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  • #2,821
  • Aug 18, 2012 6:56pm Aug 18, 2012 6:56pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Something from Friday's Q&A in the Trading Room.

Someone took an FTB long based on the AU 15min RBR marked below
I never would have spotted that one!

I've attached a chart of what I thought would have been a more obvious setup. It's also a bit of a personal note I picked up from one of your webinars i.e. dropping down a timeframe to pinpoint the moment where the S/D imbalance occurs for a potential FTB setup.

Have I read the charts correctly?

I've indicated a 30m S zone then zoomed into the 5m chart to refine where S overcame D before price retesting that area of fresh S.

Hope the charts make sense and I haven't misinterpreted the information.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 379_audusd 30m.jpg Size: 82 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 377_audusd 5m.jpg Size: 109 KB
  • #2,822
  • Aug 19, 2012 4:11am Aug 19, 2012 4:11am
Quoting 5.25
I never would have spotted that one!

I've attached a chart of what I thought would have been a more obvious setup. It's also a bit of a personal note I picked up from one of your webinars i.e. dropping down a timeframe to pinpoint the moment where the S/D imbalance occurs for a potential FTB setup.

Have I read the charts correctly?

I've indicated a 30m S zone then zoomed into the 5m chart to refine where S overcame D before price retesting that area of fresh S.

Hope the charts make sense and I haven't misinterpreted the information....
Yes this was a much more obvious supply zone...I'd actually talked through this one in the TR during the week but wasn't around to trade it myself.

In short your analysis was correct...I've just gone through it again in excruciating detail (i.e. down to M1) to highlight the point about lower time frames and finding the key areas that were broken on the way down which confirm to us where to expect supply on the retrace.

Firstly, the M30 zone as I would broadly defined it and what I'd be looking for in terms of key areas that were broken within this supply on M5 and M1.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au30min.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aum5.png Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aum1.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #2,823
  • Aug 19, 2012 4:15am Aug 19, 2012 4:15am
Cont...

Next what actually happened as per M5 and M1 charts.

Notice that:

a) the lower edge did 'react' but as expected it was rather weak.

b) the mid zone previously highlighted is where price met strong supply and notice the importance and reacting around that mid point SR line.

c) price fell after a small FB off the top of the mid range - this was clearly a liquidity spike (an attempt to fool novice traders that a breakout upwards is coming) - look at how that strong bullish bar was reversed (this highlights again a previous point about not being scared of strong moves).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: m5before and after.jpg Size: 71 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: m1after.jpg Size: 75 KB
  • #2,824
  • Aug 19, 2012 4:23am Aug 19, 2012 4:23am
Quoting Chanya
Cool . LJ , when do you move to BE ??? What criteria do you use to reduce your risk when the trade is taken ???
Trade management is down to individual personalities IMO.

All I do is identify FLR/S's in the same was I identify SR's SD's that I want to base entries upon, weigh up the strength of the setup relative to the FLR'S - for example is the FLR/S an untested fresh SR/SD or has it been tested multiple times and likely consumed now - the latter of course meaning there is a higher chance of a continuation breakout.

Do I have a bias from other means, higher TF picture, fundamentals etc. Is the pair trending or moving sideways, is the market overall giving nice trend moves or choppy price action.

How is price approaching the FLR/S (price action).

I look at all the above to make a decision in line with my personality. Personality plays an important part in trading and especially in trade management as it governs whether we are more suited to trying to catch runners i.e. swing trading (resulting in a potentially lower win rate but higher average R) or vice versa.

Personally, I'm not a swing trader (well not based on the higher TF), I identify an area that I believe is where price should move to with high probability and then I bank profit there, if price action suggests otherwise I react accordingly. But my stock approach is to bank a good chunk of a position at a pre-identified FLR/S.
  • #2,825
  • Aug 19, 2012 5:10am Aug 19, 2012 5:10am
I went over your free videos and find them among the best I've encountered.
Surely its something that many people talked about allready, but your approach is to the point, giving a good amount of usefull information without using to much air, so to say.

So I thank you for your efforts.

What I've liked the most is when you suggested to take advantage of a confirmed price pattern. To adjust your risk to the upside, when you get the signals you were waiting form. For example, when a bull flag forms, you initially enter at the support zone and add you your position when we see the break, which confirms the pattern itself.
I like that. We need to squeeze the MF when we get the chance

I do use position adding, but I always wait till a new S/R zone is established and confirmed (like on the pic). I'll surely continue to do that, but your breakout approach will be added to my arsenal.

So, tnx again and I'll be lurking around
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 183 KB
Thoughts are things
  • #2,826
  • Aug 20, 2012 4:27am Aug 20, 2012 4:27am
Not sure if this constitutes as true compression, but I'm certainly watching how AUDUSD unfolds as we rise into a DBD area of S.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DBD.jpg Size: 158 KB
  • #2,827
  • Aug 20, 2012 4:36am Aug 20, 2012 4:36am
DBD?
Thoughts are things
  • #2,828
  • Aug 20, 2012 4:43am Aug 20, 2012 4:43am
Quoting 5.25
Not sure if this constitutes as true compression, but I'm certainly watching how AUDUSD unfolds as we rise into a DBD area of S.
I'm already in at 1.0467, but I don't think it is fully compressed.
  • #2,829
  • Edited 5:30am Aug 20, 2012 4:47am | Edited 5:30am
Quoting Balhana
I'm already in at 1.0467, but I don't think it is fully compressed.
I'm in also at the same level prior to your post. I also agree that it is not fully compressed. I have a tentative D1 bias to the downside on this too, but I'm trying to remain objective.

Quoting Quezoy
DBD?
DBD = Drop Base Drop
RBR = Rally Base Rally
DBR = Drop Base Rally
RBD = Rally Base Drop

They are a form of where S and D imbalance occurs.
  • #2,830
  • Aug 20, 2012 4:54am Aug 20, 2012 4:54am
Quoting 5.25
Not sure if this constitutes as true compression, but I'm certainly watching how AUDUSD unfolds as we rise into a DBD area of S.

I wasnt sure about the compression either, i wanted to see it wind a bit tighter, so im just sat watching it for the moment...
No more DOH! trades
  • #2,831
  • Aug 20, 2012 5:09am Aug 20, 2012 5:09am
Quoting Balhana
SL at BE+1.
I'm still in this GU trade because I moved SL up to 1.5730....
  • #2,832
  • Aug 20, 2012 5:37am Aug 20, 2012 5:37am
Sold UJ 79.55
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,833
  • Aug 20, 2012 6:19am Aug 20, 2012 6:19am
Quoting 5.25
Not sure if this constitutes as true compression, but I'm certainly watching how AUDUSD unfolds as we rise into a DBD area of S.
Quoting nonethewisa
I wasnt sure about the compression either, i wanted to see it wind a bit tighter, so im just sat watching it for the moment...

Looks like ive missed the boat on this one
No more DOH! trades
  • #2,834
  • Aug 20, 2012 6:45am Aug 20, 2012 6:45am
Quoting nonethewisa
Looks like ive missed the boat on this one
Closed 2/3 at 1.0440 for +54 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au01.jpg Size: 94 KB
  • #2,835
  • Aug 20, 2012 6:49am Aug 20, 2012 6:49am
Quoting Balhana
Closed 2/3 at 1.0440 for +54 pips.
Well done, perhaps next time i wont be too fussy
No more DOH! trades
  • #2,836
  • Aug 20, 2012 6:50am Aug 20, 2012 6:50am
Quoting nonethewisa
Looks like ive missed the boat on this one
There'll be others I'm sure

Banked some profits at 2R. At BE and holding out for a larger move based on the D1 bias.

Good start to the week, especialy when a trade plays out the way you anticipated. Minimal draw down can only help with refining R:R and entry.

My trade mamangement still sucks though! LOL
  • #2,837
  • Aug 20, 2012 7:07am Aug 20, 2012 7:07am
Nice one folks on AU, I was busy with other things this morning so didn't catch it myself, but I know some of my trading room did too.

It was a nice FTB at a DBD, as per Balhana's comments it's not fully compressed.

In terms of trade management I would have been expecting a move through the M30 SR of 1.0454 because of a) this area was spiked on the breakout north, b) daily TF shows sellers in control, c) comments that were crossing the wires at the time and d) the decent size 30min bar heading into this area - that shows the bar previous to that was demand consumption and not rejection and again that sellers are in control.
  • #2,838
  • Aug 20, 2012 7:12am Aug 20, 2012 7:12am
Quoting 5.25
There'll be others I'm sure

Banked some profits at 2R. At BE and holding out for a larger move based on the D1 bias.

Good start to the week, especialy when a trade plays out the way you anticipated. Minimal draw down can only help with refining R:R and entry.

My trade mamangement still sucks though! LOL

The feeling you get when trades go to plan and targets are hit, doesn't half help to offset the bad feelings when you get it wrong
No more DOH! trades
  • #2,839
  • Aug 20, 2012 8:26am Aug 20, 2012 8:26am
Quoting Balhana
Sold UJ 79.55
Too slow. Closed 2/3 at 79.50 for +10 pips.
  • #2,840
  • Aug 20, 2012 8:55am Aug 20, 2012 8:55am
First trade of the week for me, a simple FB on H1, took all profit at FLR for a +1.45R win.

I wanted a lower retrace entry but my trade manager was messing me around so ended up with a higher entry than wanted, it also meant I missed a similar setup on Gold at the same H1 close.

Added price labels to show more clearly entry, SL, TP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eg.gif Size: 25 KB
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