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USD/CAD

  • #3,101
  • Aug 10, 2012 10:02am Aug 10, 2012 10:02am
Well, I'm sticking with my stop at 9830 if it means anything to anyone.
  • #3,102
  • Aug 10, 2012 10:17am Aug 10, 2012 10:17am
It could be looked at that my entry last night was "too easy" as well, and therefore, in need of a gut check. There was plenty of time for me to enter and no threatening fakes. I should have expected a test there. Another week, another lesson learned.
  • #3,103
  • Aug 10, 2012 10:22am Aug 10, 2012 10:22am
Quoting Zappa
It could be looked at that my entry last night was "too easy" as well, and therefore, in need of a gut check. There was plenty of time for me to enter and no threatening fakes. I should have expected a test there. Another week, another lesson learned.

Its just the motherfucker shit summer screw ya NORM, same crap dif pile 1 year older
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #3,104
  • Aug 10, 2012 10:30am Aug 10, 2012 10:30am
Quoting OrionsWay
Its just the motherfucker shit summer screw ya NORM, same crap dif pile 1 year older
I mean it makes sense, really. There is less liquidity during the summer, so if a large position is to be put on, then there will need to be more fakes and stop running to build the position.
  • #3,105
  • Aug 10, 2012 10:31am Aug 10, 2012 10:31am
Or this thing is headed to 0.8000 and we're just rationalizing its fall the whole way down, lol.
  • #3,106
  • Aug 10, 2012 10:53am Aug 10, 2012 10:53am
It aint ever worth watchin the way these ass hats are playing it(secretly BUYING the manipulation down. WHEN their coffers are FULL we go up not until. IDGAF im only 42 think i can handle their timeline 3 pip BS.

MAYBE USA will be bankrupt by then HAHAA
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #3,107
  • Aug 10, 2012 11:00am Aug 10, 2012 11:00am
Quoting OrionsWay
It aint ever worth watchin the way these ass hats are playing it(secretly BUYING the manipulation down. WHEN their coffers are FULL we go up not until. IDGAF im only 42 think i can handle their timeline 3 pip BS.

MAYBE USA will be bankrupt by then HAHAA
Hahaha...well, I guess we all better learn how to play their game if we ever want to join em' in the "big winner" category.
  • #3,108
  • Aug 10, 2012 11:01am Aug 10, 2012 11:01am
Quoting Zappa
Or this thing is headed to 0.8000 and we're just rationalizing its fall the whole way down, lol.
Lol I hope not, but it won't go straight down anyway so plenty of room to take profits when it retraces. Of all the pairs USDCAD and AUSNZD probably ranges the most. That's why I'm averaging up and don't care if it goes down. =D
  • #3,109
  • Aug 10, 2012 11:16am Aug 10, 2012 11:16am
Quoting Iro
Lol I hope not, but it won't go straight down anyway so plenty of room to take profits when it retraces. Of all the pairs USDCAD and AUSNZD probably ranges the most. That's why I'm averaging up and don't care if it goes down. =D

I don't know man, from Jan. 2002 to Nov. 2007 the USDCAD I don't see much ranging going on. I'd hate to have to wait a couple decades for a profitable trade, lol.
  • #3,110
  • Aug 10, 2012 11:24am Aug 10, 2012 11:24am
Quoting Zappa
Or this thing is headed to 0.8000 and we're just rationalizing its fall the whole way down, lol.
I still believe the probability is higher for USDCAD to go up from here. Similarly, AUDUSD is more likely to go down.
  • #3,111
  • Aug 10, 2012 11:53am Aug 10, 2012 11:53am
Quoting eurgbpaud
I still believe the probability is higher for USDCAD to go up from here. Similarly, AUDUSD is more likely to go down.
AUDUSD actually looks like it'll make new high above 1.0860 to me. AUDCAD is likely to make it above 1.100, but I'm staying out of both pairs.
  • #3,112
  • Aug 10, 2012 12:02pm Aug 10, 2012 12:02pm
Quoting Zappa
I don't know man, from Jan. 2002 to Nov. 2007 the USDCAD I don't see much ranging going on. I'd hate to have to wait a couple decades for a profitable trade, lol.
Really, that's worrying because I've only backtested 2007-2012 lol. OMG!!!
  • #3,113
  • Aug 10, 2012 12:06pm Aug 10, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting Zappa
AUDUSD actually looks like it'll make new high above 1.0860 to me. AUDCAD is likely to make it above 1.100, but I'm staying out of both pairs.
I think usually when AUDUSD goes up USDCAD goes down and vice versa. If I had believed that AUDUSD is more likely to go up I would not have taken a long USDCAD position.

AUDUSD is just below a trendline since early August 2011 and I assume it will stay below that trendline.
  • #3,114
  • Aug 10, 2012 12:07pm Aug 10, 2012 12:07pm
Quoting Iro
Really, that's worrying because I've only backtested 2007-2012 lol. OMG!!!
Hmmm...
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  • #3,115
  • Aug 10, 2012 12:10pm Aug 10, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting eurgbpaud
I still believe the probability is higher for USDCAD to go up from here. Similarly, AUDUSD is more likely to go down.
I'm hoping USDCAD, AUDJPY, CADJPY to go up, EURAUD, EURCAD, GBPAUD, EURJPY, EURUSD, EURNZD to go down. I actually think the euro is gonna go up in the long term but I think its gonna down for the time being.

EDIT: I am @@
  • #3,116
  • Aug 10, 2012 12:17pm Aug 10, 2012 12:17pm
Quoting Iro
I'm hoping USDCAD, AUDJPY, CADJPY to go up, EURAUD, EURCAD, GBPAUD, EURJPY, EURUSD, EURNZD to go down. I actually think the euro is gonna go up in the long term but I think its gonna down for the time being.

EDIT: I am @@

Well, you can't be accused of putting all your eggs in one basket!
  • #3,117
  • Aug 10, 2012 12:30pm Aug 10, 2012 12:30pm
Quoting Zappa
Hmmm...
Ok did a quick check, I have enough margin for 2088 pip drop. So at least it won't blow my account even if it went to .80.

I don't see how this is likely though, the fed has cut interest rates to 0% already and I think going to .80 would require either Canada to raise rates ALOT or Canada raising interest rates while the FED moving to negative interest rates.

The other scenario I can think is that USD gets replaced by China CNY as the global reserve currency, commodities producers shift their trades away from US dollars and the QEs come back to bite the fed in the ass by producing hyperinflation. This is the most likely imo but should be 10 years away at least.
  • #3,118
  • Aug 10, 2012 12:39pm Aug 10, 2012 12:39pm
Quoting Iro
Ok did a quick check, I have enough margin for 2088 pip drop. So at least it won't blow my account even if it went to .80.

I don't see how this is likely though, the fed has cut interest rates to 0% already and I think going to .80 would require either Canada to raise rates ALOT or Canada raising interest rates while the FED moving to negative interest rates.

The other scenario I can think is that USD gets replaced by China CNY as the global reserve currency, commodities producers shift their trades away from US dollars and the QEs come back...
0.8000 was just a random number I used to make a joke (whether that joke turns out to be true remains to be seen).

With that said, I think you'll be fine with this pair/trade.
  • #3,119
  • Edited 12:56pm Aug 10, 2012 12:40pm | Edited 12:56pm
Quoting Zappa
Well, you can't be accused of putting all your eggs in one basket!
Thanks, so far most of them are in the money with eurcad and euraud 150 pips and 100 pips respectively. Hopefully it'll stay that way and keep on trending in my favour.
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  • #3,120
  • Aug 10, 2012 12:59pm Aug 10, 2012 12:59pm
OK...good job, Iro.

I reckon I've had enough of this for a week so I'll catch ya guys next week. If we get a huge gap up on Sunday I would resist the urge to fade it. Many times I've seen a huge gap at a turning point and I've gotten my ass handed to me trying to fade it. 1,000 pips later I start to realize it ain't coming back, dumbass!! Most gaps can be faded although I don't play that game anymore. The big ones, the ones that appear from a low/high, the ones that make you see dollar signs, are the ones to stay the hell away from.

Anyways, that's IF we get a big gap up. If we get a big gap down I won't show my face around here for awhile as I'll be too busy crying in a corner while sucking my thumb. )

Have a good weekend.
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