Probably a typo hahaha
)
- #49,022
- Aug 22, 2012 1:40am Aug 22, 2012 1:40am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Good morning folks
Wow, what a nice little short squeeze we got yesterday. It sems to me that there were several forces working against the short term Euro bear yesterday. The main ones would be...
1. USD sell-off in anticipation/speculation of further QE by the Fed.
2. Capital flow into periphery EZ government bonds boosting the Euro.
3. The lemmings jumping on the bandwagon.
All in all I was quite impressed how price sliced and diced its way up 140 pips without one single pullback along the way. Even the reported barriers at 1.2450 and 1.2475 were no match for the bull train. Those who were waiting to buy on a dip really lost out.
Anyway so here we are. Price is sitting just below the top end of a DNT barrier spanning 1.2000 - 1.2500. I have it on good word that 1.2500 will be very well defended. I guess today I will find out how good that word is and/or how able the option buyers are at defending against such market forces.
The fundamental situation has not changed at all. Although yesterday's move was mostly about re-positioning of risk and seeking of higher yields, it is also quite clear that is was a technically supported move and a long overdue completion of a correction from the 1.2040 oversold lows. Can it go higher from here? Absolutely. Will it? I doubt it. Maybe it is my justified bearish bias speaking, but I believe we have corrected enough and we should now be in a more neutral stance from a technical perspective. Besides, I am starting to see MacD bearish divergences develop on the daily and lower chats. Weekly and monthly show no divergences at all.
Today will be all about the FOMC meeting minutes as well as any verbal diarrhea coming out of Europe. Of course that is not the decider as we have a plethora of events in the next few weeks. Soon we will have the Jackson Hole Symposium. We also have Greek, French, Spanish and Italian meetings with Merkel, followed by the next EuroGroup meetings in early September. We'll get to all those when the time comes. For now we shall focus on today.
So here's my take. Of course one does not have to be a genius to figure this one out so I am able to say with almost 100% certainty that if the FOMC minutes fail to show that the council members were more dovish than last time, the USD is going to rebound on market disappointment that Santa Claus (QE3) is not coming this year. If we see any sign of even a slightly more dovish stance, then expect the USD slaughter to continue. I fully expect the former (No QE3).
From a technical perspective, the previously held 1.2041-1.2442 range is now broken to the upside. So we now have a new extended range of 1.2041 - 1.2486. Actually, considering that 1.2240 has proven to be such a strong support area, I feel compelled to redefine the range as 1.2240 - 1.2486. I see no fundamental reasons for this range to be broken on a run away rally or melt down of any kind. Of course that could come fairly instantly, but in absence of that, I believe this range will hold for a while. So based on that and the fact that we have MacD bearish divergence everywhere, this level is a good place for shorts with a great risk/reward ratio. Consider the 1.25 barrier as a key level. A short at 1.2480 with a stop loss at 1.2510 and a profit target of say 1.2280 (to be conservative) offers a fantastic profit opportunity with a very low relative risk. That's 30 pips risk for 200 pips reward = 30:200 = 1:6.7
I am already short at 1.2480. It was a sell limit order I had placed in July, but it never got triggered. I always knew there was a reason behind not deleting missed limit orders. This one worked out perfectly for me so far. Wish me luck
Good trading today. Be careful out there.
E/U Daily
Wow, what a nice little short squeeze we got yesterday. It sems to me that there were several forces working against the short term Euro bear yesterday. The main ones would be...
1. USD sell-off in anticipation/speculation of further QE by the Fed.
2. Capital flow into periphery EZ government bonds boosting the Euro.
3. The lemmings jumping on the bandwagon.
All in all I was quite impressed how price sliced and diced its way up 140 pips without one single pullback along the way. Even the reported barriers at 1.2450 and 1.2475 were no match for the bull train. Those who were waiting to buy on a dip really lost out.
Anyway so here we are. Price is sitting just below the top end of a DNT barrier spanning 1.2000 - 1.2500. I have it on good word that 1.2500 will be very well defended. I guess today I will find out how good that word is and/or how able the option buyers are at defending against such market forces.
The fundamental situation has not changed at all. Although yesterday's move was mostly about re-positioning of risk and seeking of higher yields, it is also quite clear that is was a technically supported move and a long overdue completion of a correction from the 1.2040 oversold lows. Can it go higher from here? Absolutely. Will it? I doubt it. Maybe it is my justified bearish bias speaking, but I believe we have corrected enough and we should now be in a more neutral stance from a technical perspective. Besides, I am starting to see MacD bearish divergences develop on the daily and lower chats. Weekly and monthly show no divergences at all.
Today will be all about the FOMC meeting minutes as well as any verbal diarrhea coming out of Europe. Of course that is not the decider as we have a plethora of events in the next few weeks. Soon we will have the Jackson Hole Symposium. We also have Greek, French, Spanish and Italian meetings with Merkel, followed by the next EuroGroup meetings in early September. We'll get to all those when the time comes. For now we shall focus on today.
So here's my take. Of course one does not have to be a genius to figure this one out so I am able to say with almost 100% certainty that if the FOMC minutes fail to show that the council members were more dovish than last time, the USD is going to rebound on market disappointment that Santa Claus (QE3) is not coming this year. If we see any sign of even a slightly more dovish stance, then expect the USD slaughter to continue. I fully expect the former (No QE3).
From a technical perspective, the previously held 1.2041-1.2442 range is now broken to the upside. So we now have a new extended range of 1.2041 - 1.2486. Actually, considering that 1.2240 has proven to be such a strong support area, I feel compelled to redefine the range as 1.2240 - 1.2486. I see no fundamental reasons for this range to be broken on a run away rally or melt down of any kind. Of course that could come fairly instantly, but in absence of that, I believe this range will hold for a while. So based on that and the fact that we have MacD bearish divergence everywhere, this level is a good place for shorts with a great risk/reward ratio. Consider the 1.25 barrier as a key level. A short at 1.2480 with a stop loss at 1.2510 and a profit target of say 1.2280 (to be conservative) offers a fantastic profit opportunity with a very low relative risk. That's 30 pips risk for 200 pips reward = 30:200 = 1:6.7
I am already short at 1.2480. It was a sell limit order I had placed in July, but it never got triggered. I always knew there was a reason behind not deleting missed limit orders. This one worked out perfectly for me so far. Wish me luck
Good trading today. Be careful out there.
E/U Daily
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #49,023
- Aug 22, 2012 1:40am Aug 22, 2012 1:40am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #49,024
- Aug 22, 2012 1:42am Aug 22, 2012 1:42am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #49,025
- Aug 22, 2012 1:49am Aug 22, 2012 1:49am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #49,027
- Aug 22, 2012 1:56am Aug 22, 2012 1:56am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #49,028
- Aug 22, 2012 2:04am Aug 22, 2012 2:04am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Hi PT are you hosting this site on your own machine? I just curious as I found something which make me feel that it is not a purchased host, may be I am wrong.
I do have my own hosting business too but if I hosted it there, that would put my true identity at risk of being discovered.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #49,031
- Aug 22, 2012 2:11am Aug 22, 2012 2:11am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
It is a commercial hosting provider in Texas.
I do have my own hosting business too but if I hosted it there, that would put my true identity at risk of being discovered.
- #49,032
- Aug 22, 2012 2:12am Aug 22, 2012 2:12am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
PT, why you say "I am starting to see divergences develop"? Isn't it already a divergence on daily?
Thanks
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #49,033
- Aug 22, 2012 2:14am Aug 22, 2012 2:14am
EURUSD try to analyze my wrong thinking yesterday 
1. I got 1. class information last Friday we were going Short. I did everything right but didn´wait last USD news issued that´s why got only breakevens
2. No important news were issued during the weekend
3. Monday´s Short was right TP hit but as we can see on the chart price reversed immediately and closed at the same level as opened
4. Then came "Black Tuesday", Among that Short forecasts I also post one for Long and was paying attention to the price of 1.2330 and TP below. It wasn´t happen. Price moved UP without retracement so that is why I was still thinking Short...tried again and tried again and then lost a lot of money.....I also paid attention to the Danske bank forecast (they were long from 1.2290...never happened!!!)
1. I got 1. class information last Friday we were going Short. I did everything right but didn´wait last USD news issued that´s why got only breakevens
2. No important news were issued during the weekend
3. Monday´s Short was right TP hit but as we can see on the chart price reversed immediately and closed at the same level as opened
4. Then came "Black Tuesday", Among that Short forecasts I also post one for Long and was paying attention to the price of 1.2330 and TP below. It wasn´t happen. Price moved UP without retracement so that is why I was still thinking Short...tried again and tried again and then lost a lot of money.....I also paid attention to the Danske bank forecast (they were long from 1.2290...never happened!!!
)
{Promotion Removed}
- #49,034
- Aug 22, 2012 2:24am Aug 22, 2012 2:24am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
EURUSD try to analyze my wrong thinking yesterday
1. I got 1. class information last Friday we were going Short. I did everything right but didn´wait last USD news issued that´s why got only breakevens
2. No important news were issued during the weekend
3. Monday´s Short was right TP hit but as we can see on the chart price reversed immediately and closed at the same level as opened
4. Then came "Black Tuesday", Among that Short forecasts I also post one for Long and was paying attention to the price of 1.2330 and TP below. It wasn´t happen....
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #49,035
- Edited 3:03am Aug 22, 2012 2:48am | Edited 3:03am
I am starting to see MacD bearish divergences develop on the daily and lower chats. Weekly and monthly show no divergences at all.
E/U Daily
Attachment
I am watching gold and oil and usdcad.
Gold bearish divergence on daily
Oil bearish divergence on daily
usdcad bullish divergence on H4
S&P down
all these factors + No QE3 help the drop. Time will tell
add: I was saying yesterday there was eurusd bearish divergence on the hourly and some one here was asking me not to show up. Well I guess the divergence showed up, not me
. It's just a matter of time til it plays
- #49,036
- Aug 22, 2012 3:04am Aug 22, 2012 3:04am
- | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: nothing new under the sun | 1,428 Posts
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
- #49,037
- Aug 22, 2012 3:07am Aug 22, 2012 3:07am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
ur so true,actually i was lucky to be in the position from 1.2350,i still hold my partial position may be i add another long if price reach 1.2420 and i plan hold the position till benny speak.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #49,038
- Aug 22, 2012 3:10am Aug 22, 2012 3:10am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #49,039
- Aug 22, 2012 3:19am Aug 22, 2012 3:19am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Trader | 25,867 Posts
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
- #49,040
- Aug 22, 2012 3:39am Aug 22, 2012 3:39am
If I were in your position, I would wait until after the FOMC meeting minutes before deciding on adding more. However, it is your trading strategy and your money... not mine
I mean really!!!
{Promotion Removed}