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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #47,541
  • Aug 13, 2012 9:28am Aug 13, 2012 9:28am
THX guys. Hope ya'll had a great day too.
  • #47,542
  • Aug 13, 2012 9:44am Aug 13, 2012 9:44am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
THX guys. Hope ya'll had a great day too.
Hey Swiss! Congratulations on another successful day my friend.

I also got long on the EUR/AUD and short on the AUD/JPY. Always nice to wake up to green pips.
  • #47,543
  • Aug 13, 2012 9:46am Aug 13, 2012 9:46am
Quoting neuron
I added a small u/cad long (.9931) on the peak of the current hourly candle for oil (92.5)
made a new high, hit the 38.2% retracement from recent drop, wonder if it'll go back down now, wouldn't be surprised if we hit 50% first

still holding...

inexperienced with trading oil so do chime in if i'm missing something
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  • #47,544
  • Aug 13, 2012 9:50am Aug 13, 2012 9:50am
Quoting neuron
made a new high, hit the 38.2% retracement from recent drop, wonder if it'll go back down now, wouldn't be surprised if we hit 50% first

still holding...

inexperienced with trading oil so do chime in if i'm missing something
It's not easy to anticipate the direction of oil. It's heading to 50% I guess
  • #47,545
  • Aug 13, 2012 9:56am Aug 13, 2012 9:56am
Quoting mka_78
It's not easy to anticipate the direction of oil. It's heading to 50% I guess
You're right, Oil is difficult to trade, especially on the lower time frames.

I trade it on the D1 chart and ONLY when it is trending. When ranging, I stay away!
  • #47,546
  • Aug 13, 2012 9:56am Aug 13, 2012 9:56am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hey Swiss! Congratulations on another successful day my friend.

I also got long on the EUR/AUD and short on the AUD/JPY. Always nice to wake up to green pips.
Hey pippy. Hope you had a great vacation bro. Post a scenic picture of where you were when you can. I love the pacific Northwest.
  • #47,547
  • Aug 13, 2012 9:57am Aug 13, 2012 9:57am
Quoting 100PipsADay
You're right, Oil is difficult to trade, especially on the lower time frames.

I trade it on the D1 chart and ONLY when it is trending. When ranging, I stay away!
lol good call, just blasted through 50% and 61.8%

luckily u/cad hasn't reacted strongly (yet?)

lesson learned


still seeing some major indecision candlesticks on the daily crude so i'll hold on to u/cad longs
  • #47,548
  • Aug 13, 2012 10:01am Aug 13, 2012 10:01am
IMO the best way to trade crude is through the use of supply and demand and not your average technical analysis on the lower TF's. Of course geo politics sets the trend. Just a thought.
  • #47,549
  • Aug 13, 2012 10:07am Aug 13, 2012 10:07am
Banks, Companies and Investors prepare for Euro collapse............

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-849747.html
  • #47,550
  • Aug 13, 2012 10:10am Aug 13, 2012 10:10am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
IMO the best way to trade crude is through the use of supply and demand and not your average technical analysis on the lower TF's. Of course geo politics sets the trend. Just a thought.
thanks for the heads up, oil and U/CAD are on my list of things "to learn"
  • #47,551
  • Aug 13, 2012 10:14am Aug 13, 2012 10:14am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Hey pippy. Hope you had a great vacation bro. Post a scenic picture of where you were when you can. I love the pacific Northwest.
Oh yea! Had a blast! Most of my family (from both parents' sides) is originally from Washington, Oregon, and California so it was nice to see some of them again.
  • #47,552
  • Aug 13, 2012 10:16am Aug 13, 2012 10:16am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
IMO the best way to trade crude is through the use of supply and demand and not your average technical analysis on the lower TF's. Of course geo politics sets the trend. Just a thought.
Swiss,

Would you mind explaining a little more about what you mean with the supply and demand? What would be the best way (and where) to find the information necessary to correctly analyze the numbers?
  • #47,553
  • Aug 13, 2012 10:24am Aug 13, 2012 10:24am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Swiss,

Would you mind explaining a little more about what you mean with the supply and demand? What would be the best way (and where) to find the information necessary to correctly analyze the numbers?
http://www.fxstreet.com/education/re...es/2011/04/05/
  • #47,554
  • Aug 13, 2012 10:35am Aug 13, 2012 10:35am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
http://www.fxstreet.com/education/re...es/2011/04/05/
Right on, thanks Swiss.
  • #47,555
  • Edited 11:03am Aug 13, 2012 10:45am | Edited 11:03am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Right on, thanks Swiss.
Example on how you could've used Supply/Demand is on your Eur/Aud trade today. If you were an intraday trader, you would've gotten out near the top of today's high at 1.1755, as it was in a S/D area. If you're a trend trader, you cash out at S/D and wait for a retrace and confirmation to re-enter at a better price thus maximizing your pip gain. This alone helps me to maximize my pip count without giving back any to the broker. Just a tip. At least this is how I trade. I could just be doing it all wrong, but highly unlikely.
  • #47,556
  • Aug 13, 2012 11:37am Aug 13, 2012 11:37am
yet another boring range?

E/U H1:
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  • #47,557
  • Aug 13, 2012 12:15pm Aug 13, 2012 12:15pm
Quoting Thijs
I think at this point, it's good to point out Germany is very happy with a weaker EURUSD. I've suspected they've been stringing out the crisis as long as possible to keep a lid on the EURUSD.

Germany has a very large export sector, and a weaker EURUSD helps the German economy tremendously. In fact, it's hard for me to see comments from German finance ministers as anything but attempts to talk the euro lower by threatening a crisis they know they can prevent at any time.

Am I giving them too much credit now ?
No I think you've pretty much hit the nail right on the head, but it is a bit more complex than that. You must also factor in the verbal diarrhea necessary to keep the voting public's faith in the government. More specifically the faith that the German governing coalition will protect Germany against potential liability if it had to actually cough up the billions in EFSF/ESM funds it has already pledged... but only paid with empty promises. If the Euro project fails, don't think for a minute that Germany will actually deliver the cash.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #47,558
  • Aug 13, 2012 12:17pm Aug 13, 2012 12:17pm
Quoting FXSwissTrader
200+ pips between E/U, E/A and A/U scalps today. Hope everyone did well today.
Excellent hunting bro.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #47,559
  • Aug 13, 2012 1:29pm Aug 13, 2012 1:29pm
Mr. Piptrapper

Which event has put the last 1.18xxx floor ?
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #47,560
  • Aug 13, 2012 1:59pm Aug 13, 2012 1:59pm
Quoting FXSwissTrader
200+ pips between E/U, E/A and A/U scalps today. Hope everyone did well today.
Nice catch
If i ever didi that as intraday day trade, i would be very very happy.
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