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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #48,841
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:03am Aug 21, 2012 10:03am
RSI on the 1HR hit 89...don't see that too often
  • #48,842
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:09am Aug 21, 2012 10:09am
Quoting neuron
whew that was quite the rally, hope everyone is okay

burned my fingers a little but still here, adding some shorts


i see a headline that says "Fed's Lockhart Kills Hopes Of Further QEasing"

 shouldn't that result in USD to go up and therefore EUR/USD to drop?

IIRC last time there was QE hope and then diminished, it resulted in a heavy drop
Lockhart is not the entire committee. The market will want to see the minutes first.
Hope your fingers heal soon.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #48,843
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:10am Aug 21, 2012 10:10am
Quoting nathan25x
RSI on the 1HR hit 89...don't see that too often
yes this is wierd nat, hasn't happened since ages.. "are you pondering what am pondering?"
Life is beautiful the way you dress it.
  • #48,844
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:11am Aug 21, 2012 10:11am
Quoting catwoman
so... E/U will go to 1,2440 again, then we will see if it leaves a double top or if it gets higher

E/U weekly
Attachment

E/U daily
Attachment

broke 1.2440. so, we are already on the way to:

Quoting catwoman
hello hello, i'm back again

E/U will go to 1,2620?
  • #48,845
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:12am Aug 21, 2012 10:12am
Quoting fxcode
yes this is wierd nat, hasn't happened since ages.. "are you pondering what am pondering?"
hehe...i would say so.........
  • #48,846
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:13am Aug 21, 2012 10:13am
Quoting catwoman
broke 1.2440. so, we are already on the way to:



We have to get past 1.2500 first. Time will tell.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #48,847
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:15am Aug 21, 2012 10:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
We have to get past 1.2500 first. Time will tell.
yeah, right!
  • #48,848
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:16am Aug 21, 2012 10:16am
40 more pips for the daily 100 SMA. Looks like we might get there today or before tomorrow's FOMC meeting minutes.

Gold at the daily 200SMA.

This is now hurting, but I did talk about this on Friday
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #48,849
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:17am Aug 21, 2012 10:17am
EUR/USD rally: It’s not about valuation, it’s about the currency’s continued existence

Written by Jamie Coleman
August 21, 2012 at 14:45 GMT

The rally in EUR/USD in recent days has less to do with the market making a judgement on whether the Draghi Plan will work and more to do with the fear on the part of shorts that Europe will get its act together just long enough to put a hurtin’ on the shorts.

You need look no further back in time to the end of June when EUR/USD rallied to nearly 1.2700 after the EU summit.

Did that summit solve the problem? No. But it did show a shift in the balance of power from the German-led core to the Italian-led periphery. We subsequently fell to lows for the year at 1.2042 within weeks, but not before spanking the shorts.

Will the Draghi plan to lower sovereign yields in the periphery solve all the euro zones problems? Unlikely. But it will buy the euro zone more time to move toward fiscal union, which will be the ultimate game-changer. It takes the risk of a chaotic breakup of the euro zone off the table and delays the day of reckoning, again. It could be an uncomfortable few weeks ahead for those short of EUR/USD. Some had priced in the very worst, a euro break up, and they look likely to be disappointed near-term.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #48,850
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:20am Aug 21, 2012 10:20am
Quoting Cgb
40 more pips for the daily 100 SMA. Looks like we might get there today or before tomorrow's FOMC meeting minutes.

Gold at the daily 200SMA.

This is now hurting, but I did talk about this on Friday
Chicken Licken told everybody that the sky is falling. Then he stayed outside and the sky fell on him

http://jeanporter.cmswiki.wikispaces..._%26_acorn.jpg

Moral of the story is "Don't allow yourself to get lured in by Foxy Loxy"

http://blog.georgetowncrossing.net/f.../foxy-loxy.jpg

If you don't know the story, go here > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sky_Is_Falling_(fable)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #48,851
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:24am Aug 21, 2012 10:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
We have to get past 1.2500 first. Time will tell.
Gimme 1.25 so I can short this shit all the way to 1.20! tomorrow should be fun
  • #48,852
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:27am Aug 21, 2012 10:27am
Quoting RodMca
Gimme 1.25 so I can short this shit all the way to 1.20! tomorrow should be fun
Tomorrow after FOMC minutes.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #48,853
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:28am Aug 21, 2012 10:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
Tomorrow after FOMC minutes.
The higher it goes the better the opportunity I might even consider a short on gold make some good money so I can relax for rest of week! You hold that short position at 1.2480 or are you waiting for tomorrow
  • #48,854
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:31am Aug 21, 2012 10:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
[b]EUR/USD rally: It’s not about valuation, it’s about the currency’s continued existence

Written by Jamie Coleman
August 21, 2012 at 14:45 GMT

[i][color="DarkSlateBlue"]The rally in EUR/USD in recent days has less to do with the market making a judgement on whether the Draghi Plan will work and more to do with the fear on the part of shorts that Europe will get its act together just...

PT, I hear ECB will do intervention, is that true?
AM Signal Provider
  • #48,855
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:33am Aug 21, 2012 10:33am
Quoting PipTrapper
Tomorrow after FOMC minutes.
Hi PT. Do you think this will plummet tomorrow or sometime soon?? Some warming advice would be good at the moment as im seriously over leveraged and up to my neck in it at the moment. S&P seems to be backing off a bit now. And as i said in earlier post i was looking at gold to top out at 1641
  • #48,856
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:33am Aug 21, 2012 10:33am
Quoting PipTrapper
Chicken Licken told everybody that the sky is falling. Then he stayed outside and the sky fell on him
I know the story but my name is CGB, not Goldman Sachs. The barrier on Cable just got blown out, what makes you think the one on the Euro will hold?

I'm looking for the an article on how it's cheaper sometimes for the brokerage house to let the barrier break than to pay it out. They would lose less. But can't find it right now. Maybe somebody remembers where that article is.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #48,857
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:35am Aug 21, 2012 10:35am
For those of you who are not restricted by web filters, I invite you to visit my blog and read the comments made by Jim and then read my response.

Jim makes a good point but in my opinion he is wearing blinders. Much like some traders who only focus on a single aspect of how the markets work and deny all other influences, he seems to be fixated on the idea that the EUR/USD pair trades as a single entity and is not influenced by anything other than the big boys stealing from the little guy. Comments are always welcome.

Here's the link > http://www.piptrapper.com/eurusd-out...t-august-2012/

If you cannot follow the link, let me know and I will post the comments here.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #48,858
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:37am Aug 21, 2012 10:37am
Quoting AaronWard
Hi Wulf, Hope all is well. A 800 pip spike in the EU (either way) is pretty much normal volatility for this super turbocharged pair.
hey bud

Ya but we are still in the dead of summer... it would take a ton to shoot this sucker past this 1.2460/1.2502 area...

I established a short at the R3 ... lets see if we can get a real break with a little momentum now that London is offline... the 2481 has gotta hold(as the R3 does like 95% of the time on the rare occassions it is hit)

just playing the probabilities is all we can really do
  • #48,859
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:41am Aug 21, 2012 10:41am
Quoting Cgb
I know the story but my name is CGB, not Goldman Sachs. The barrier on Cable just got blown out, what makes you think the one on the Euro will hold?

I'm looking for the an article on how it's cheaper sometimes for the brokerage house to let the barrier break than to pay it out. They would lose less. But can't find it right now. Maybe somebody remembers where that article is.
No need for the article. It is absolutely correct that the option issuer saves money if the barrier is toasted. However, as I mentioned earlier today in another post, it all depends who the buyers are. If a large hedge fund is the buyer of those options, they will defend it.

Also as someone else posted, which is an excellent point, considering that the option buyers defended the bottom at 1.2040 by buying Euros, they would love nothing more than to offload those Euros now to defend the 1.2500 barrier.

Remember this is a DNT (Double No Touch) spanning 1.2000 - 1.2500
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #48,860
  • Aug 21, 2012 10:44am Aug 21, 2012 10:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
Lockhart is not the entire committee. The market will want to see the minutes first.
Hope your fingers heal soon.
like a well seasoned chef my fingers are calloused from the heat

btw been lurking your blog and tweets, excellent!
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