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  • #681,541
  • Aug 17, 2012 3:09pm Aug 17, 2012 3:09pm
[quote=sidhujag;5938285]u should go back if u dont know what stop hunting is..[/QUOTE
Thank You now i understand happens aloot saw it several times
  • #681,542
  • Aug 17, 2012 3:22pm Aug 17, 2012 3:22pm
Quoting sidhujag
hope ur trading demo... basically there are stops... banks make money by hitting those stops taking ur money.

When banks are trying to offset a large position, a bunch of retail traders (among others) may come along and game the move, which is very frustrating to any large player.

For example, suppose you are a large bank, hedge fund or sovereign with a huge long position from say the 1.2285 support level in EU... and there is some sizable liquidity up at the daily pivot around 2325 (where they would like to cash out). Well, a bunch of retail traders can come in like a swarm of locusts to sell at that level because they believe price will go down.

I imagine you would hear a string of profanity that would make a bookie blush as those bank traders see their ability to offset their exit go out the window as retailers come in and offset their entries into the same liquidity!!

If you think it's a one-sided game, you're wrong. Large players can get creamed just like the little guy.
  • #681,543
  • Aug 17, 2012 3:27pm Aug 17, 2012 3:27pm
Quoting RWalker
.....

If you think it's a one-sided game, you're wrong. Large players can get creamed just like the little guy.
When I hear retail traders talking about "kicking banker ass" I just have shake my head... these whales make the market move, and that makes it possible for the little guy to make money.

The little guy may be at a disadvantage in some ways, but the whales have their problems too.
  • #681,544
  • Aug 17, 2012 3:36pm Aug 17, 2012 3:36pm
Quoting RWalker
When I hear retail traders talking about "kicking banker ass" I just have shake my head... these whales make the market move, and that makes it possible for the little guy to make money.

The little guy may be at a disadvantage in some ways, but the whales have their problems too.
BTW: I'm not disagreeing with sidhujag, I'm just saying there are 2 sides to the story.
  • #681,545
  • Aug 17, 2012 4:44pm Aug 17, 2012 4:44pm
Quoting RWalker
If you think it's a one-sided game, you're wrong. Large players can get creamed just like the little guy.
... yes but not by the little guys.

They get creamed by other large players.

An analogy would be any pro team on any day (whatever sport) can beat any other pro team if the cicumstances are right but no amateur team (with out ringers ) can beat any pro team under any circumstance.
  • #681,546
  • Aug 17, 2012 4:49pm Aug 17, 2012 4:49pm
Quoting Stonar901
Thank You now i understand happens aloot saw it several times
Stops should be placed where the market won't touch them or if they are touched that is your signal to exit.

But otherwise leave worrying about stop hunting for the paranoid
  • #681,547
  • Aug 17, 2012 5:08pm Aug 17, 2012 5:08pm
Quoting SunTrader
Stops should be placed where the market won't touch them
  • #681,548
  • Aug 17, 2012 5:13pm Aug 17, 2012 5:13pm
Quoting Stonar901
why these sudden movements
I am sorry to tell you this but there is no such thing as sudden moves ( By which I suppose you mean " What the hell is going on " ??? ) ... Look at the chart below ... Every move that I marked with the thick black line was playable from the very first pip to the very last pip almost ... You just gotta know what to look for ....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 23 KB
Human
  • #681,549
  • Aug 17, 2012 6:03pm Aug 17, 2012 6:03pm
Quoting Chanya
I am sorry to tell you this but there is no such thing as sudden moves ( By which I suppose you mean " What the hell is going on " ??? ) ... Look at the chart below ... Every move that I marked with the thick black line was playable from the very first pip to the very last pip almost ... You just gotta know what to look for ....
Nicely said!


After the fact. Your chart should not stop there, you should have more yellow lines were there are no candles according to your logic.

Here's a hint. 1950 by end of month!
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #681,550
  • Aug 17, 2012 6:08pm Aug 17, 2012 6:08pm
Chanya, while I agree with you, might i point out that I can also tell you every move from pip to pip that you COULD have made AFTER the fact. Just remember hindsight is 20/20 while the future is not
  • #681,551
  • Aug 17, 2012 6:21pm Aug 17, 2012 6:21pm
Quoting mym1990
Chanya, while I agree with you, might i point out that I can also tell you every move from pip to pip that you COULD have made AFTER the fact. Just remember hindsight is 20/20 while the future is not
Correct.

As there are other points on that chart where price did not reverse at simply looking for supply/demand (swing points) levels.

Same as most everything else it works except when it doesn't work.

But it works real well in hindsight.
  • #681,552
  • Aug 17, 2012 6:22pm Aug 17, 2012 6:22pm
Quoting tonyo524
.........

Here's a hint. 1950 by end of month!
I bet it will still be 2012
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #681,553
  • Aug 17, 2012 6:53pm Aug 17, 2012 6:53pm
Quoting RWalker
When banks are trying to offset a large position, a bunch of retail traders (among others) may come along and game the move, which is very frustrating to any large player.

For example, suppose you are a large bank, hedge fund or sovereign with a huge long position from say the 1.2285 support level in EU... and there is some sizable liquidity up at the daily pivot around 2325 (where they would like to cash out). Well, a bunch of retail traders can come in like a swarm of locusts to sell at that level because they believe price will go down.

I...
Dude when your a retail trader you're not trading in the market, your hedging in the market with either a market maker or a bank. So when you buy market actually sells. THis is at the banks descretion as if you know what you are doing the bank wont want to take the loss he will process you direct. 99% of the time it wont be the case. So your logic doesn't add up from this point of view. If a bunch of retailers sell market will actually go up if the banks take the hedge. It's also their interest to preserve that area and will probably be buying so that they won't run negative P/L(stop hunt the little guy with bad money management). Times when you can actually win without this BS is during news because then the banks/large players are active in speculation and the market actually moves in the direction of fundementals.

Sometimes I see NFP come out bad and it does the opposite... either the banks are in on it together (most of the US banks during NFP will rule the move) or there is ashift in sentiment amonst banks/big players. Most counter intuititve moves for me I think are because of colluding rather than the general market thinking that is the right direction because of fundamentals. So you really are swimming in shark waters.. all you can really do is try to be on the banks side.
  • #681,554
  • Aug 17, 2012 7:01pm Aug 17, 2012 7:01pm
Quoting SunTrader
Stops should be placed where the market won't touch them or if they are touched that is your signal to exit.

But otherwise leave worrying about stop hunting for the paranoid
seen 2 many examples of pa hitting my sl to the pip and reversing to be classified as paranoia.. even with random sls... all u can do is go in with volume and good mm so that when ur right u win more. I guess recognizing patterns that have worked before woud probably help you choose entry... then if pattern doesnt work out take a small hit.
  • #681,555
  • Aug 17, 2012 7:24pm Aug 17, 2012 7:24pm
Quoting mym1990
Chanya, while I agree with you, might i point out that I can also tell you every move from pip to pip that you COULD have made AFTER the fact. Just remember hindsight is 20/20 while the future is not
What are you talking about when you say after the facts dude ???
After or before , logic remains the same or am I wrong ??? I myself did not take those trades because I trade H4 and Daily mostly ... Its better to know why the price moved then just move on thinking markets doing its thing wouldn't you agree ???

Quoting SunTrader
Correct.

As there are other points on that chart where price did not reverse at simply looking for supply/demand (swing points) levels.

Same as most everything else it works except when it doesn't work.

But it works real well in hindsight.
I agree , some points supply and demand did not cause price to reverse but why would you assume it does not work well but only in hindsight ???
Human
  • #681,556
  • Aug 17, 2012 8:20pm Aug 17, 2012 8:20pm
Quoting Chanya
I am sorry to tell you this but there is no such thing as sudden moves ( By which I suppose you mean " What the hell is going on " ??? ) ... Look at the chart below ... Every move that I marked with the thick black line was playable from the very first pip to the very last pip almost ... You just gotta know what to look for ....
The 4 hour chart seems fairly chaotic.... I get no sense of direction from it....throw out the technicals and wait on news...IMO
  • #681,557
  • Aug 17, 2012 9:31pm Aug 17, 2012 9:31pm
Quoting Chanya
..... I agree , some points supply and demand did not cause price to reverse but why would you assume it does not work well but only in hindsight ???
I say that only because the chart was posted, after the fact. I know supply/demand is accurate but then again so are other techniques.

No problem though I've done the same myself.
  • #681,558
  • Aug 17, 2012 9:34pm Aug 17, 2012 9:34pm
Quoting SunTrader
I say that only because the chart was posted, after the fact. I know supply/demand is accurate but then again so are other techniques.

No problem though I've done the same myself.
Maybe because the question was asked after the facts ... How could I have answered it before ???
Anyways , forget it ...
Regards
Human
  • #681,559
  • Aug 17, 2012 9:43pm Aug 17, 2012 9:43pm
Quoting sidhujag
seen 2 many examples of pa hitting my sl to the pip and reversing to be classified as paranoia.. even with random sls...
I try not to think that way.

For instance, we all can remember the big winner that got away. "If only I had kept trade on for just one more minute I would have caught the big move".

But we never seem to remember the big loser we avoided. Which btw is just like having a big winner.

Same thing in reverse - we remember the times when the market takes out our stop to the pip and then reverses. But we forget the times it just misses us.

IMO stops are protection from a big loss. Part of the price of that protection is the occassional "gotcha" stop run. So what I say.
My Avg profit/avg loss ratio can handle it. If it didn't then the least of my worries would be being stopped out.
  • #681,560
  • Aug 17, 2012 10:17pm Aug 17, 2012 10:17pm
Quoting SunTrader
I try not to think that way.

For instance, we all can remember the big winner that got away. "If only I had kept trade on for just one more minute I would have caught the big move".

But we never seem to remember the big loser we avoided. Which btw is just like having a big winner.

Same thing in reverse - we remember the times when the market takes out our stop to the pip and then reverses. But we forget the times it just misses us.

IMO stops are protection from a big loss. Part of the price of that protection is the occassional "gotcha"...
This is a vicious circle many traded are trapped in.

Everytime they take a big position, market either:

1. For some unknown reasons and against all calculations suddenly starts going against them, or
2. Snaps back just to take out their stops and starts going back, or
3. Misses their tps and then runs over their stoplosses, or
4. Their tps are never far enough to show decent profit but no matter how far is their sl, it always gets hit

The only solution to all this is to have a very good r/r, no less than 10/1
The Thief of Wall Street
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