+ is almost a must before we can even discuss parity or lower. Well, on my charts anyway.

In the mean time, I am taking also h1 signals if technicals work.


BR
  • #12,609
  • Aug 22, 2012 6:42am Aug 22, 2012 6:42am
Quoting Alorente
As I have said before, I believe AudUsd is going under parity very soon. Last night BHP Billiton announced much lower profits. Commodity prices are way down and China is slowing quickly. The Aussie will reflect this soon.
Not to mention that GLD and SLV ( Commodities ) are way above there H4 Upper band and they look tired from yesterday's move and they start to correct, so we should take advantage of this correction to enter long on the lower h4 band ( in the direction of the D1 Trend ) targeting this time the upper D1 band.
Divergence already there but the slop ( H1 ) is still way too high.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,610
  • Aug 22, 2012 8:04am Aug 22, 2012 8:04am
Quoting bassramy
.
I hold from D1 band to band and i scale in with 1 Mini lot every time the TMA turns with the trend and i exit all @ the band targeted, i don't ever trade against the trend unless the other D1 band is reached.
Dear Bassramy

How to scale in with 1 Mini lot every time the TMA turns with the trend ? Is there any rules? And what is the difference between recovery and it ?

Best regards
Fishcoo
  • #12,611
  • Aug 22, 2012 9:06am Aug 22, 2012 9:06am
Is anybody trade on EurJpy and AudCad ? It looks nice except the H4 TMA Slope .
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.png Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD.png Size: 34 KB
  • #12,612
  • Aug 22, 2012 9:52am Aug 22, 2012 9:52am
Quoting Fishcoo
Is anybody trade on EurJpy and AudCad ? It looks nice except the H4 TMA Slope .
Hello,
For me ;
EUR JPY ; İf 99,80 will be sell ( look to d1 tma)
AUD CAD ; İf 1,0300 back will be buy ( look to d1 tma)
Except h4 sloopy.
Bülent.
  • #12,613
  • Edited 10:25am Aug 22, 2012 10:13am | Edited 10:25am
Hi!

I feel a bit confuse here, I trade this system with a couple of other in the same time on different accounts with more or less success.

I trade as rules of post #1 but it's seems to me that many people are waiting for PA to touch D1 bands before considering any trade. Is this necessary ?

Correct me if I'm wrong but here is what I see:

-EURUSD: waiting to short but H1 slope is way too big (currently 0,72)

-USDCAD: buy (08.21 at 16h30 GMT), I have exit half of my position when touching H4 band and I'm waiting to renter soon.

-EURJPY: Sell soon (maybe, waiting for H1 and H4 to drop below 0,40) however I did already take a (very) small sell trade when PA reenter H1 (because all slope were below 0,50, wich was the old rule)

-CHFJPY: just the same as EJ

-GBPUSD: I'm currently waiting to short (idem as EU)

-GBPJPY: I have take a short way too early so I'm waiting that the H4 slope goes below 0,4 to take a recovery trade (emergency SL at 126,5)

-NZDUSD: I didn't take the short because PA didn't break H4 band)

-AUDUSD: I see a buy but I'm waiting to see what EU and GU will be doing before entering

Also I was wondering what lot size do you use ? I'm using ARS/3 or een ARS/4 is this still to big ? (as so my biggest recovery trade is
no much more than 0,1 lot per 1k)

Too make it simple i'm attending a risk aversion (buy save heaven USD and JPY short other major pair)

As i'm a noobie please correct me if I'm wrong, I'll be very gratful.

Best regards,

Fable
  • #12,614
  • Aug 22, 2012 2:43pm Aug 22, 2012 2:43pm
Quoting tp0440
Potential next week's trade: USDJPY short.

Things to consider:
- 61.8 Fibbo retracement as top (drop from 80,60 to 77,90) has been reached
- H1 TMA above H4 TMA
- H4 and D1 TMA slopes already on acceptable levels
- H1 TMA slope needs to drop a little
- Extreme divergence on TMA Slope indicaotr
- 61.8 Fibbo retracement from current move up would hit 78,50, which will when reached likely match H4 TMA bottom
- 78,50 is also a firm support zone

Al, since you are hunting D1 top, this is likely against your rules, but everything from minutes to h4...

Well, I didn't think this will happen so drastically... but was pinpointed almost to the pip.

Al. What will you do now? Recovery? Let it run? Close?

BR
  • #12,615
  • Aug 22, 2012 8:16pm Aug 22, 2012 8:16pm
Quoting bassramy
Like AL i make a top down slope analysis and i only enter on H1 and only if the 3 TF agrees with the rules, i consider myself a more conservative trader so i like to see the 3 TF under the 0.4 for a short and vice versa for a long before i trade, that gives me less trades and less drawdown.
Hi Bassramy,

Please clarify what you mean with "3 TF under the 0.4 for a short...":

1. What are the 3 TF if you hold D1 bands? Are they still M15,H1,H4 as described in Rule #1, or something else?

2. Does it mean when all 3 TFs are having any values less than -0.4 at the same time, or when they are between -0.4 and +0.4 (ranging)? Though both conditions are valid for a short as far as the Rule #1 concerned, which one of those conditions do you prefer to be before entering a short?

3. What TF do you set to display the chart?

Looking forward to your comments/answers. Cheers and thanks!...
To excel by continuous learning
  • #12,616
  • Aug 22, 2012 9:46pm Aug 22, 2012 9:46pm
Quoting bassramy
These indicators are shown randomly i don't use them exclusively on H1 and as you can see my chart is clean, i use H1 only for posting purposes.

Like AL i make a top down slope analysis and i only enter on H1 and only if the 3 TF agrees with the rules, i consider myself a more conservative trader so i like to see the 3 TF under the 0.4 for a short and vice versa for a long before i trade, that gives me less trades and less drawdown.
I hold from D1 band to band and i scale in with 1 Mini lot every time the TMA turns with the trend and i exit all...
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #12,617
  • Edited 2:55am Aug 23, 2012 2:21am | Edited 2:55am
Quoting PeepCzar
Hi Bassramy,

Please clarify what you mean with "3 TF under the 0.4 for a short...":

1. What are the 3 TF if you hold D1 bands? Are they still M15,H1,H4 as described in Rule #1, or something else?

2. Does it mean when all 3 TFs are having any values less than -0.4 at the same time, or when they are between -0.4 and +0.4 (ranging)? Though both conditions are valid for a short as far as the Rule #1 concerned, which one of those conditions do you prefer to be before entering a short?

3. What TF do you set to...

Reread my post i already explained that i Analyse the top down D1-H4-H1 Troika TF and i enter on H1 TF.

A valid short trade for me will be when the D1-H4-H1 Slope values are under 0.4 and descending, i prefer to wait until they cross the zero line because that will minimize my drawdown and my risk, i found out that when you wait for your 3 ducks to align you can set your SL on the latest swing high and it won't be hit most of the time.

My profit target is always the other D1 band with scaling in multiple mini lots ( I trade Mini and not Standard Lots ) in the direction of the trend.

My chart display and my trading entries are always H1 that means less trades and that fits perfectly in my trading and life philosophy, i like you to know that i'm not looking for action, i have enough of that in my life, what i'm looking for in my trading is a reasonable steady account growth, and that's why i prefer the longer TF, less trades means less stress, less commissions, less whipsaws, less drawdown, less risk, more profit, more free time to do other stuff in life, specially that i'm not a full time trader, i have other business to run.

P.S. These trading conditions apply to long positions too, just reverse the rules.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,618
  • Aug 23, 2012 2:51am Aug 23, 2012 2:51am
Quoting Fishcoo
Dear Bassramy

How to scale in with 1 Mini lot every time the TMA turns with the trend ? Is there any rules? And what is the difference between recovery and it ?

Best regards
Fishcoo
There is no relation between recovery and scaling in, recovery is a risk management tool while scaling in is a trading tactic that means you buy on dips and fade the rallies or short the rallies and always in the direction of the trend.

PDF explains it all and further more i'm including some pics to illustrate.

Regards,
B.R.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Short on rallies.png Size: 70 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: buying on dips.png Size: 67 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Buying Dips and Selling Rallies after a Strong Counter Trend Move _ DailyFX.pdf   531 KB | 2,375 downloads
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,619
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:09am Aug 23, 2012 3:09am
Quoting bassramy
i prefer to wait until they cross the zero line because that will minimize my drawdown and my risk, i found out that when you wait for your 3 ducks to align you can set your SL on the latest swing high and it won't be hit most of the time.
Am I to understand the price being above or below the 3 time frames (Entry Rule #3) is only a trigger? Waiting for slopes to across the 0.4 line, much less the zero line, the price wold have moved down well below the 15M and probably the 1 hour band.
  • #12,620
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:41am Aug 23, 2012 3:41am
Quoting odellcash
Am I to understand the price being above or below the 3 time frames (Entry Rule #3) is only a trigger? Waiting for slopes to across the 0.4 line, much less the zero line, the price wold have moved down well below the 15M and probably the 1 hour band.
As you can see in all my earlier posts i don't mention the M15 anywhere because i don't consider it @ all, i don't go below H1 nor with my analysis or my trading.

Yes i will miss some pips but i'm in the business of conservative trading and protecting capital, so more security and less risk is much more important to me than missing some pips, but hey that's just me buddy and i kindly want u to believe me when i say that i sleep very well at night.

Regards,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
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