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USD/CAD

  • #3,181
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:30am Aug 16, 2012 8:30am
Quoting OrionsWay
They sure seem pretty content on their positions
pretty good additions added

http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bullet...es_2012158.pdf
Interesting, buddy. Thanks for the link.
  • #3,182
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:58am Aug 16, 2012 8:58am
Quoting sasakiac
Glad to hear that and nice to see negative economy data from Canada !! I believe it's going to be a long bull if price doesn't close down below 0.987 by the end of week. Perhaps I shall drink more red bull!!!
Not that simple. Huge new buy orders BELOW price usually invite more bears in short term. On the other hand there is enormous amount of existing sell orders ABOVE current price, which should invite bulls **in this case to about 1,0050-1,0060** in medium term, sooner (days) or later (weeks).
  • #3,183
  • Aug 16, 2012 10:43am Aug 16, 2012 10:43am
Here goes my random prediction. Bottom @ .9850 and slowly back to par-ish.
  • #3,184
  • Aug 16, 2012 11:10am Aug 16, 2012 11:10am
Article worth reading: http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...ts/2012/08/16/
  • #3,185
  • Aug 16, 2012 11:15am Aug 16, 2012 11:15am
I understand that the energy is only 8% of Canadian gdp. I think it is irrelevant though, because oil stocks affect the movement of CND. I pointed out that the $djusol chart is hitting the wall soon or already. If you look at the chart, there is a possibility that the energy stocks will go down significantly within a month. I just tried to outline the extremes on the chart. Of course there is a scope for a break out etc,. we can't predict everything, but these levels served as a top for some time. If this is the case, the energy can go down as much as 10%, and that will definitely affect CND.

On the other hand, more and more people predicting a new bull market for the next few months. Time will tell.


Quoting Rknigh2
I am definitely not dismissing the chance of market unravelling (use/cad rising). However there are some flaws fundamentally in the reasoning the CAD should depreciate vs the USD if the market continues to rally or move sideways. Of course if you ignore the fundamentals, I can understand why technically irrational moves are frustrating.

Energy only makes up 8% of cdn GDP and energy equities are severely depressed still with lots of room up. CAD is moving on more than just energy.
  • #3,186
  • Aug 16, 2012 11:44am Aug 16, 2012 11:44am
Failed to take out 9900, so down we go. Expect some short covering to xx85 overnight, but relatively low vola into the number tomorrow. Good opportunity to sell vol/long delta to 9900 strike.
  • #3,187
  • Aug 16, 2012 1:20pm Aug 16, 2012 1:20pm
Quoting eurgbpaud
I am betting that it is less likely than going higher. I have a long position.
Half way there for 100 pips
  • #3,188
  • Aug 16, 2012 1:36pm Aug 16, 2012 1:36pm
LOL 2 -3 pippin everyone to death hahaaa
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #3,189
  • Aug 16, 2012 2:11pm Aug 16, 2012 2:11pm
OK..so it took out 60, which if you look back at the last bull run, 60 was not a fake or test of the breakout. It was a spike, so that's why I doubted it would be hit, but it was...

30 pips lower at 30 we have a a double bottom that I look at as a fake. Fakes have already taken stops at that level so that is not a spot that should be targeted for big money looking for liquidity. If it goes to 30, then it'll probably break 9800 which could lead us down to 9650 pretty quickly. Where we are at right now is crucial to hold, imo. This is THE line in the sand.
  • #3,190
  • Aug 16, 2012 2:48pm Aug 16, 2012 2:48pm
anyone got a buy script that allows u to buy/sell every 3 pip fluctuation, or whatever u set it at?
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #3,191
  • Aug 16, 2012 3:11pm Aug 16, 2012 3:11pm
If it does turn here, it'll be interesting to see how it emerges---fast or slow?

What type it turns out to be can help us add size at the proper places and time if we know how to handle it.

Adding size is very important, imo, but can be very dangerous as well. You have to treat the add like a new trade altogether. This isn't about averaging the two trades. It is about letting a winning position run to a big number while trying to add to the position without risking the the whole trade at each add.

Here's a chart of what I think the two most likely bull runs will look like.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #3,192
  • Aug 16, 2012 11:04pm Aug 16, 2012 11:04pm
I just added Hidden Divergence page to my site and used current USD/CAD situation on daily chart as an example. The hidden divergence is also starting to emerge on the 1 hour chart going back the last 10 (more or less) bars.

Top-Forex-Systems.com
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ucad hidden divergence daily.jpg Size: 94 KB
  • #3,193
  • Aug 17, 2012 4:21am Aug 17, 2012 4:21am
Quoting Zappa
OK..so it took out 60, which if you look back at the last bull run, 60 was not a fake or test of the breakout. It was a spike, so that's why I doubted it would be hit, but it was...

30 pips lower at 30 we have a a double bottom that I look at as a fake. Fakes have already taken stops at that level so that is not a spot that should be targeted for big money looking for liquidity. If it goes to 30, then it'll probably break 9800 which could lead us down to 9650 pretty quickly. Where we are at right now is crucial to hold, imo. This is THE line...
I see the double bottom at 0.9799 from late April 2012. The reversal zone is now likely to be around 0.9800 plus or minus 30 pips.
  • #3,194
  • Aug 17, 2012 7:37am Aug 17, 2012 7:37am
CPI just barely forced a touch of my sell order at .9900. We'll see if it holds down to the .9960 test again once NY opens.
  • #3,195
  • Aug 17, 2012 9:51am Aug 17, 2012 9:51am
It reversed, but it IS Friday and it might make a run for the 9870. I'm definitely not saying "go short", but be prepared for a possible scare.
  • #3,196
  • Aug 19, 2012 12:11pm Aug 19, 2012 12:11pm
Quoting Zappa
It reversed, but it IS Friday and it might make a run for the 9870. I'm definitely not saying "go short", but be prepared for a possible scare.
That could happen on Monday or Tuesday.
  • #3,197
  • Aug 19, 2012 4:35pm Aug 19, 2012 4:35pm
This USDCAD trade looks promising. There may be a possible bounce from the support zone. I am willing to risk playing with a larger position size on this trade. As the risk to reward ratio is very favourable at 1 is to 5.

LONG USDCAD around 0.9800-20
Stop loss below 0.9780
Target profit 1.0000


http://i47.tinypic.com/291ox36.png
  • #3,198
  • Aug 19, 2012 4:41pm Aug 19, 2012 4:41pm
Quoting ForexMGames
This USDCAD trade looks promising. There may be a possible bounce from the support zone. I am willing to risk playing with a larger position size on this trade. As the risk to reward ratio is very favourable at 1 is to 5.

LONG USDCAD around 0.9800-20
Stop loss below 0.9780
Target profit 1.0000


http://i47.tinypic.com/291ox36.png

Hi

USCAD passed 0.9903 hence buy I think!
  • #3,199
  • Aug 19, 2012 4:47pm Aug 19, 2012 4:47pm
Quoting Silvaa
Hi

USCAD passed 0.9903 hence buy I think!
I am waiting for it to move lower to 0.9820. If it reaches there, i will buy at the support level.
  • #3,200
  • Aug 19, 2012 8:04pm Aug 19, 2012 8:04pm
I like the trend lines, but I would much rather short it to the resistance and buy or sell after the fomc minutes. Any definitive QE talk could definitely send this thing right through the .9800 level. Flip side, any dovish comments could definitely be the catalyst for a reversal.
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