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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #47,501
  • Aug 13, 2012 7:57am Aug 13, 2012 7:57am
Quoting medici
And now it's in the media: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ince-2009.html

just confirms that they too watch FF and saw your post.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #47,502
  • Aug 13, 2012 7:57am Aug 13, 2012 7:57am
Quoting CurrencyMan
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_1.png
EURUSD: More sideways price action in the EURUSD as the 20-DMA provided support today; though the rally off of the July 24 low appears to be corrective in nature, with three waves evident from the bottom (A-B-C correction). This suggests that further downside is likely; in our opinion, this translates to one more new low near the 2010 low of 1.1875 before...
Good observation man . keep it up ' i do expect it to go down from this up move to make a further new low down . But will it be from 1.24 or with around 1.2450 to 1.25 to clear some shorts and to trap some new retailers ( market psychology) . this we have to leave it for time to decide
finding A M S
  • #47,503
  • Aug 13, 2012 8:01am Aug 13, 2012 8:01am
Quoting CurrencyMan
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_1.png
EURUSD: More sideways price action in the EURUSD as the 20-DMA provided support today; though the rally off of the July 24 low appears to be corrective in nature, with three waves evident from the bottom (A-B-C correction). This suggests that further downside is likely; in our opinion, this translates to one more new low near the 2010 low of 1.1875 before...
  • #47,504
  • Aug 13, 2012 8:05am Aug 13, 2012 8:05am
Second hit on todays R1 of 2357 with a lower high on the 5 min TVI has got me searching for my Bermudas.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #47,505
  • Aug 13, 2012 8:08am Aug 13, 2012 8:08am
Quoting Islander
Second hit on todays R1 of 2357 with a lower high on the 5 min TVI has got me searching for my Bermudas.....
U mean R2 right? Typo?
  • #47,506
  • Aug 13, 2012 8:13am Aug 13, 2012 8:13am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
I'm sure she would love to practice many things on you.
hehehe I'm sure.

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #47,507
  • Aug 13, 2012 8:15am Aug 13, 2012 8:15am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
U mean R2 right? Typo?
whoops - yes - I was busy getting my Bermudas on
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #47,508
  • Aug 13, 2012 8:19am Aug 13, 2012 8:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
hehehe I'm sure.

Attachment
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #47,509
  • Edited 8:23am Aug 13, 2012 8:21am | Edited 8:23am
What the hell is going on?!?! My U/C long is green! Maybe I should take profits now.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #47,510
  • Aug 13, 2012 8:24am Aug 13, 2012 8:24am
Quoting Cgb
What the hell is going on?!?! My U/C long is green! Maybe I should take profits now.
I'm done with U/C for awhile. I think it will touch .98 before any real rally IMO.
  • #47,511
  • Aug 13, 2012 8:26am Aug 13, 2012 8:26am
Quoting CurrencyMan
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK


EURUSD: More sideways price action in the EURUSD as the 20-DMA provided support today; though the rally off of the July 24 low appears to be corrective in nature, with three waves evident from the bottom (A-B-C correction). This suggests that further downside is likely; in our opinion, this translates to one more new low near the 2010 low of 1.1875 before the start of the next major bull leg. A drop towards 1.1695-1.1875 remains likely by mid-September. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.2310/30, 1.2400/05,...
I beg to differ. Taking a look at the weekly (below) and counting the waves, it seems that a short-covering rally going on for weeks is not an impossibility.

Just to raise my credibility as a bottom-picker a bit, here's a post I made in the summer of 2010, picking that bottom: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...97#post3779297

DISCLAIMER: To me this kind of market analysis is solely a pastime. My trading is based on what is happening NOW, and for that I need to clear my mind of such delusions as I've just entertained, however amusing they may be.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu weekly 13 aug.jpg Size: 84 KB
  • #47,512
  • Aug 13, 2012 8:30am Aug 13, 2012 8:30am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
I'm done with U/C for awhile. I think it will touch .98 before any real rally IMO.
Hey Swissy... a rhetorical question for you to mull over.

Question: What usually happens after gold and oil drop before the other risk assets?

Answer:
Inserted Video


Of course that is what usually happens. No guarantee this time will be the same result.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #47,513
  • Aug 13, 2012 8:33am Aug 13, 2012 8:33am
Quoting CurrencyMan
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_1.png
EURUSD: More sideways price action in the EURUSD as the 20-DMA provided support today; though the rally off of the July 24 low appears to be corrective in nature, with three waves evident from the bottom (A-B-C correction). This suggests that further downside is likely; in our opinion, this translates to one more new low near the 2010 low of 1.1875 before...
CMan, who was the source of this article?

Knowing who wrote the analysis can shed some light on his reason(s).

Thanks
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #47,514
  • Edited 11:06am Aug 13, 2012 8:33am | Edited 11:06am
Just a comment upon US political situation.
This weekend Romney put it on the line choosing Ryan.
What the ultimate outcome in November and ultimately the fate of the USD is unclear.
But this much is certain Obama cannot hide during the election campaign from the budget deficit.
This move by Romney will bring it front and center in the US domestic scene.
This is a change in politics that Romney's party for better or worse is now fully involved with. The Republican party is now refuting the Big Government of George Bush. They cannot out Democrat, the Democrats, and be everything to everybody, governing from nowhere.
Thus party line is influenced by the Conservative wing.
The National debate will impact the USD since up until now the unmentionable has been off limits to both principle parties.

The simple fact that deficits are going to be discussed is USD positive, as until now the market has believed that it was a forgone conclusion that when all else failed the politics of unlimited spending by Government was an untouchable reality.

I am going to add the following to this post. I believe that Political structure of Government and the perceptions that it brings is as big a driver of Forex expectations as anything else. The market has been trading from policy response to events not from any deep philopshophical commitment to any economic form of outcome.
ie: weak economic data triggers a bull move in commodities because of the implicit application of Central Bank intervention.

Romney by taking the stance he did has now pushed ownership of the US deficit onto Barack Obama. Romney can now campaign as a Reformer who if elected will straigthen out Washington DC which is portrayed as over the top intrusive in the everyday lives of Americans. This is a powerful message and if succesful will change the course of the USD.

Politicaly a very chancy and ballsy move, but it very much changes the dynamics of the office of the President. Romney is now distant from the image of him as merely a better manager running against incompetent leadership. He now says there is someone who if elected will change the National outlook.

This weekend in my opinion has more potential market impact then the filing of another Lawsuit in Germany. The topic of market discussion will shift to incorporate the USD side of the pair which has been ignored for quite some time.
  • #47,515
  • Aug 13, 2012 8:36am Aug 13, 2012 8:36am


Quoting PipTrapper
Hey Swissy... a rhetorical question for you to mull over.

Question: What usually happens after gold and oil drop before the other risk assets?

Answer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TlNOwwQQJk

Of course that is what usually happens. No guarantee this time will be the same result.
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #47,516
  • Aug 13, 2012 8:41am Aug 13, 2012 8:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
Hey Swissy... a rhetorical question for you to mull over.

Question: What usually happens after gold and oil drop before the other risk assets?

Answer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TlNOwwQQJk

Of course that is what usually happens. No guarantee this time will be the same result.
Ok, so what's the answer...
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #47,517
  • Aug 13, 2012 8:46am Aug 13, 2012 8:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
Hey Swissy... a rhetorical question for you to mull over.

Question: What usually happens after gold and oil drop before the other risk assets?

Answer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TlNOwwQQJk

Of course that is what usually happens. No guarantee this time will be the same result.
I know. I know. I'll believe it when I see it though. Can't count the chickens til they hatch.
  • #47,518
  • Aug 13, 2012 9:09am Aug 13, 2012 9:09am
Quoting Islander
whoops - yes - I was busy getting my Bermudas on

and I dropped them PDQ when the MR 2 at 2340 held with +ve divg and went long as the NY guys started buying into the 14:00 GMT hourly close.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #47,519
  • Aug 13, 2012 9:28am Aug 13, 2012 9:28am
Quoting Islander
and I dropped them PDQ when the MR 2 at 2340 held with +ve divg and went long as the NY guys started buying into the 14:00 GMT hourly close.....
Well done, mate It's been such a good session up until lunch that I can't be bothered to chase more pips.

Instead, I'm practicing market analysis and here's a chart with volume divergence analysis of the two recent EURUSD bottoms on the weekly.

I hope I am not upsetting those more bearishly minded
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu weekly div 13 aug.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #47,520
  • Aug 13, 2012 9:33am Aug 13, 2012 9:33am
Quoting Cgb
What the hell is going on?!?! My U/C long is green! Maybe I should take profits now.
im thinking the same thing right now lol


took partial at the 78.6 fib @ 0.99372
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