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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #47,921
  • Aug 16, 2012 3:31am Aug 16, 2012 3:31am
Good morning,

Quoting PipTrapper
Trade safe today and remember that the best entries in this business are those that follow the major trend. More specifically, in a down trend, sell the rallies and in an up trend, buy the dips. Don't try to be a hero. It's not worth it.
why did you buy USDCAD then? Don't see any major trend to upside there.

Have a nice day. Greetings
  • #47,922
  • Aug 16, 2012 3:41am Aug 16, 2012 3:41am
Quoting iak_fx
Good morning,


why did you buy USDCAD then? Don't see any major trend to upside there.

Have a nice day. Greetings
I believe I explained the rationale behind the trade when I first entered it and a few times afterwards. A simple search for the phrase "Stephen Harper is a faggot" will get you the answer

ADD: Here you go.

Quoting PipTrapper
For those of you who are long the U/CAD like me (or thinking about it), the Canadian CPI figure just came out at -0.4% Way below expectations of -0.1

WooHoo. Up up and away


Reprint from a previous post...

I'm still bullish medium to long term on U/CAD

The BOC today stated that they don't expect to raise rates until 2014. That's too far off into the future to be concerned about right now.

Also...
1. Toronto has a housing bubble which is about to burst = CAD negative
2. A strong CAD is hurting the Canadian manufacturing sector = CAD negative
3. A slowdown in the global economy will drive commodity prices lower = CAD negative.
4. The US Fed will not do any more QE until 2013 = USD positive
5. The Eurozone crisis is sending capital running for cover = USD positive
6. Did I mention Stephen Harper is a faggot? (No offence to faggots) = CAD & USD neutral

Parity is a psychological barrier now and will most likely not even be tested, let alone breached.

What cannot go down, must go up.

Obviously things have changed since then. CAD is now being seen as a safe haven, but on the next major risk off swing, this should all be reversed.

I cannot and will not always be correct in my analysis. If I were, I would have quit this business and retired on a private island long ago
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #47,923
  • Aug 16, 2012 3:59am Aug 16, 2012 3:59am
still hanging =S
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  • #47,924
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:05am Aug 16, 2012 4:05am
PT,

I know this is the EurAnalysis thread but I hope you don't mind me posting some important Support & Resistance on the USDCAD weekly chart.


Support: As you can I have drawn two support lines and two resistance lines. For the near term support I see the .9800 level being a very important support area. In fact, this is where I will be going long, and we should be there by the end of next week.

Next major support is down towards the .9400 area. I personally don't see it going this far down but we never know.

Resistance: First major resistance sits up at the 1.05 level. After that I see the 1.066 level being solid resistance.

My Plan: Buy Limit at .9820 with stop loss at .9700, take partial profit at 1.02. Let the rest ride to 1.04. This should provide a Risk/Reward ratio of roughly 1:5.

**Due to the fact that the outer support & resistance lines haven't been touched in 2012 I don't see them as being as significant as the "inner" support/resistance lines I have pointed out.
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  • #47,925
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:07am Aug 16, 2012 4:07am
Quoting 100PipsADay
PT,

I know this is the EurAnalysis thread but I hope you don't mind me posting some important Support & Resistance on the USDCAD weekly chart.


Support: As you can I have drawn two support lines and two resistance lines. For the near term support I see the .9800 level being a very important support area. In fact, this is where I will be going long, and we should be there by the end of next week.

Next major support is down towards the .9400 area. I personally don't see it going this far down but we never know.

Resistance:...
No I don't mind the occasional U/CAD analysis being posted here. I will only mind if it takes away from the focus of the thread.. which is E/U
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #47,926
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:07am Aug 16, 2012 4:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
I cannot and will not always be correct in my analysis. If I were, I would have quit this business and retired on a private island long ago
Of course not. Just did not read the quoted post before and trading that pair myself i was just curious about your reasoning.
Thanks for your answer and may you retire on that island anytime
  • #47,927
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:12am Aug 16, 2012 4:12am
Quoting PipTrapper
No I don't mind the occasional U/CAD analysis being posted here. I will only mind if it takes away from the focus of the thread.. which is E/U
Got it!
  • #47,928
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:17am Aug 16, 2012 4:17am
Quoting iak_fx
Of course not. Just did not read the quoted post before and trading that pair myself i was just curious about your reasoning.
Thanks for your answer and may you retire on that island anytime
I've already chosen it. Now I just need the money

http://a.abcnews.com//images/Busines..._070606_mn.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #47,929
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:18am Aug 16, 2012 4:18am
Quoting PipTrapper
I've already chosen it. Now I just need the money

http://a.abcnews.com//images/Busines..._070606_mn.jpg
I already put up the down payment, it should say "In Escrow"

Sorry PT...
  • #47,930
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:21am Aug 16, 2012 4:21am
Quoting 100PipsADay
I already put up the down payment, it should say "In Escrow"

Sorry PT...
Damn you
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #47,931
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:24am Aug 16, 2012 4:24am
here we go
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  • #47,932
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:25am Aug 16, 2012 4:25am
Well it's time for me to fly off. Sun and fresh air await me. Will be back for NY.
Please hammer this sucker down while I am gone. It would be much appreciated.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #47,933
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:32am Aug 16, 2012 4:32am
Quoting PipTrapper
Damn you
LOL


If you get a chance to address this before you go, great! If not, no worries.

I was looking at a monthly chart of the EUR/USD and it looks like we are currently sitting in between two MAJOR support lines which have played important roles during 2008, 2009, 2010, and earlier in 2012.

Do you think this is why it is so hard to break? If so, do we need some other BIG fundamental news to come out of the Eurozone to break through or is the current situation enough to break support, but just needs more time? Hope this makes sense.

By the way, the support lines I see are roughly 1.235 and 1.22.
  • #47,934
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:33am Aug 16, 2012 4:33am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well it's time for me to fly off. Sun and fresh air await me. Will be back for NY.
Please hammer this sucker down while I am gone. It would be much appreciated.
Sorry but some of us used wrong instruments on the job this morning
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  • #47,935
  • Aug 16, 2012 5:34am Aug 16, 2012 5:34am
Quoting 100PipsADay
LOL


If you get a chance to address this before you go, great! If not, no worries.

I was looking at a monthly chart of the EUR/USD and it looks like we are currently sitting in between two MAJOR support lines which have played important roles during 2008, 2009, 2010, and earlier in 2012.

Do you think this is why it is so hard to break? If so, do we need some other BIG fundamental news to come out of the Eurozone to break through or is the current situation enough to break support, but just needs more time? Hope this makes sense.

By...
I have already gone, but thanks to my fantastic tablet, I can still respond.
My view is still quite bearish and the Continuation downwards is only a matter of 'when' rather than 'if'
Perhaps once volumes return to normal, things will start moving again.
Of course more bad news will just bring it on much quicker.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #47,936
  • Aug 16, 2012 5:35am Aug 16, 2012 5:35am
Quoting Likerty
Sorry but some of us used wrong instruments on the job this morning

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #47,937
  • Aug 16, 2012 5:36am Aug 16, 2012 5:36am
Bullish divergence H1
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  • #47,938
  • Aug 16, 2012 5:45am Aug 16, 2012 5:45am
Good morning folks,

Looks like we are going to have a rather dull day Maybe I should follow PT's lead and head to the beach...
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I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #47,939
  • Aug 16, 2012 5:46am Aug 16, 2012 5:46am
Hello Gofer Pips.

No needed, but thanks anyway for your kindness and the voucher.

All the best.
Just for today ...
  • #47,940
  • Aug 16, 2012 5:58am Aug 16, 2012 5:58am
Quoting Likerty
Bullish divergence H1
Yes I see it too...but with the lack of volume...she's nothing short of a "short term' bull trap...
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
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