EurAnalysis

not really. in my books predicting the financial ruin of somebody is a bit harsher than calling somebody a prick. And actually, i am not sure sure that prick is even crossing the line. However out of respect for PT, I revised.

Carlos. You are the master of EW. Please post here more often. Or maybe I should just find time to visit your thread more often. Great call.

I think it's call commando pattern! I don't want to see it. That's all you bro.

If you look at the H4 and above charts, we're still in a down trend

It's certainly looking that way.
When the USD finally recovers after the QE bandwagon is disappointed tomorrow, the U/CAD should make a nice recovery.

long

SP 500 closes below yesterday's low. Euro should follow tomorrow

CGB

bearish inside bar forming on H4
sell if 1.2453 - daily R3 need is breeched
then 1.2440 after
if no further news we should see going to 1.24-1.2380
xau/usd is slowly drifting back down to 1625

and if it doesnt this is strong bullish change to how this pair is being directed.

good luck

i am already feeling lot better about my u/j, u/c.and i think probably yen will take out 79 by tommorrow.
the only trade which is a bit trouble some to me is my gbp/usd,lets see how it goes.by the way uk is in bad condition economically and i dont see any hope for the nation, when one speak to young boys and girls one feel like they dont have any dream or want to work hard to get something,most of the time they opt for the second best in life.when i talk to different age group ppl the impression i get is the ppl who are in thier 80 and 90s they had worked really hard and the quality they have is integrety,the worst group is 55 to 65 age group,they had a pure hedonistic life and use up everything which was built up by ppl who r in thier 75yrs and above
age group 25 to 55 is a generation i called holiday type and laziest who wish to be on holiday all the time and doesnt want to work at all and take for granted everything which comes thier way.
the group that fall below 25 is going to suffer worst next decade i called them scavenger group for obvious reason becos they going to clear the sh.. created by the above group.

my girls e/u trade got triggered when she was out. she came back home and went immediately to bed leaving the trade to run lol. it isnt going in her favour at present but i would of liked to show her how to make it good.anyway it could be a lesson learned if this trade flops but i doubt it as i will bail her out.take care guys

good evening, your observation of the Uk, the people you speak about are they 1/ english, 2/ british 3/ foreign and can i assume you live in a city. Take care

Thank you Swiss, I am just learning... I will like to see a bounces tomorrow FMOC... Everybody knows that QE3 is until next year or maybe santa claus present, I cant believe there is somebody to think about that tomorrow.

that was about humans living in united kingdom which include whites,blacks,browns,yellows,reds.....by the way it was not about the ppl but the attitudes and general disposition of them and please do understand i may be wrong and these are the impression of my own,

ok let me put it this way if it may help u to sleep better,since my GBP/USD trade going against me and becos of that my mood not very good and the perception of mine is not 100% objective and unbias hence its such a bad assesment and wrong diagnosis on my part and everything is alright with uk.cheers

i made an earlier post today regarding my daughter marrying an asian as long as they are a good person so thats sorted, and your g/u trade when did you enter it, was it today.and i guess you are short, plz tell and maybe i can tell you perhaps why i wouldnt of traded it. i honestly come here to learn but not berate people especially leaders

also i am up late. i had a big loss very early this morning and in a few hours time i will be trading

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1345557720.php

Snippet:

Posted Tuesday, 21 August 2012 | Share this article| Source: GoldSeek.com


By Scott Pluschau
The Dollar Index failed to hold the rising trendline support of the triangle on the near term 30 minute chart, see left hand side below. This trendline was identified early in this past weekend's update on the Dollar Index.

The dominant pattern is still the bullish "Cup with a handle" on the weekly chart. The Bulls are struggling with the extended neckline support and failed patterns are very strong signals.
http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/8-21sp/1.png
Please click here for a larger chart.
The link to this past weekend's update on the Dollar Index can be found here: http://scottpluschau.blogspot.com/20...ds-copper.html

Moving on to the precious metals, they are breaking out of chart patterns that were identified in this past weekend's updates as well.

The latest post on silver from last night can be found here: http://scottpluschau.blogspot.com/20...anagement.html

In Gold, the left hand side one hour chart highlights in the blue oval a textbook breakout from a tight consolidation pattern that was clearly seen on the smaller degree timeframe this morning. This took place right at triangle resistance which is the ideal trade setup.

The right hand side chart below highlights the breakout of the triangle pattern on the daily chart.

It's been a while since gold has looked this bullish and I imagine the gold bugs will be coming out of the woodwork. The important thing to remember for me is to stay disciplined and follow the trade plan with the proper "risk management" and "money management". Leave emotions out of trading decisions.

Let's see how the metals finish today in terms of the close and the end of the day volume.

It is important to note that gold is approaching major trendline resistance.
http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/8-21sp/5.png
Please click here for a larger chart.

...Day traders have to decide whether it's a trend day or a consolidative day. Given the choppiness of conditions and the lack of important fresh developments, we are more inclined to see the latter. Look for the dollar to stabilize and claw back some of its losses.....

From;
http://seekingalpha.com/article/8193...-doesn-t-break

On the other hand we are now 900+ pips under the weekly 200 MA with the MA only falling 2.1 pips per week.

Perhaps as seen many times before we are due for a sizeable retracement toward 1.33/34 over the next 3-4 months.

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...e+Saville&mk=1

The answer to the above question is no, meaning that "Austrian Economics" makes no prediction about whether the future will be inflationary or deflationary. That's why some adherents to "Austrian" economic theory predict inflation while others predict deflation. An economic theory can give you an idea of what will happen if certain policies are implemented; it doesn't tell you what will happen regardless of policy choices. To explain what we mean we will zoom in on two famous quotes of Ludwig von Mises, the most important economist of the "Austrian" school.

Here's the first quote:

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

The first sentence of this quote is sometimes taken out of context as part of an argument in favour of deflation. It could be construed, if considered in isolation, as a statement that a period of deflation must follow a credit-fueled boom. However, no good economist, let alone the greatest economist of the past century, would ever claim that price deflation was inevitable regardless of what was happening to the money supply. To do so would be to claim that the law of supply and demand did not apply to money. In the real world there will always be a link between money supply and money purchasing power. The link is complex, but it will always be possible to reduce the purchasing power of money by increasing its supply.

The second sentence provides the necessary clarification. In essence, it says that a boom fueled by a great credit expansion can collapse in one of two ways. The first is by voluntarily ending the credit expansion. This would generally involve doing nothing or very little while a corrective process ran its course. The other is by relentlessly persisting with credit expansion in a non-stop effort to avoid a crisis. This would lead to a total catastrophe of the currency system, meaning that it would lead to the currency becoming completely worthless.

The first of the two alternatives is the deflation path. The second is the inflation path (relentless monetary inflation leading to hyperinflation and, eventually, to the currency becoming so devalued it no longer functions as money). Note that money can only collapse due to inflation. Deflation makes money more valuable.

The Fed is presently heading down the inflation path, but it doesn't have to stay on that path. A change of direction is possible.

We now move on to the other Mises quote mentioned in the opening paragraph:

"This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy.

But then, finally, the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against 'real' goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them."

The gist is that if the inflation policy continues for long enough then a psychological tipping point will eventually be reached. At this tipping point the value of money will collapse as people rush to exchange whatever money they have for 'real' goods. Mises refers to this monetary collapse as the "crack-up boom". Prior to this point being reached it will not be too late to abandon the inflation policy.

Today, the US is clearly still in the first stage of the inflationary process. If it continues along its current path then a "crack-up boom" will eventually occur, but there is no way of knowing -- and "Austrian" economic theory makes no attempt to predict -- exactly when such an event will occur. If the current policy course is maintained then the breakdown could occur within 5 years, but it could also be decades away. In addition, there is still hope that policy-makers will wake up and change course before the masses wake up and trash the currency.

The upshot is that "Austrian" economic theory helps us understand the damage that is caused by monetary inflation and what the relentless implementation of inflation policy will eventually lead to. That is, it helps us understand the effects of various policy choices. It doesn't, however, make specific predictions about whether the next few years will be characterised by inflation or deflation, because whether there is more inflation (there has been inflation and nothing but inflation for generations) or deflation will depend on the future actions of governments and central banks. Regardless of how they are defined, at this stage neither inflation nor deflation is inevitable.




This essay is excerpted from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com on 19th August 2012.

may i suggest u marry ur daughter to good human being and not white,black or brown and also may i suggest u keep ur daughter out of this trading discussion and let her enjoy childhood and innocence which is precious,markets not good and very stressful and not good for her development,let the girl complete her education and enjoy life and she shouldnt be even allowed to see the posts of this thread which is going to be bad influence on her becos here its dog eat dog world and many people live on cutting edge with lot of hard earn money and futures at risk
let me also say, long time ago i used to play market only on 1min time frame and i did made lot of money as well and in one particular year return were 635% on equity but i gave back everything plus 1000 % above it and its not funny.
now let me finish with saying of jiddu krishnamurthy an indian philospher,he says suggestion is a kind of violence.God bless u with lot of green pips and may ur Girl has beautiful future and all the happiness in the world.

its a good article cm.it will be a good idea if u can put gist of all u read in present context in ur own words daily just like PT put his update in the morning.dont worry about being right or wrong just give in a very consise manner what u think its going to happen tommorrow.cheers