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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #48,861
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:46am Aug 21, 2012 10:46am
Bearish engulfing in H1 .... Let the Game begin.
  • #48,862
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:48am Aug 21, 2012 10:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
No need for the article. It is absolutely correct that the option issuer saves money if the barrier is toasted. However, as I mentioned earlier today in another post, it all depends who the buyers are. If a large hedge fund is the buyer of those options, they will defend it.

Also as someone else posted, which is an excellent point, considering that the option buyers defended the bottom at 1.2040 by buying Euros, they would love nothing more than to offload those Euros now to defend the 1.2500 barrier.

Remember this is a DNT (Double No Touch)...
We been talking about that range (1.2000-1.2019 to 1.2460/1.2502) for how long now

Playin oscillators.. selling the top/ buyin the bottom till it breaks.... especially during this time of the year....

I also grabbed an AU short at the 1.0514 rejection(another biggy)
  • #48,863
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:50am Aug 21, 2012 10:50am
So far things are going the right direction. Made up for the small loss last night. Now hoping to get into the green for the week!

This is the best eur/usd thread on forexfactory in my opinion. I enjoy reading everyone's view and gaining insight on different trading styles. I am pretty new and just learning the ropes. Have a small account and just hoping to make a little weekend money for now but eventually would love to go full time. Appreciate all of you!
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  • #48,864
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:56am Aug 21, 2012 10:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
Hey buddy. I read it after I posted. You're absolutely correct and it makes sense. Don't stop posting because a few don't agree with what you posted. We all post what we know and that's that. Let the readers decide for themselves what they want to believe.. After all, it's not your money they are trading.

I post updates every day almost without fail. The majority of the time nobody takes any notice, but I still keep posting for those few who derive some value from it.
I read every page of this thread since around page 3040. I'm just a silent lurker most of the time

Lots of great info in here and I've learned the most out of this thread than many other places
  • #48,865
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:57am Aug 21, 2012 10:57am
Quoting PipTrapper

Remember this is a DNT (Double No Touch) spanning 1.2000 - 1.2500
That will be touched soon. Before tomorrow. 2520/30 is in for that move.

Barriers and options are a lovely thing from Mr.Coleman and he will defend this theory till the end
  • #48,866
  • Aug 21, 2012 11:01am Aug 21, 2012 11:01am
Wow! There is a gentlemen fight at piptrapper.com

Supporting PT though with Do Not Touch 1.25
  • #48,867
  • Aug 21, 2012 11:01am Aug 21, 2012 11:01am
Quoting iak_fx
That will be touched soon. Before tomorrow. 2520/30 is in for that move.

Barriers and options are a lovely thing from Mr.Coleman and he will defend this theory till the end
In my experience major options barriers tend to be defended successfully far more than they are hit in these markets...

Playing the percentages its typically more profitable to play the part of the defender than the attacker.

Of course... Im wrong a lot so take it with a grain of salt
  • #48,868
  • Aug 21, 2012 11:02am Aug 21, 2012 11:02am
Quoting PipTrapper
No need for the article. It is absolutely correct that the option issuer saves money if the barrier is toasted. However, as I mentioned earlier today in another post, it all depends who the buyers are. If a large hedge fund is the buyer of those options, they will defend it.

Also as someone else posted, which is an excellent point, considering that the option buyers defended the bottom at 1.2040 by buying Euros, they would love nothing more than to offload those Euros now to defend the 1.2500 barrier.

Remember this is a DNT (Double No Touch)...
Don't get me wrong PT, I would love nothing more than to see this dog tank hard. I just don't want to get my scuba gear out in order to stay afloat here. Mearly breaking even would make my day at this point.

I am tempted here to take another short but momentum has not eased yet. We've not seen usual reversals or weakness today at expected times.

For those who are not trading in micro or mini lots, this move is hurting many traders (as we've seen here). My hammer is at the daily 100SMA or I will scale in as the price drops below 1.2450, it's too risky at this level.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #48,869
  • Aug 21, 2012 11:08am Aug 21, 2012 11:08am
wow e/u been a little beauty for some. i still have not traded since this morning but 2different people i taught phoned me up from spain lol saying they more or less smashed it to pieces using directional movement cross overs and not blinkered
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #48,870
  • Aug 21, 2012 11:08am Aug 21, 2012 11:08am
Trading tip from Swissy, and something to think about: Looking at seasonal price activity, summer research study shows that the U.S Dollar tends to decline in August. This seems to be holding true so far this month. As traders we need to make sure this is taken into account as part of our short-midterm analysis.

Study also shows that 8 out of the past 11 years, the dollar fell against the Euro in September as well. A matter of fact, dollar weakness was the dominant trend against most majors in September. Just something to ponder as we begin to look at next month. The trends may not apply this year as we have the on going Euro crisis, but you shouldn't rule it out altogether. If you're a day trader it doesn't matter which direction the market moves, just as long as it does.

Hope this has been informative. Happy Trading.
  • #48,871
  • Aug 21, 2012 11:09am Aug 21, 2012 11:09am
Quoting Wulfgar
In my experience major options barriers tend to be defended successfully far more than they are hit in these markets...

Playing the percentages its typically more profitable to play the part of the defender than the attacker.

Of course... Im wrong a lot so take it with a grain of salt
Hi Wulfgar,
yes these Levels are defended. But i don't think it's because of options. Those are just too small money and also big market makers won't be succesfull to drive price let's say 30 pips or other way round. Sometimes it may be self-fulfilling prophecy. And it's round number.

I might be wrong too.
  • #48,872
  • Aug 21, 2012 11:11am Aug 21, 2012 11:11am
A possible H&S off the 5m...should run into some Res @..50 again...lets see
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Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #48,873
  • Aug 21, 2012 11:15am Aug 21, 2012 11:15am
Quoting Cgb
Don't get me wrong PT, I would love nothing more than to see this dog tank hard. I just don't want to get my scuba gear out in order to stay afloat here. Mearly breaking even would make my day at this point.

I am tempted here to take another short but momentum has not eased yet. We've not seen usual reversals or weakness today at expected times.

For those who are not trading in micro or mini lots, this move is hurting many traders (as we've seen here). My hammer is at the daily 100SMA or I will scale in as the price drops below 1.2450,...
I added @ 1.2440 then @ 1.2480. I still have shorts far below @ 1.2180 sell stops triggered by Draghi's speech. Let see how it goes.

To play conservative is better option for daily IMO.
  • #48,874
  • Aug 21, 2012 11:18am Aug 21, 2012 11:18am
Quoting Wulfgar
In my experience major options barriers tend to be defended successfully far more than they are hit in these markets...

Playing the percentages its typically more profitable to play the part of the defender than the attacker.

Of course... Im wrong a lot so take it with a grain of salt
Your experience is bang on. So either we are both wrong, or 1.2500 will not be touched.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #48,875
  • Aug 21, 2012 11:19am Aug 21, 2012 11:19am
Quoting iak_fx
Hi Wulfgar,
yes these Levels are defended. But i don't think it's because of options. Those are just too small money and also big market makers won't be succesfull to drive price let's say 30 pips or other way round. Sometimes it may be self-fulfilling prophecy. And it's round number.

I might be wrong too.
that is all true

I just trade channels and trends in the time frames I play...

this is my channel top and given all available info making an educated decision my best R:R is a short from up here till im proven wrong...

If im wrong it wont be the first time and Im damn certain it wont be the last.... the option barrier is just another little tidbit in my favor
  • #48,876
  • Aug 21, 2012 11:23am Aug 21, 2012 11:23am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Trading tip from Swissy, and something to think about: Looking at seasonal price activity, summer research study shows that the U.S Dollar tends to decline in August. This seems to be holding true so far this month. As traders we need to make sure this is taken into account as part of our short-midterm analysis.

Study also shows that 8 out of the past 11 years, the dollar fell against the Euro in September as well. A matter of fact, dollar weakness was the dominant trend against most majors in September. Just something to ponder...
Thanks for brightening my day!
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #48,877
  • Aug 21, 2012 11:23am Aug 21, 2012 11:23am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Trading tip from Swissy, and something to think about: Looking at seasonal price activity, summer research study shows that the U.S Dollar tends to decline in August. This seems to be holding true so far this month. As traders we need to make sure this is taken into account as part of our short-midterm analysis.

Study also shows that 8 out of the past 11 years, the dollar fell against the Euro in September as well. A matter of fact, dollar weakness was the dominant trend against most majors in September. Just something to ponder...
Thanks for those stats Swissy. Much appreciated
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #48,878
  • Aug 21, 2012 11:27am Aug 21, 2012 11:27am
Quoting Cgb
Thanks for brightening my day!
Sorry buddy. Well look on the bright side, if you look at the 4hr charts of most majors, one would think the E/U would fall inline in a matter of time if not, into the close of NY. Slowly be surely. At least I hope so.
  • #48,879
  • Aug 21, 2012 11:28am Aug 21, 2012 11:28am
Quoting iak_fx
Hi Wulfgar,
yes these Levels are defended. But i don't think it's because of options. Those are just too small money and also big market makers won't be succesfull to drive price let's say 30 pips or other way round. Sometimes it may be self-fulfilling prophecy. And it's round number.

I might be wrong too.
Oh of course it is a self fulfilling prophecy, and as such it makes the defense that much easier for the option buyers.

Speaking of self-fulfilling prophecies, you may as well add all technical indicators to the list, coz that's exactly what they are. If nobody used Fibos to choose their entries and exits, then they wouldn't be worth anything. Same applies to MAs, trend lines, Oscillators, harmonic patterns and Price Action. I could be wrong about this, but not likely
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #48,880
  • Aug 21, 2012 11:28am Aug 21, 2012 11:28am
Quoting Cgb
Don't get me wrong PT, I would love nothing more than to see this dog tank hard. I just don't want to get my scuba gear out in order to stay afloat here. Mearly breaking even would make my day at this point.

I am tempted here to take another short but momentum has not eased yet. We've not seen usual reversals or weakness today at expected times.

For those who are not trading in micro or mini lots, this move is hurting many traders (as we've seen here). My hammer is at the daily 100SMA or I will scale in as the price drops below 1.2450, it's...
Today is another day when PA moves in a straight line and technical indicators does not work. As we can see PA is slightly fading at the moment and almost stopped at PT-Point.

PA is above Mean from yesterdays move on Short and Long term so it suppose to hit the higher TL that was my projection in the morning and so it did. As PT said earlier this PA may not quickly come down but wait for tommorows event and decide.

My take for rest of the hours is, bearish engulfing on H1, price may come down 1.2455 area in couple of hours but over all hovering in the area for a decission making news.
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