EurAnalysis

Same difference. Crude rally risk-on sends the USD down and CAD Oil rally as money flows in and CAD goes up

yes indeed, i was trding from approx 07-00 this morning ie 14 hours ago. i remember you mentioning it hitting 9400 before climbing again and i managed some good simple trades

I think you had a tad too much wine with your supper

Let's not get Swiss going with the old man voodoo

goodnight guys, i got square eyes with monitor watching lol. take care

PerformanceChartshttp://finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gifChart: ALL | EUR/USD | GBP/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CAD | USD/CHF | AUD/USD | NZD/USD | EUR/GBP | GBP/JPYhttp://finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gifTimeframe: 5 minute | hourly | daily | weeklyhttp://finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gifhttp://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?euru...07482248720843

Weekly: As you can see I've drawn Fibs from weekly swing high and swing low. Also, there seems to have been pretty solid support at 1.215 during February of 2012. I am thinking this should act as good resistance now.

Also, the previous support of 1.215 is exactly on the 38.2% retracement level which gives confluence of this number.

Daily: Here is my entry point. I actually got in a few days ago at 1.16416 because we formed a double bottom on the daily chart. Today I scaled in one more position at 1.17472 as my indicator (green arrow) gave me a good signal. This is a complex indicator which uses multiple moving averages, RSI, as well as speed of price change. So this makes me feel even better about my trade earlier this week.

The following is the post I made on August 12th: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post5923957

So between these two positions I'm looking at 500-600 pips profit if I can reach my target as I almost always set my SL@160 and TP@280.

My analysis has been a bit crap the last 2 weeks, but here is my last attempt for this week:

From a technical perspective I expect a break to the upside, from a funnymental perspective I see a break to the downside. I'll play the technicals, looking for a long either today or on monday for a break to the north. If the support there doesn't hold I will find a short from the broken trendline.

I hope that works out for you Halifax.

*Personally, I don't trade EUR/USD very often at all. However, I really like a few different EUR cross pairs.

I am learning a lot about different people's trading styles though from reading this thread on a daily basis so I appreciate everybody's input. Keep up the good work Halifax.

I completely understand trading something like EUR/AUD, its a pair where for the last 6 months or so it's seemed really obvious that it's in a downtrend with little sign of stopping, but I hate "selling low" so I haven't had the guts to get into a trade on it - trends are not my style. Seems stupid now haha!

I've also been thinking that EU/CHF has been an almost perfect trade, buying the 1.2008 level and selling on spikes, but I think it's one where if it goes wrong you might find yourself bidless and exposed to massive slippage. This is another hindsight trade, safer earlier on but getting more precarious as time goes on

It's all about personal preference. Trends are not your style, but for me, that is just about the only way I can trade! LOL

I recently went long EURAUD so hopefully it works out. But overall, it is in a major downtrend on the monthly and weekly charts, so I'm kind of going against the trend. But I feel it is a safe trade when looking at the weekly and D1 chart for right now.

There was a high frequency trading system which revolved around the EURCHF, basically selling towards the peaks and buying at the lows. But I personally stay away from those kind of trades! You're right with the CHF, we really never know what could happen at any given time as far as intervention goes!

Happy Trading!

Still in the range so fingers crossed, hope the sales will not be disapointing.

Wish I was good at adding quotes together.


If you trade any pair that contains............usd, you are trading the dollar. Maybe for or against based upon your techie or fundie preference.

I am baffled! I do not trade what I think or feel. I trade probabilities of where Mr. Market wants to go.


Sorry for the babble. I'm tired, goodnight, see you in.......uh...........20 minutes! LOL

Never mind see you at frankie close! LOL

Good morning and Happy Friday to all.

As I mentioned in yesterday's update, the remaining market players are likely to keep trading the technicals and as anticipated, due to a lack of negative Euro news, real money traders stepped in at the H4 rising channel support. The bids took out weak shorts, but also as anticipated, ran out of steam at the falling trend line. Angela Merkel's comments yesterday that she supports the ECB's efforts to support the Euro also helped things along.

So now what? The economic calendar is pretty much empty today and it is Friday. On Fridays, one usually expects the week's trades to partially unwind as traders take profits off the table. If that is also the case today, then I would expect another play to the downside to retest the rising channel support once more which today comes in around 1.2270. That's only 80 pips from the current level of 1.2350 so it hardly makes for a full day's range, but it may be close enough to satisfy the markets, especially since the calendar is empty as mentioned above.

Admittedly, I have no clue where this is going today. That pretty much all depends on how net short this pair still is. With all the short covering and stop hunts we've had lately, I am sure it has been greatly reduced, but we will not know until the COT report is released after NY closes. I think the key to trading this pair today is in the small TF technicals. For swing and positional traders like me, it's a gamble either way. Perhaps someone else has a clue, but I have none. All I can say is that my mid to long term bias is still for more losses on this pair.

Technically, we are still in the bigger 1.2040 - 1.2440 range and are currently in a compressing range flanked by the H4 rising channel support and falling trend line. A break of one of these two closing in limits will define which larger range limits we test first. Perhaps today we may get a hint for Monday's move.

Anyway, clearly I am directionless in the short term. Fridays are quite often like this for me, which is why it is best for me to just sit back and watch.

Have a great day everyone. As I mentioned yesterday... Don't be a hero.

E/U H4

Today’s orderboard

Written by Pete Jackson
August 17, 2012 at 06:42 GMT

EUR/USD: Bids 1.2340/50, 1.2300/10, sell stops just below through 1.2290 ahead of larger bids down at 1.2240/60, (1.2242 strong Fibo supp), sell stops below. Offers start 1.2380/00 (55 day MA 1.2395) buy stops above ahead of tech res 1.2440/45, buys stops above 1.2450

GBP/USD: Bids 1.5690/1.5710 possible sell stops through 1.5685 more bids 1.5650/60 (tech supp Mon low 1.5657), weak sell stops through 1.5640. Offers 1.5740/55, (tech res 100 day MA 1.5752). Strong offers above ahead of 1.5800 (barrier?).

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.7880/90. Bids0.7840/50 and 0.7800/10, likely sell stops below.

USD/JPY: Offers 79.40/50 (exporters), buy stops through 79.50 ahead of tech res 79.65 (100 day MA) and offers 79.80/00. Larger buy stops above. Bids 79.00/10 (79.05 -55 day MA) sell stops through 78.90 ahead of more bids 78.50/60 with sell stops below.

EUR/JPY: Bids 97.85/95 and 97.50/60 sell stops below More bids down at 97.00/10, sell stops below. Offers and 98.40/50 and 98.90/00

AUD/JPY: Strong bids 82.90/00, stronger at 82.50/60 sell stops below and again through 82.00. Offers 83.40/50 and 83.90/00

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/30

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0450/60 (sovereigns, real money), sell stops through 1.0445, more bids 1.0400/10, and good tech support 1.0380/90. Strong offers start from 1.0500/10 and 1.0530/50

EUR/AUD: Offers 1.1790/1.1810 buy stops through 1.1815 a break above targeting 1.1856 (Jul 27 highs). Bids 1.1740/50 and 1.1690/00

NZD/USD: Strong offers 0.81.20/30 some buy stops above. Tech support 0.8080/85, sell stops below ahead of bids 0.8040/50 possible sell stops below through 0.8035 and psychological 0.8000 level

Today's Euro FX option expiries @ 14:00 GMT

1.2200
1.2275
1.2300
1.2350
1.2400


-

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...dicactors.html

Snippet:

Treasuries Snap Loss as Technical Sign Curbs 4-Week Slide


By Wes Goodman - Aug 17, 2012 2:27 AM ET


CurrencyMan:

What does this mean ?

Snippet:

Treasuries interrupted a four-week rout after a technical indicator showed yields have climbed to levels that may increase demand.

A “spectacular selloff” in prices paused when 10-year rates climbed as high as 1.86 percent yesterday, matching the 200-day moving average, said Peter Chatwell, a fixed-income strategist at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank inLondon. Treasuries tumbled this month as data on building permits, industrial production, retail sales and jobs all showed improvement.

The 10-year yield fell one basis point from yesterday’s closing level to 1.82 percent as of 7:25 a.m. in London, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The 1.625 percent security due in August 2022 rose 1/8, or $1.25 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 98 7/32. The rate climbed 36 basis points over four weeks, the longest run of increases since December 2010.

“We have seen a liquidation,” said Akira Takei, the head of the international fixed-income department at Mizuho Asset Management Co., which oversees the equivalent of $41.5 billion and is a unit of Japan’s third-biggest publicly traded bank.“The U.S. Treasury market now has very good value.”

Takei said he sold 10-year note futures contracts in July and is considering buying them back.

Japan’s 10-year rate fell 2 1/2 basis points, or 0.025 percentage point, to 0.83 percent. It was the first decline in four days.

CurrencyMan: The information above lets you understand what the Bond market and the Bond traders are doing and thinking.

It will help your trading if you understand more about the Bond market then you do now. The reason for that is the Money Flow. Money goes back and forth between Equities and Bonds. You can also call it Risk On or Risk Off.

Snippet:

Rebounding Indicators

The index of U.S. leading economic indicators probably rose 0.2 percent in July from June, rebounding from a 0.3 percent decline, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists before the Conference Board releases the figure today. The report gauges of the outlook for the next three to six months.

There’s less chance the Federal Reserve will increase its bond purchases to spur the economy, a policy known as quantitative easing, Chatwell said yesterday in an interview on the “Bloomberg - The First Word” radio program with Ken Prewitt.

“It’s quite a spectacular selloff,” he said. “There’s a lot more optimism within the market with regard to the outlook for the U.S. economy.”

There’s less risk that the Fed has to undertake more quantitative easing “in the short-to-medium term,” he said.

Yields at the 200-day average show there has been an“overshoot” in the market, he said.

CurrencyMan:

Now we see the thinking by some of the Economist's which usually means that they are wrong since much of the data is misleading because of FINANCIAL REPRESSION. Some who post here like PipTrapper understand the fundamentals very well and when we have a real fundamental and a misleading fundamental. The CONSENSUS of the market readers such as Economists and others sets the PERCEPTION short term until REALITY BITES by a new data number such as NFP which we should all understand is a manipulated number.

However it still moves markets and changes PERCEPTIONS.

Snippet:

‘Bearish Momentum’

“The bearish momentum is very strong” in the Treasury market, said Will Tseng, who studies technical levels for Treasuries at Shin Kong Life Insurance Co., which is based in Taipei and has the equivalent of $52.8 billion in assets. “I don’t think the 200-day level will be a barrier to stop the selloff.”

The next target will be 2 percent if yields rise beyond the 200-day average, Tseng said. He is avoiding Treasuries, he said.

Fed Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said the U.S. central bank has gone too far by pledging to hold its main interest rate near zero at least through late 2014. The Fed reiterated the pledge Aug. 1 as it seeks to support the U.S. economy.

“I would not have chosen to put that date as far out as the committee has chosen,” Kocherlakota said in response to an audience question after a speech yesterday in Williston, North Dakota.

CurrencyMan:

You can see the point that I make much clearer as you see the Technical Comments of Will Seng and the VIEW of Kocherlakota.

I trade as a CONTRARIAN which means I decide for myself by researching all data and points of view ESPECIALLY looking away from mainstream media spin and in most cases misinformed opinions based on faulty manipulated data.

Comparative Returns

U.S. government securities have handed investors a 1.6 percent loss this month as of yesterday, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes, as the nation’s economy and theEuropean debt crisis both showed signs of improving. An index of sovereign bonds around the world slid 0.7 percent, reflecting waning demand for the relative safety of debt.

The MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD) of stocks returned 3.1 percent including reinvested dividends, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The difference between yields on 10-year notes and same-maturity Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, a gauge of trader expectations for consumer prices over the life of the debt, has widened to 2.27 percentage points from 2.08 percentage points a month ago. The average over the past decade is 2.15 percentage points.

CurrencyMan:

You can see by the above comments how Bonds, Expectations and MONEY FLOW change the value of the Asset Classes that you trade. The TECHNICALS cannot give you this information. It can show you where the MONEY has been moving to NOT WHY !!!

Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel backed the European Central Bank’s conditions for helping reduce borrowing costs in indebted countries, saying Germany is “in line” with the ECB’s approach to defending the euro.

CurrencyMan:

And just to make my point about my comments ONE MORE TIME. Who do you believe ?

Angela Merkel or CurrencyMan ?

Have a great trading day and a good weekend.

P.S. Thank Goodness We have Harper in Canada and Merkel in Germany who ended this article by saying as follows;

“Time is pressing” on stamping out the debt crisis, though “on many of these issues we feel we’re on the right track,” Merkel told reporters in Ottawa yesterday at a joint press conference with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Euro-area policy makers “feel committed to do everything we can to maintain the common currency.”

P.P.S.

Didn't WE just see this movie starring Draghi and his supporting cast ?

...and there you have the key phrase. "Everything we can". The question is "What can they do?"
Working within the limits of the existing treaties, they can't do anything but hope that the profligate EZ nations take appropriate action to fiscally consolidate and bring their debt under control. Beyond that, it's a slippery slope for the EuroZone. This plays well for Germany's desire to see all other EZ nations employ or implement fiscal policies similar to those of Germany, followed by banking and fiscal supervision on an EU/EZ level. Then and only then can a move be made towards fiscal union and EuroBonds.

Hi guys,

so I came back from mountains. I would prefere to come back rich, but PA seems to really like monthly breakzone between 2346 and 2295 (which is heavily supported by weekly 2287 below). Moreover, 23288 Aftermath low, which is in mid of this, creates a nice magnet as well. I think we are going to close the week in this zone. I am watching weekly open today, as always on Friday.

I would be glad if someone told me what happened this week, so I dont need to read all posts. I ve already heard (in two posts above), that Merkel is supporting ECB. Thats quite a big news imo. I ve also heard, ECB borrowed quite loads to Spanish banks in July. Who could have expected that? . If there are any more, please tell me.

GL,

Tom