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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #31,261
  • Aug 17, 2012 12:53pm Aug 17, 2012 12:53pm
Quoting USD-Bear
always possible of course but the fact it's constantly hanging around recent highs reduces those risks. Wouldn't surprise me if go directly towards 80.60 before any meaningful retrace
that would be nice
  • #31,262
  • Aug 18, 2012 3:38am Aug 18, 2012 3:38am
Yep, the fact that we are heading towards 80.60 is undisputable! As you can see on the chart, we are now at in the zone of 200 sma and 61.8 fibo lvl from 80.60. In my chart we have slightly broken 200 sma, but the fibo lvl remains still ( and on 1h and 4h the market is highly overbought, which wouldn't mean alot if we are facing forming a new trend, because idicators are uselless in that case) so there is a chance for a small retracement, maybe to 79.20, but the bullish sentiment should remain, as the USD-Bear wrote until 80.60.


Another thing worth noticing is the volumen of this movement in comparison to last strong up-movement. It is much higher, which indicates that this can be forming a next bullish mid or long term trend J
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  • #31,263
  • Aug 18, 2012 3:40am Aug 18, 2012 3:40am
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48695976
  • #31,264
  • Aug 18, 2012 6:54am Aug 18, 2012 6:54am
Quoting Mr.Kruger
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48695976
nice catch Kruger, thanks!
Interest-rate differentials very important, think though low vol is now depressing recovery, we'll see the big guys starting to enter the market next week.
Besides that there are more arguments in favor of UJ let's look at some:
1: rising oil prices (they don't have it)
2: rising commodity prices (they don't have it)
3: balance of payments hovering to negative
4: investors (should) start to realize that Yen is not a save haven
5: technical aspects: the process of carving a medium/longer-term higher low in the 77.00′s ahead of the next major upside extension through the current yearly highs at 84.20
In these lights latest recovery is just peanuts imo.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #31,265
  • Aug 19, 2012 2:34am Aug 19, 2012 2:34am
Quoting USD-Bear
nice catch Kruger, thanks!
Interest-rate differentials very important, think though low vol is now depressing recovery, we'll see the big guys starting to enter the market next week.
Besides that there are more arguments in favor of UJ let's look at some:
1: rising oil prices (they don't have it)
2: rising commodity prices (they don't have it)
3: balance of payments hovering to negative
4: investors (should) start to realize that Yen is not a save haven
5: technical aspects: the process of carving a medium/longer-term higher low in the...
USD Bear; you are making some very valid points. What is your target on this pair short term?
  • #31,266
  • Aug 19, 2012 4:33pm Aug 19, 2012 4:33pm
Quoting Mr.Kruger
USD Bear; you are making some very valid points. What is your target on this pair short term?
targetting 80.50 st
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #31,267
  • Aug 19, 2012 5:43pm Aug 19, 2012 5:43pm
Yep, 80.50/60 sounds right. Opening up another lot on pull back to 79.20
  • #31,268
  • Aug 22, 2012 12:53am Aug 22, 2012 12:53am
Hi everyone, i usually post in other thread, but the Japan negative GDP and trade balance, my main focus is on the Yen. From now on I will be posting few chart on this thread too.

For now, I was able to gain most of the previews USD/Jpy upward move. What I see right now is a struggle to move even lower. If we add a fibonacci tool starting from the 4 weeks low to the last week high, we can clearly see that we are having difficulties breaking fib 23.6, which is a strong bullish signal. But I will not add a long now, i will wait for the FOMC meeting tomorrow first
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Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #31,269
  • Aug 22, 2012 5:27am Aug 22, 2012 5:27am
the number of discussions here is dreadful, as a contrarian I wonder does it mean something?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #31,270
  • Aug 22, 2012 6:57am Aug 22, 2012 6:57am
- U/J M15
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  • #31,271
  • Aug 22, 2012 7:09am Aug 22, 2012 7:09am
Quoting Ziko9o8
- U/J M15
nice trade, what's your target Ziko?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #31,272
  • Aug 22, 2012 7:15am Aug 22, 2012 7:15am
Quoting USD-Bear
the number of discussions here is dreadful, as a contrarian I wonder does it mean something?
Quite normal for consolidation/retracment phase of the movement, there are not so many emetions as in the strong "trend" movements, people are waiting for the situation to develope before stating their opinion.

From my view this situation could last for some time, but still i consider it only as a break in the uptrend to 80.60. Falling below 78.80 would change my mind
  • #31,273
  • Aug 22, 2012 7:17am Aug 22, 2012 7:17am
Quoting USD-Bear
nice trade, what's your target Ziko?
- Target: 79.00
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  • #31,274
  • Aug 22, 2012 7:50am Aug 22, 2012 7:50am
Quoting Kadc
It's looking good to me to go long from here (entering at 79.50), then I looked at all the other Yen pairs, and darn it, the CAD/JPY pair has risen four times as far since it bottomed and with a fraction of the noise of the USD/JPY pair.

I used to check every pair regularly. I don't know why or when I stopped, but I'm kicking myself now and looking for a good CAD/JPY entry point.
Also looking for an entry point on the CAD/JPY... what point of entry are you aiming for?
  • #31,275
  • Aug 22, 2012 7:53am Aug 22, 2012 7:53am
What do you think about the long term movement of this pair, guys? Has ne next big upward move started?
go go go
  • #31,276
  • Aug 22, 2012 7:56am Aug 22, 2012 7:56am
Quoting @40
What do you think about the long term movement of this pair, guys? Has ne next big upward move started?
I think we should wait for the FOMC before. If theres is now QE, I will go long on the USD/Jpy
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #31,277
  • Aug 22, 2012 8:09am Aug 22, 2012 8:09am
I was talking about the long run, more than a year ahead May be it's time that the dollar starts getting more expensive...
go go go
  • #31,278
  • Aug 22, 2012 8:11am Aug 22, 2012 8:11am
Quoting @40
I was talking about the long run, more than a year ahead May be it's time that the dollar starts getting more expensive...
yes and the Yen cheaper. Its hurting the Japanese economy right now
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #31,279
  • Aug 22, 2012 8:56am Aug 22, 2012 8:56am
Additionaly, current corrective phase comes from weakness of Dolar, not the strenght of yen, so it gives higher hopes up trend.
  • #31,280
  • Aug 22, 2012 1:18pm Aug 22, 2012 1:18pm
Quoting Ziko9o8
- Target: 79.00
- Target HIT.
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