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EURUSD

  • #681,581
  • Aug 18, 2012 11:25am Aug 18, 2012 11:25am
This is a dull week. EURUSD is capped in a 120pips sideway range. The big players are the ones with the $$$ to move the markets. And they are mostly on their summer holidays sunbathing on a beach. Volatility will return when they return.

On thursday i gave a live call to LONG EURUSD. See link.

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/08/long-eurusd.html

Here are the results of that trade. From the 4hr chart below, EURUSD touched the 3rd point of the rising channel. It attempted to go up but only managed to rise for 100pips. It is enough for me to earn some profits on this trade.

http://i47.tinypic.com/1z5qm35.png

The 10min chart shows the details of my trade. Trading is a mind game. Remember this. Take what the markets give me.

http://i45.tinypic.com/2a989lf.png
  • #681,582
  • Aug 18, 2012 11:26am Aug 18, 2012 11:26am
Quoting ibram.forex
yeah me 2 i wonder if we will have a gap on monday morning and if we will in which direction?
No matter which direction I predict it will probably gap the opposite way..lol...at this point the world is upsidedown....Spain getting a huge bailout is now seen as a good thing.....one variable that could spike USD way up would be a strike on Iran by Israel....then are technicals are out the window...
  • #681,583
  • Aug 18, 2012 11:42am Aug 18, 2012 11:42am
Quoting Vachus
Bankers have huge liquidity under his finger that only big hedge funds are nearly as equal as him ...

It is true that banks and big hedge funds have huge liquidity. This huge liquidity gives them license to drive price all over the place.

But, at the end of the day (or the end of the timeframe you live on) when price returns to its starting point (it usually does) the only important questions are: where did I get in and where did I get out. That determines your profit or loss.

If a bunch of retailers come along (like a swarm of locusts) and sell in the same large pool of liquidity your hedge fund needs to get out of an equally large long position ... your hedge fund is screwed(!) to some extent.

The important point is that you can drive price any which way you want, but if you can't find enough liquidity to back out of it at a good price - you got problems.

The individual little guy does not have such problems as looking for liquidity to get in and out... which is why I said the whales have their problems too. Liquidity is a blessing and a curse.
  • #681,584
  • Aug 18, 2012 2:41pm Aug 18, 2012 2:41pm
Quoting RWalker
It is true that banks and big hedge funds have huge liquidity. This huge liquidity gives them license to drive price all over the place.

But, at the end of the day (or the end of the timeframe you live on) when price returns to its starting point (it usually does) the only important questions are: where did I get in and where did I get out. That determines your profit or loss.

If a bunch of retailers come along (like a swarm of locusts) and sell in the same large pool of liquidity your hedge fund needs to get out of an equally large long...
Hey Walker, i'm not talking about small spikes or even 100 pips up for few minutes. The fact of the matter is , a trader of EURUSD in a bank can sycronize a 4 hour higher price or an entire day and maintain that .. if we as small accounts trader can get a clear picture of our positions ( Brokers open positions and pending orders ) and have many communication channels - the early and professional players are lacking that ? i really doubt ...

All what a Bank trader who control at least 200 Million under his finger needs to do , is initiate the move - and the rest will follow .. of course i don't disagree with you, that in the end of the day - the currency will always go back to the point where games has started , if it was supported with good fundamentals and commercial demand. But sometimes , weaker currencies can crash !
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #681,585
  • Aug 18, 2012 2:54pm Aug 18, 2012 2:54pm
Forex is 3+ trillions of dollars a day. Of course much of that is between money center banks so it never sees the light of day of an open market.

But still retail trades amount to not much in the overall scheme of things.

Look at COT futures data for confirmation.
  • #681,586
  • Aug 18, 2012 5:31pm Aug 18, 2012 5:31pm
Quoting RWalker
It is true that banks and big hedge funds have huge liquidity. This huge liquidity gives them license to drive price all over the place.

...

The individual little guy does not have such problems as looking for liquidity to get in and out... which is why I said the whales have their problems too. Liquidity is a blessing and a curse.


Going through the posts past, it shows people have read so much books and also some misleading posts as it is so funny how much they try to paint the picture of the markets. They make it sound as if it's some star wars, banks moving price, hedge funds running stops and all that. It's obvious some don't even understand some basics such as market making, working orders, auctions, orderbooks, Level 1 and Level 2 pricing...and a host of others.

How can a banker with 200mill just initiate a move and the rest follows? People should try a visit to an Exchange floor and witness how orders are being worked. Ask yourself what market makers are looking at...and stop thinking it's some little guy at a T-desk that just feels like marking up prices 100pips or so.

Why does a currency fall when people are buying stocks, why is there demand for a currency when they are liquidating their stocks? When there's no reason to buy stocks, why does a currency gets stuck in a range? What happens when there is a ban placed on selling stocks short?

If aspiring traders can get a handle on all these, maybe they'll feel better when they stare at quotes on their tradestations and stop thinking wrongly

PS: some don't even know the meaning of NASDAQ.
Don't just beat the markets, leave bruises.
  • #681,587
  • Aug 18, 2012 5:40pm Aug 18, 2012 5:40pm
Quoting Tecnocrat
I feel we are talking about the phyloshophycal concept we are all One, a singularity in the materialization of the Universal Supra-consciousness. So... All the forex market is happening in your head, is an abstract expression of the reality you live in, but your creating your own reality trough the screens, you see yourself reflected in every thought or action you take. And the markets teach you to become the psychological Samurai you are needed to be in this kind of strange Quantic ~ Probabilistic ~ Potential environment of multigraphical data...
Elevating.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #681,588
  • Aug 18, 2012 5:55pm Aug 18, 2012 5:55pm
Quoting Motion


PS: some don't even know the meaning of NASDAQ.
NASDAQ is the new happy meal by Mcdonalds ..
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #681,589
  • Aug 18, 2012 5:57pm Aug 18, 2012 5:57pm
Quoting Vachus
NASDAQ is the new happy meal by Mcdonalds ..
fries and coke ..included ???
  • #681,590
  • Aug 18, 2012 6:01pm Aug 18, 2012 6:01pm
Quoting Piters
fries and coke ..included ???
With Fries and Coke , its called Goldman Sachs - because you are supposed to use the yellow goldy fries and install them in the plastic Cock sack before eating it ... it's a MacDonald conspiracy , maybe world order !
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #681,591
  • Edited 10:14pm Aug 18, 2012 6:03pm | Edited 10:14pm
Quoting Piters
fries and coke ..included ???
YES.

They also give you a new drink, so you would not think much about yourself.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #681,592
  • Aug 18, 2012 6:16pm Aug 18, 2012 6:16pm
Just to change the subject a bit, I find the extracted posts very interesting, here is one, hilarious:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=372973
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #681,593
  • Aug 18, 2012 7:39pm Aug 18, 2012 7:39pm
Quoting Motion


Going through the posts past, it shows people have read so much books and also some misleading posts as it is so funny how much they try to paint the picture of the markets.........


So when did you get to this clambake?

BTW just so you know there is also Level III but you have to be a market maker or NASD broker to get it. But you knew that huh.

And dark pools. And hft's high-frequency traders. And .... and ....

Throwing out the lingo doesn't prove much - other than using goggle to search terms out.
  • #681,594
  • Aug 18, 2012 7:42pm Aug 18, 2012 7:42pm
Quoting Vachus
NASDAQ is the new happy meal by Mcdonalds ..
  • #681,595
  • Aug 18, 2012 7:51pm Aug 18, 2012 7:51pm
Sound like we will have a BIG GAP UP in a few hours.
  • #681,596
  • Aug 18, 2012 7:54pm Aug 18, 2012 7:54pm
I don't know? I opened my window but I didn't hear anything?

Just someone saying, hey you're letting all the hot air in.
  • #681,597
  • Aug 18, 2012 8:39pm Aug 18, 2012 8:39pm
Quoting RWalker
You are arguing from the idea that "when you buy market actually sells" and therefore retail demand (buying activity) is not transmitted to the overall market - if I understand what you are saying.

But, from what I know, a market maker broker will either take a buy order and match it against internal sell orders or fill the order by taking an in-house short position. Then, the broker will likely go to directly or indirectly to the interbank market (after sizing issues have been handled) and take long positions to neutralize their outstanding...
i dont get how you jump to your conclusion that a retailer is trading effectively on the interbank. I think you need to reevaluate your logic. I noticed when I sold price ticked up. i did this test multiple times. Then i asked fxcm and they said the liquidity provider will either hedge your order or pass it in. If im a bank why would I put myself at risk when I know that the retailer has bad mm i can easily sway him from his money. The big orders I may put through since it might
be an informed trader with something i dont know. Get it? This seems to be the opposite of what you think? Makes more sense
to me.
  • #681,598
  • Aug 18, 2012 9:34pm Aug 18, 2012 9:34pm
O sleeping EURUSD beauty! When are you waking up? Which direction are you going? Are you going out with Mr Bull or the Mr Bear?

http://i49.tinypic.com/foiowg.jpg

This slumber of yours is causing many traders to be sleepy and not watch EURUSD attentively. At the point of maximum drowsiness, EURUSD will break out. And when it does, it may go onto a fast and furious trending mode.

So here are my 2 scenario analysis for the bulls and bears.

Scenario #1 (Mr Bull)
For the bulls to prevail, this has to happen.

http://i45.tinypic.com/29utvtx.png


Scenario #2 (Mr Bear)
For teddy bear to win, this is the possible situation.

http://i45.tinypic.com/2cwvqc9.png
  • #681,599
  • Aug 18, 2012 9:44pm Aug 18, 2012 9:44pm
let me add some fuel to hot toppig

i agree Forex market is over 4 trillion but how many % of this transaction actually get outside of broker and how many % reach real market (place where transaction can move the price )

Most of our order get filled locally and some traded against our broker, some case broker might send to there LP but Those LP could be market make it self so out order not going to make any changes on this market.

as far i know only institutional accounts are connected to real market most ecn account just a link to brokers network run by another BIG market maker
Mohan
  • #681,600
  • Aug 18, 2012 10:15pm Aug 18, 2012 10:15pm
Quoting mohan76
let me add some fuel to hot toppig
I do not belevie you can do that...
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
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