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USD/CAD

  • #3,161
  • Aug 15, 2012 5:39pm Aug 15, 2012 5:39pm
Quoting Zappa
We gotta be at the bottom of the bottom here. It has a very slight chance of tagging 60, but I doubt it.

The problem with the long position is there currently is not many fundamentals to back it up except for a risk off meltdown.

CAD seems to be performing well for two reasons. #1 A bit of risk-on trading back into energy and materials #2 Canada is growing a reputation as a safe haven for slow steady growth.

Unless there is a massive move of cash into US housing or manufacturing... the investment cash is going where there is growth with almost no surprises (Canada/Germany... too bad germany has that darn euro). The pair is definitely low, but oversold to me means it's moving down irrationally, and so far the fundamentals make sense for this pair to move lower.


PS. If you take a look at AUD/CAD... the past two/three weeks suggest the movement is more related to #2 rather than #1
  • #3,162
  • Aug 15, 2012 5:55pm Aug 15, 2012 5:55pm
Quoting Rknigh2
The problem with the long position is there currently is not many fundamentals to back it up except for a risk off meltdown.

CAD seems to be performing well for two reasons. #1 A bit of risk-on trading back into energy and materials #2 Canada is growing a reputation as a safe haven for slow steady growth.

Unless there is a massive move of cash into US housing or manufacturing... the investment cash is going where there is growth with almost no surprises (Canada/Germany... too bad germany has that darn euro). The pair is definitely low, but oversold...
Yea real estate here is pretty stubborn never goes down... but with China bubble happening it might. Its still a safe bet for atleast 6 months
  • #3,163
  • Aug 15, 2012 6:53pm Aug 15, 2012 6:53pm
I just wanna share an article with you guys that I found online (published a few days ago).

3 -reasons-why-usd/cad could bounce up

Not sure if it's still valid though.
  • #3,164
  • Aug 15, 2012 7:23pm Aug 15, 2012 7:23pm
Quoting sasakiac
Good performance I should say and I'm thinking we might have a similar strategy. I personally believe that usd/cad is good for long term trade since its very slow ( or stable ). I think of 1.00 as a pivot point. Prices will usually return to this level regardless long or short. My strategy is a little bit weird. I enter short when it's 100 pips above or long when it's 100 pips below. And add pending orders for every 100 pip distance. I used to put stop loss but I ended up breaking even.... and the price normally went back in less than a week....
So you are going to add at every 100 pips away from 1.00 until it returns?
What if it goes to 1.60 again?
  • #3,165
  • Aug 15, 2012 7:38pm Aug 15, 2012 7:38pm
Quoting Rknigh2
The problem with the long position is there currently is not many fundamentals to back it up except for a risk off meltdown.

CAD seems to be performing well for two reasons. #1 A bit of risk-on trading back into energy and materials #2 Canada is growing a reputation as a safe haven for slow steady growth.

Unless there is a massive move of cash into US housing or manufacturing... the investment cash is going where there is growth with almost no surprises (Canada/Germany... too bad germany has that darn euro). The pair is definitely low, but oversold...
There's always two sides to a fundamental argument, which is why I don't pay much attention to it. AudCad looks ready to reverse as well. Well, either way, I'm almost at the point with this pair where I'll throw in the towel and focus on something else. I've learned a lot in the last few weeks. Losing always makes you stronger if you really try to understand where you went wrong. My other trades are going good, so I don't focus so much on them. Losing forces you to focus.

Just to be clear though, I'm still long this pair with a stop at 98.30.
  • #3,166
  • Aug 15, 2012 7:40pm Aug 15, 2012 7:40pm
Quoting Zappa
There's always two sides to a fundamental argument, which is why I don't pay much attention to it. AudCad looks ready to reverse as well. Well, either way, I'm almost at the point with this pair where I'll throw in the towel and focus on something else. I've learned a lot in the last few weeks. Losing always makes you stronger if you really try to understand where you went wrong. My other trades are going good, so I don't focus so much on them. Losing forces you to focus.

Just to be clear though, I'm still long this pair with a stop at 98.30.
whats your take on aud/usd?
  • #3,167
  • Aug 15, 2012 7:44pm Aug 15, 2012 7:44pm
Quoting fasy007
whats your take on aud/usd?

I'm bullish this pair. I don't think it's gonna fly, but I got it going up and I got USDCAD and USDJPY going up too, so AUDCAD and AUDJPY should REALLY kick ass. I think CADJPY is going to go up but it might be choppy/slow.

I was calling for a buy last night in the AUDUSD thread just out of boredom. I think my call was at 1.0469. I didn't take it though.
  • #3,168
  • Aug 15, 2012 7:57pm Aug 15, 2012 7:57pm
Meanwhile, EURUSD looks ready to drop another 1000 pips to 1.1400, so EURAUD must be ready to really drop even further. What a ride that pair has had---I missed the whole thing. I remember back in March of '09 I was looking at this pair and saw a lot of potential for a big drop. I entered at the vertical line in the chart and put my stop at the shaded circle. I got stopped and gave up on the trade. It obviously sucks to see how close I was back then to a really great trade, but I'm satisfied knowing that if I looking at that set-up today, I would have done things a little differently and I would not have been stopped.
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  • #3,169
  • Aug 15, 2012 8:03pm Aug 15, 2012 8:03pm
Quoting Zappa
Meanwhile, EURUSD looks ready to drop another 1000 pips to 1.1400, so EURAUD must be ready to really drop even further. What a ride that pair has had---I missed the whole thing. I remember back in March of '09 I was looking at this pair and saw a lot of potential for a big drop. I entered at the vertical line in the chart and put my stop at the shaded circle. I got stopped and gave up on the trade. It obviously sucks to see how close I was back then to a really great trade, but I'm satisfied knowing that if I looking at that set-up today, I would...
wish we all knew, lol. thanks for ur input
  • #3,170
  • Aug 15, 2012 8:10pm Aug 15, 2012 8:10pm
I think the bottom is here somewhere +/- 50 pips. It looks like based on my charts the macro outlook will favor the US dollar (risk off)

2 reasons:

1. The reason is $djusol. If you open the chart for the last 2 years, you will see that oil stocks are going to hit the wall soon if not already. Oil doesn't have too much upside from here.

2. SPX chart also hits the wall at 1420.
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  • #3,171
  • Aug 15, 2012 8:17pm Aug 15, 2012 8:17pm
I am definitely not dismissing the chance of market unravelling (use/cad rising). However there are some flaws fundamentally in the reasoning the CAD should depreciate vs the USD if the market continues to rally or move sideways. Of course if you ignore the fundamentals, I can understand why technically irrational moves are frustrating.

Energy only makes up 8% of cdn GDP and energy equities are severely depressed still with lots of room up. CAD is moving on more than just energy.
  • #3,172
  • Aug 15, 2012 9:20pm Aug 15, 2012 9:20pm
Sell SELL SELL SELLLOL
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #3,173
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:07am Aug 16, 2012 6:07am
They sure seem pretty content on their positions
pretty good additions added

http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bullet...es_2012158.pdf
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #3,174
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:12am Aug 16, 2012 6:12am
Hi guys...get ready for USD/CAD breakout with in an hour in downward direction....i am waiting for this breakout....

I missed yesterday but not today....

Happy pippin...
I am a hunter...i kill both bulls and bears...
  • #3,175
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:48am Aug 16, 2012 6:48am
Quoting oathbreaker
Hi guys...get ready for USD/CAD breakout with in an hour in downward direction....i am waiting for this breakout....

I missed yesterday but not today....

Happy pippin...
...
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  • #3,176
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:55am Aug 16, 2012 6:55am
Hi Zappa...

Nice one....

I short already with s/l of 10 pips....i don't know we will see....that was what happening for last two weeks....either breakout or range but no reversal....
I am a hunter...i kill both bulls and bears...
  • #3,177
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:58am Aug 16, 2012 6:58am
Buy long, be patient, and leave the computer.
  • #3,178
  • Aug 16, 2012 7:23am Aug 16, 2012 7:23am
According to Oanda open orders, there is a MAJOR increase of new open BUY orders in whole range from 0,9810-0,9880 in the last 2 hours.

Haven't seen such increase in such a short time for quite a while. Major move ahead?
  • #3,179
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:13am Aug 16, 2012 8:13am
Quoting Spik
According to Oanda open orders, there is a MAJOR increase of new open BUY orders in whole range from 0,9810-0,9880 in the last 2 hours.

Haven't seen such increase in such a short time for quite a while. Major move ahead?
That's an intersting little side note. You've been watching this for some time?
  • #3,180
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:21am Aug 16, 2012 8:21am
Quoting Spik
According to Oanda open orders, there is a MAJOR increase of new open BUY orders in whole range from 0,9810-0,9880 in the last 2 hours.

Haven't seen such increase in such a short time for quite a while. Major move ahead?
Glad to hear that and nice to see negative economy data from Canada !! I believe it's going to be a long bull if price doesn't close down below 0.987 by the end of week. Perhaps I shall drink more red bull!!!
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