EurAnalysis

The dollar index developed a negative bias right from the 6:00 p.m. Monday night open...and then really headed south very shortly after London open for trading at 8:00 a.m. BST...3:00 a.m. in New York.

From there, the index continued lower...and the low price tick [81.82] came just a few minutes after 11:00 a.m. Eastern. The subsequent rally into the close cut the daily loss by less than 10 basis points.

The dollar index close down a bit over 50 basis points...and you can see from the gold and silver charts that the decline had virtually no impact on their prices until around 11:30 a.m. in London, or 7:30 a.m. in New York. Only then did the rallies in the precious metals develop some legs...and by that time, half the decline in the dollar index was already in.

In my opinion, it's a stretch to say that there was any co-relation between currency movements and the precious metal prices yesterday.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/sit...21-470x307.gif

The gold stocks gapped up...and then stayed up. They hit their zenith around 11:00 a.m. Eastern time, about an hour after gold hit its high. From there, and up until half an hour before trading ended, the shares gave up over two percentage points of their gains, even though the gold price was trading sideways. Then, with thirty minute left, the HUI rallied into the close...and finished up 1.69%. But at its high, the HUI was up about 3.50%.

Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Monday, they didn't receive any silver...but they shipped 1,063,729 troy ounces of the stuff out the door. The link to that activity is here.
Here are a couple of charts that Washington state reader S.A. sent me yesterday...and I seem to remember posting the first one, once before. But it fits like a hand in a glove with the second chart, so here it is again. Nothing has obviously changed over the millennia...governments debasing the currency to worthlessness.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/sit...us-469x322.png
http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/sit...nt-470x329.png

Orderboard (updated)

Written by Pete Jackson
August 22, 2012 at 10:50 GMT

EUR/USD: Bids, 1.2420/30, sell stops below. Tech supp 1.2390/00 (55 day MA- 1.2390). Offers start 1.2480/00 ahead of a barrier at 1.2500 (part of a 1.20/25 DNT), also talk of SNB related offers from supranational. Buy stops through 1.2510 ahead of offers 1.2535/50 (July 5 high 1.2538) and ahead of the 1.2550 barrier

GBP/USD: Bids 1.5745/55 (1.5746 100 day MA) and 1.5700/10, sell stops just below. Offers 1.5810/20 ahead of tech res 1.5845/50 (22 May high 1.5849) touted barrier 1.5850.

EUR/GBP: Strong offers 0.7900/10 and larger up at 0.7950/60. Bids 0.7875/85 and 0.7850/60, likely sell stops just below

USD/JPY: Offers 79.40/50 (exporters) also tech res 79.56 -100 day MA. More offers 79.80/00 and large buy stops above. Bids 79.00/10 (55 day MA 79.09) , sell stops through 78.95

EUR/JPY: Sell stops on a break of bids at 98. 50/60, sell stops through 98.45, more bids 98.00/10 sell stops below. Large offers 99.00/20 probable buy stops above ahead of major tech res 99.80/00( 100.00 Ichimoku cloud top)

AUD/JPY: Bids 82.70/80 stronger at 82.50/60 sell stops below and again through 82.20. Offers 83.40/50 buy stops just above through 83.60

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/30 buy stops up through 1.2040

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0435/45 and 1.0400/10(sovereigns, real money) suggested barrier 1.0400, and good tech support below 1.0380/90. Offers 1.0480/00 (RBA commercial) and 1.0530/50

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.1885/95, tech supp 1.1856 (Jul 27 highs). Tech res 1.1960/65, offers /tech res 1.1990/00.

NZD/USD: Strong offers 0.8130/40 buy stops above. Some tech support /bids 0.8040/50, sell stops below through 0.8035 and psychological 0.8000 level.

I know. It might take weeks for this to play out.

I just thought I would put on a low risk trade and set it and forget it!

At least it's not a spazoid like E/U!

E/U targeting daily pivot @1.2434 while BB is finally expanding with the downtick. We may just be ranging til FOMC. Watch Equity futures into NY FX open and into NY equity open. Daily range low today is 1.2360.

Do C.B's have any power at this time to affect the market?
The early stage unwinding of the commodity currency carry trade suggests that the market is looking beyond the C.B's
US business decisions are focused upon the election cycle and not on any Fed induced monetary scheme.
The Fed knows it has only verbal intervention abilities at this time and so plays both sides of the fence. Evidenced by the light switch effect where various Fed members or presumed speakers in the know, come out with varying statements about Fed intentions.

The Audit the Fed movement is no longer the distant dream of a forlon Texan, but is moving mainstream in America and consequently in the Congress. Americans will not roll over and see their country taken from them. The days of the Fed central planners with complete monoply power over the monetary outcome in America draws to an end. People have been hurt deeply by the great recession and Americans have the knowledge and ability to find out where to lay the blame.

We have Romney at close quarters but even the Obama camp is busy repackaging Obama for a post Obama 1 campaign image. Axelrod realizes there is a big problem with American voters and so the attempt to move his patron to the center from the left.

No matter who wins in November, American politics and the policies that result are moving back to the center from the left.

I think as a trader keeping tabs on the carry trade pairs is quite important to assessing risk probabilities. Those who control these very large commitments of money may be seeing little to convince that these ongoing yield imbalances will continue forever. Wiffs of policy normalization are entering the analysis. Inflation expectations as to the effectiveness of ongoing C.B. controls over the market and the prior to, never ending interventions draws to a close with the changing political scenery.

In Europe the price for ongoing German support of peripheries is not a currency debasement but a commitment to changing the way things are done in those peripheries. This would appear to be a prime driver in assessing that printing will be the only outcome in Europe.

For now any retraces that develope in pairs such as Euro/Cad and Euro/Aud will be treated as opportunities to get in on a developing trend, rather then a range bound test of resistance. They may well exhibit strong reactions and it is always a difficult call to make, where does a range end and a trend begin.
The consistent and ongoing successive tests of the the 200 sma averages on higher and higher time frames implies that the carry is consolidating and possibly reversing.

Where is catwoman ?

In her lair!!! DUH!

She made me promise not to say

she's busy.....

USD = 82.000-82.050 A move above and I short the Euro
Gold = 1636, gold bugs will defend this level
Crude = 96.51 puts it below the daily 200 SMA
E/U = 1.2442 our Aug-5 high (we just dropped and stopped there)

We have Romney at close quarters but even the Obama camp is busy repackaging Obama for a post Obama 1 campaign image. Axelrod realizes there is a big problem with American voters and so the attempt to move his patron to the center from the left.

Well written analysis Foto. I don't think it is possible to move Biden and Obama to the right after the Biden "chains" and Obama "you didn't build it" comments. In my 40+ years of following politics, I have never seen conseratives fight back like they are now. It's going to be a very messy campaign. Our country, however, hangs in the balance. We simply cannot exist in our present form if we get another Obama term. Conventions next two weeks will give us indication where we are headed. Going to try to go see the documentary, "2016" this next week.

Jarhead. It's easier to hit the quote button to reply to another post so it would be more visible. Once you hit that button to the lower right of a post, all you have to do then is keep what you want highlighted between the quotes[quotes] and that's it. Please try it. I noticed you responding to individual posts but looks more like copy paste and too much work and hard for original poster to respond.

Hope this helps cause my OCD is kickin and you're killin me.

Wednesday, August 22, 2012 7:50:50 AM



Top Stories


BHP shelves $20B copper expansion as China slowdown bites. In one of the biggest signs of how China's falling growth has stalled the global mining boom, BHP Billiton (BHP) is abandoning a $20B expansion of its Olympic Dam copper project in Australia and will look at a "less capital intensive option" instead. BHP, whose H2 profits before items sank 35% to $7.16B, won't approve any new projects until at least mid-2013.




Dell falls after weak earnings report. Dell's shares slid 4.5% post-market after the PC maker reported falling earnings in FQ2 and warned about future earnings. Net profit fell to $732M from $890M a year earlier, and although EPS of $0.50 beat Street forecasts, an 8% decline in revenue to $14.48B missed consensus. Consumer revenue slumped 22% as Dell experienced price pressure at the low end, although more happily, enterprise solutions/services rose 6%, with servers/networking up 14%.


Japan swings to deficit as exports tumble. Japan swung to a far greater-than-expected trade deficit of ¥517.4B ($6.5B) in July from a surplus of ¥60.3B in June after exports slumped 8.1% on year, which was again worse than had been predicted. Sales to the EU plunged 25.1% and to China 11.9%, adding to fears about global demand following poor trade figures from other Asian countries.


Top Stock News

RBS investigated over breaking Iran sanctions. If there's a banking scandal, RBS (RBS) is often involved, and sure enough the Fed and Department of Justice are investigating the bank for violations of sanctions against Iran, the FT reports. Two years ago, the bank agreed to pay $500M in fines for Dutch unit ABN Amro breaching embargoes against Libya, Sudan and Cuba, as well as Iran. Germany's Commerzbank (CRZBY.PK) is also reportedly under investigation.

Empire State Building IPO at risk of failure. The attempt by the owner of the Empire State Building (ESB), Malkin Holdings, to form a REIT and take the iconic skyscraper public is in danger of failing due to opposition from legacy investors from the 1960s. Malkin needs the approval of 80% of 3,300 units held by those investors, who fear for their regular income checks and the tax implications of going public.

HP set for record net loss. With Dell (DELL) having reported earnings yesterday, it's the turn of H-P (HPQ) after the bell today, with analysts estimating that the latter's FQ3 adjusted EPS fell to $0.98 from $1.10 and that revenue slipped 3.5% to $30.1B. H-P is also expected to make a net loss of up to $8.9B, the biggest in its history, following a massive writedown of its 2008 acquisition of EDS, and due to a $1.5B-$1.7B charge following job cuts.

Top Economic & Other News

U.S. firms could lose out as Russia joins WTO. After 18 years of negotiations, Russia is finally due to join the WTO today, although American companies such as Caterpillar (CAT), Deere (DE) and GE could lose out. Due to Russia's crackdown on its opposition and its backing of rogue regimes, Congress is not inclined to repeal a cold-war law that restricts trade with the country. Russia says it has no plans to respond in kind, although it could legally do so.

Greece asks for "air to breathe". Speaking ahead of talks today with eurozone chief Jean-Claude Juncker, Greek PM Antonio Antonis Samaras has told Germany's De Bild newspaper that his country needs "air to breathe" to spark the economy back into life. Samaras, who is also due to meet Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande later this week, is looking for an extension to budget cuts. The FT reports that these cuts will be greater than expected due to falling tax revenues and increased social security contributions.

Manufacturers count the cost of regulation. Federal regulations could cut the total value of shipments by U.S. manufacturers by up to $500B this year, according to a report from a public policy group representing mostly big manufacturers. The report said EPA rules are the most burdensome - with 972 regulations - followed by those from the Departments of Transportation (880), Labor (214) and Energy (106).

SEC to vote on "conflict minerals". The SEC is due to today finalize new rules compelling U.S. companies to disclose whether they buy certain metals that have fueled years of war in Congo. Industry groups say that firms will be disadvantaged and that the rules would create a costly new compliance regime, although high-tech firms have been making a voluntary effort to cut these "conflict minerals" from their supply chains.

RBA Governor in hot water over bribery memo. The Royal Bank of Australia has denied that Governor Glenn Stevens misled a parliamentary panel last year when he testified that bank officials knew nothing of a bribery scandal at its printing units until 2009. The testimony seems to contradict a memo that then RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino received in 2007 which raised concerns about the bribing of foreign officials to win contracts.


Today's Markets:

In Asia, Japan -0.3%. Hong Kong -1.1%. China -0.5%. India -0.2%.
In Europe, at midday, London -1.2%. Paris -0.9%. Frankfurt -1.0%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude -0.4% to $96.44. Gold flat at $1643.10.


Today's economic calendar:

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 Existing Home Sales
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC minutes
11:30 PM Fed's Williams: Economic Outlook

http://a8.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphot...60069271_n.jpg

Can someone who is French translate for me ? It was on my Facebook page. Je Parlez Francais, Mais J'aime Les Femmes Anglais Ou Francais !!!

P.S. I speak better than I write...

http://static.fjcdn.com/comments/+_4...b6da89c5ee.jpg

Part I agree with, and part I strongly disagree with.
I have a previous appointment for golf today and do not have time to post an indepth response with my view on how we got where we are, but when I return I will cite this post and post a response.
Trade well, and safe!
Cheers

Got it. Thanks.

That ain't right.

Here's your translation...

Damn Lucky
And
Next year?
It going to be your party!