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  • #2,761
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:05am Aug 16, 2012 4:05am
Quoting jkrick33
enjoy, everyone should have this!
Very good. This is exactly what I was looking for. Thanks a lot!!
  • #2,762
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:52am Aug 16, 2012 4:52am
Quoting Balhana
"A compression into supply trade?" --> Take a look at my thought on your chart.
Sold CAD/JPY at 80.10
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  • #2,763
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:59am Aug 16, 2012 4:59am
Quoting Balhana
Sold CAD/JPY at 80.10
I'm in this too only my analysis was more on the higher TF. The 80BRN is proving to be quite the barrier.

I'm also short on a 1h FB EURSEK, straight into an area of supply. It's a very sluggish pair though, not one I've traded before. Tempted to scratch it as momentum is slow.
  • #2,764
  • Edited 6:55am Aug 16, 2012 6:33am | Edited 6:55am
Quoting Balhana
....But I'm telling you that there is NO difference between HTF and LTF. When you see a chart without any data on x-axis and y-axis, can you tell which timeframe it is? Think about it. Many J16 traders are just nervous about LTF.

I am trading both LTF & HTF but there are some important differents between them.

LTF

Cons:

-less capital needed in order to move/manipulate the price (more whipsaws and fake BOs = simple function of lower liquidity)
-larger spread/profit ratio (10 pip profit on pair with 3 pips spread equals -30% compared to 3% on 100 pips HTF profit. Its a huge difference which might kill even best trading method in longer term)
-One need to make very fast decisions. With lack of experience and chart time its very dangerous for new players.
-Large changes of volatility during the day (this is also an opportunity)

Pros:

-More good "A" opportunities for impatient traders <like me > (Most of the time James16 adepts are taking weak setups becouse of boredom while waiting days/weeks for good prob setups)
-Less time in the market = less prone to order-flow change becouse of some unexpected fundamentals/news
-With much more capital one can trade spot futures with much less cost/profit ratio. Personally i can't imagine anyone trading exotics on something below D1
  • #2,765
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:43am Aug 16, 2012 6:43am
And there is this argument about scanning >40 pairs every evening vs more opportunities on LTF (1 D1 candle = 10 H1 candles during higher liqudity times).
Most of the currency pairs are corellated with risk sentiment to some degree and that makes it complicated from time to time. LTF on the other hand presents more independent opportunities.
  • #2,766
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:56am Aug 16, 2012 6:56am
Quoting Greenhaze
I am trading both LTF & HTF but there are some important differents between them.

Pros:

-More good "A" opportunities for impatient traders <like me > (Most of the time James16 adepts are taking weak setups becouse of boredom while waiting days/weeks for good prob setups)
That makes two of us!

Good to see you posting again.
  • #2,767
  • Aug 16, 2012 7:22am Aug 16, 2012 7:22am
Quoting Balhana
"A compression into supply trade?" --> Take a look at my thought on your chart. I like "zero compression" as well as "full compression". Because "zero compression" could mean no RBR/DBD on the way. But zero compression is very rare. News spike is sometimes zero compression.

If you understand what QM is, take a look at my EJ trade (or LJ's chart). Does it look like QM? Your user title says that you love Jarroo's method. PBT&CB 95.80 level and then PBT&CA, and then came back to the level (95.80) again, right?

"I only like to trade HTF...

Thank You ... I think I understand a little better now ....

Yes , I love Jarroo method ... Have been trading it for a long time and planing to include supply and demand into it as well so to create a hybrid method of sort ...

Its not something that is forced upon me that I trade higher time frames ... I like dailies ( Partly because of university timings ) because I feel comfortable in it and am used to it as I have been on it for more then one and a half year ... It is my style of trading ...

Regards
Human
  • #2,768
  • Aug 16, 2012 7:25am Aug 16, 2012 7:25am
Quote
I am trading both LTF & HTF but there are some important differents between them.

LTF

Cons:

-less capital needed in order to move/manipulate the price (more whipsaws and fake BOs = simple function of lower liquidity)
-larger spread/profit ratio (10 pip profit on pair with 3 pips spread equals -30% compared to 3% on 100 pips HTF profit. Its a huge difference which might kill even best trading method in longer term)
-One need to make very fast decisions. With lack of experience and chart time its very dangerous for new players.
-Large...

I think the point Balhana was getting across is that there is no difference in price mechanics on a D1 compared to an M5 for example - price moves in the way for the same reasons with the same predictability. But conventional wisdom is that LTF's are 'noise' and people should be wary of them etc etc.

There is of course practical differences between trading TF's and part of that is down to personality and circumstances too as well as the points you mentioned above.

For me, H1 represents a good medium between a) frequency of setups and b) profit to average spread ratio.

D1 for example - although spread is a lower cost as a % of profit it takes much longer to make that profit and trade frequency is of course much lower. The drop off is very material IMO and that's why D1 for me (being able to trade full time) represents an inefficient way to part with capital relative to H1.

The factors I consider most important when trading LTF's are:

a) margin requirements - this morning I was planning a UCAD and an EG trade - pip movements are low on these pairs so margin requirement on a broker like Oanda (50:1) for a 15 pip SL can be rather large - a lot larger than the theoretical risk on the trade.

b) sudden volatility / news events - you are more prone to sudden volatility / whipsaws trading LTF's whcich can materially affect your trade relative to what it would do to a D1 TF trade. Awareness and planning is essential to manage this.

c) Spread as a function of potential profit. This doesn't affect too many trades unless your trading sub H1 on exotics. But is it something you have to bear in mind. But for me this is easily compensated by the fact I can find tons more tradable setups on H1 and sub H1 in some cases than I can on D1. Of course you have to find brokers with good spreads - it becomes more important

d) Speed of analysis and execution - you rightly pointed out this is much tougher on LTF's, it's something that experience, practice and proper planning can overcome. Most of my setups are planned well in advance, either the actual setups or the supply / demand areas I want to be watching.
  • #2,769
  • Aug 16, 2012 7:28am Aug 16, 2012 7:28am
Quoting 5.25
I'm in this too only my analysis was more on the higher TF. The 80BRN is proving to be quite the barrier.

I'm also short on a 1h FB EURSEK, straight into an area of supply. It's a very sluggish pair though, not one I've traded before. Tempted to scratch it as momentum is slow.
You got a chart of what you're looking at on EURSEK as I can't see an FB there?
  • #2,770
  • Edited 7:49am Aug 16, 2012 7:32am | Edited 7:49am
Quoting 5.25
That makes two of us!

Good to see you posting again.
Hey T!

Good to see you too

Interesting setups on AU today. I consider opening futures account for LTF transactions at some point. There is not much point in trading anything below M15 with such high transaction costs. I would be glad to hear any advice from somebody using a futures broker.
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  • #2,771
  • Aug 16, 2012 7:49am Aug 16, 2012 7:49am
Quoting lovejoy80
I think the point Balhana was getting across is that there is no difference in price mechanics on a D1 compared to an M5 for example - price moves in the way for the same reasons with the same predictability. But conventional wisdom is that LTF's are 'noise' and people should be wary of them etc etc.

There is of course practical differences between trading TF's and part of that is down to personality and circumstances too as well as the points you mentioned above.

For me, H1 represents a good medium between a) frequency of setups and b) profit...
I agree about the TF mechanics and don't think there is much difference between them. Market participants change but laws of S/D and order-flow works in the same way.

  • #2,772
  • Aug 16, 2012 7:53am Aug 16, 2012 7:53am
Quoting Greenhaze
Hey T!

Good to see you too

Interesting setups on AU today. I consider opening futures account for LTF transactions at some point. There is not much point in trading anything below M15 with such high transaction costs. I wonder if anybody can recommend a good futures broker?
Nice trade.

How did you work out your futures transaction costs versus spot?

There are downsides to trading with futures in terms of minimum capital requirements, lot sizing and margin - though these have probably loosened somewhat over recent times.
  • #2,773
  • Aug 16, 2012 7:53am Aug 16, 2012 7:53am
Quoting Balhana
Sold CAD/JPY at 80.10
Added one more short at 80.15
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  • #2,774
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:00am Aug 16, 2012 8:00am
Quoting Balhana
Added one more short at 80.15

Trap Trade ??
Human
  • #2,775
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:11am Aug 16, 2012 8:11am
Quoting Chanya
Trap Trade ??
"Daily supply + BRN + Bull Trap" Looks like 5M demand at 80 is the first hurdle.
  • #2,776
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:12am Aug 16, 2012 8:12am
Quoting lovejoy80
Nice trade.

How did you work out your futures transaction costs versus spot?

There are downsides to trading with futures in terms of minimum capital requirements, lot sizing and margin - though these have probably loosened somewhat over recent times.

http://www.ampfutures.com/margins_req.html
http://www.ampfutures.com/contract_specs.html

They allow >500$ deposits. DayTrade Margins are not that high and there are mini/micro contracts available for currency trading.
I've sent you an e-mail with detailed cost sheet.
  • #2,777
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:25am Aug 16, 2012 8:25am
Quoting Greenhaze
http://www.ampfutures.com/margins_req.html
http://www.ampfutures.com/contract_specs.html

They allow >500$ deposits. DayTrade Margins are not that high and there are mini/micro contracts available for currency trading.
I've sent you an e-mail with detailed cost sheet.
Thanks, received, will check it out later.

One of the reasons I use spot is because I have to copy trades across various accounts and thus need to use MT4 for this (and I also use other trade management software specific to MT4), but there are futures brokers who offer MT4 too I've noticed.
  • #2,778
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:44am Aug 16, 2012 8:44am
Quoting lovejoy80
You got a chart of what you're looking at on EURSEK as I can't see an FB there?
Apologies for the quality of the chart. The day job brings such limitations.

In line with the earlier conversation regarding HTF vs LTF trading, I paid a high spread percentage to trade this. When the assumed FB failed to gain momentum, I reduced my risk and came out with a small profit.

Obvious buying pressure played it's part here. Not a good trade, but glad to come out with a positive outcome.
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  • #2,779
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:53am Aug 16, 2012 8:53am
Took a short on GBP/CHF at 1.5315. Sold it right into demand?
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  • #2,780
  • Aug 16, 2012 9:33am Aug 16, 2012 9:33am
Quoting Balhana
Added one more short at 80.15
Closed the higher entry at 80.00 for +15 pips just for peace of mind.
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