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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #31,201
  • Jul 30, 2012 6:28pm Jul 30, 2012 6:28pm
I'm also paying attention to us 10 yr yields. If they continue to bounce then Usd/Jpy should benefit and bounce with it. Im long because there is a nice bullish butterfly on the 4hr chart at good structure with a double bottom and some good ratio confluence. Also this is an area the BOJ has been protecting and believe they will continue to do so. Although stopped out of my original entry at BE after banking 30 i have re-entered at 78.16 with stops below 76.14. TP1 is at 79.06, Tp 2 79.45 and T3 at 80.10
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
  • #31,202
  • Jul 30, 2012 7:55pm Jul 30, 2012 7:55pm
It's just possible that UJ is having yet another go at one of its rounding bottom formations. They often fail, or at the very least broaden out much further ... or they're all in the imagination!!

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  • #31,203
  • Edited 8:05am Jul 31, 2012 7:17am | Edited 8:05am
japanese bonds are showing the first signs of weakness by declining the last 7 days from 144.7 to 144.0, but yen refused to weaken at the same time....this divergence has to resolve in some way.. i think it is more likely that bonds will try to retest the highs again ...this could give UJ one more push down or at least hinder it to climb higher in the coming days...but when the retest fails we could see a bigger correction in bonds which should then cause a bigger jump up in UJ
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  • #31,204
  • Jul 31, 2012 1:34pm Jul 31, 2012 1:34pm
Long at 0.7813
TP: 0.7910
  • #31,205
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:33am Aug 1, 2012 11:33am
BOJ has so much dollars! looks like try to peg 78
  • #31,206
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:43am Aug 1, 2012 11:43am
Quoting heraclitus
BOJ has so much dollars! looks like try to peg 78
As long as we are above 75.50 i believe the number was, we shouldn't see an intervention. I believe so, from articles I have read in the past.
  • #31,207
  • Aug 1, 2012 7:11pm Aug 1, 2012 7:11pm
Quoting 4rextrader
As long as we are above 75.50 i believe the number was, we shouldn't see an intervention. I believe so, from articles I have read in the past.
Intervention is already taking place. Not on the same scale as last year when we had that magnificant swing in about 15-60 minutes but it is taking place at these levels. There is different levels of intervention. We have been seeing verbal intervention and also there has been "official types" protecting the 78 level. How long that lasts remains to be seen but make no mistake it is already happening. Usd/Jpy should benefit from an increase in yeilds as well, usd 10yr that is. Halfway to T1 on my long now lets see what happens, patiently
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
  • #31,208
  • Aug 1, 2012 7:43pm Aug 1, 2012 7:43pm
Quoting CNTrader
Intervention is already taking place. Not on the same scale as last year when we had that magnificant swing in about 15-60 minutes but it is taking place at these levels. There is different levels of intervention. We have been seeing verbal intervention and also there has been "official types" protecting the 78 level. How long that lasts remains to be seen but make no mistake it is already happening. Usd/Jpy should benefit from an increase in yeilds as well, usd 10yr that is. Halfway to T1 on my long now lets see what happens, patiently...
hmm interesting I didn't know that. Well as long, as you said the maginicant swing that occurred in the past doesn't happen again, im good. That movement screwed me over. I am alot more cautious....im interested to know where exactly i can find implicity that it is already in fact happening. Im not questioning you, I just would like to know for myself so in the future I can prepare myself if such a big intervetion should occur again.

Thanks CN trader for your insight and sharing of knowledge
  • #31,209
  • Aug 1, 2012 8:43pm Aug 1, 2012 8:43pm
Quoting 4rextrader
hmm interesting I didn't know that. Well as long, as you said the maginicant swing that occurred in the past doesn't happen again, im good. That movement screwed me over. I am alot more cautious....im interested to know where exactly i can find implicity that it is already in fact happening. Im not questioning you, I just would like to know for myself so in the future I can prepare myself if such a big intervetion should occur again.

Thanks CN trader for your insight and sharing of knowledge
It takes time and experience to be prepared for such a large scale intervention as what happened last year. You will never know exactly when it will happen all you can do is recognize the behavior and act accordingly if you are so fortunate to be at your screen when it happens. Most traders are frozen and scared when such an event takes place. This is due to lack of knowledge and experience. As far as the verbal that was used (similar to what Drahgi did last week) read this article and you will uncover one example of it...http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/0...87004D20120801 Really all you have to do is research, read and pay attention. I know not enough time in the day lol but this is what I do for a living so as far as I'm concerned its part of the J-O-B lol. As far as how I have information that "official types" were seen on the bid at 78 well that is through a network of contacts that I have developed over the years in the "Big BOI" banking world. However there are plenty of services that claim to be able to provide the same information for a price. You can probably find one if you google it. Not sure if this helps in any way but I'll leave it at that and continue to focus on trading the charts.
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
  • #31,210
  • Aug 3, 2012 6:14am Aug 3, 2012 6:14am
Quoting torkay77
japanese bonds are showing the first signs of weakness by declining the last 7 days from 144.7 to 144.0, but yen refused to weaken at the same time....this divergence has to resolve in some way.. i think it is more likely that bonds will try to retest the highs again ...this could give UJ one more push down or at least hinder it to climb higher in the coming days...but when the retest fails we could see a bigger correction in bonds which should then cause a bigger jump up in UJ
bonds failed to make a new high
  • #31,211
  • Aug 6, 2012 3:09pm Aug 6, 2012 3:09pm
This pair looking like the main pair to be in. Still bullish USDCAD, but this one looks like it might make the big moves first. USDCAD might make its big move after USDJPY. Gathered this thought by looking at CADJPY, but it is too early to say for sure. Will be clearer later on.

89.00 looks possible in the near future, while 101.00 appears to also be a target with a later date. Should be few interruptions on to 89.00 though.

If USDJPY breaks 77.92, it'll probably break 77.65 too, but that won't change the bullish outlook overall. Just a way to save some pips, get a better position start. Yeah, you take a loss, but you make it up plus the difference. So....stop at 77.92 and look to re-enter below 77.65.
  • #31,212
  • Aug 7, 2012 8:57am Aug 7, 2012 8:57am
78.8 is the resistance... (2nd attempt to break it now)

If it breaks it will fly to 80+
  • #31,213
  • Aug 8, 2012 9:36am Aug 8, 2012 9:36am
76 is coming, more taxes for japanese, cause goverment wants debt to fall
  • #31,214
  • Aug 8, 2012 11:21am Aug 8, 2012 11:21am
Quoting heraclitus
76 is coming, more taxes for japanese, cause goverment wants debt to fall

Not sure how you pay off debt when your currency strengthens, unless it's debt denominated in dollars, pretty sure this isn't the case here. It's typically the opposite, create inflation first then pay off the old debt.
  • #31,215
  • Edited 7:13pm Aug 8, 2012 6:59pm | Edited 7:13pm
Quoting lolygagv2
Not sure how you pay off debt when your currency strengthens, unless it's debt denominated in dollars, pretty sure this isn't the case here. It's typically the opposite, create inflation first then pay off the old debt.
paying debit with new tax.
if it's in local currency it should not be a problem ,
Mohan
  • #31,216
  • Aug 8, 2012 9:23pm Aug 8, 2012 9:23pm
Quoting mohan76
paying debit with new tax.
if it's in local currency it should not be a problem ,

debit? lol
  • #31,217
  • Aug 8, 2012 10:47pm Aug 8, 2012 10:47pm
Ranging a lot will break soon either way hope in this month otherwise sure in september..be ready to pull the trigger..

http://postimage.org/image/icqpqetmt/
GBP/USD
  • #31,218
  • Aug 12, 2012 11:11am Aug 12, 2012 11:11am
some of the big boys went short usd/jpy on friday btw
  • #31,219
  • Aug 12, 2012 11:50am Aug 12, 2012 11:50am
Very nice movements in range 77.92 - 78.80 .. up and down around 10 times .. My strategy is to buy dips and sell highs .. im mainly short at this pair until levels 76.5, if we will touch it i will start with bigger buying, because i think that around 75.50 - 75.80 could BOJ intervene like several times before.
  • #31,220
  • Aug 12, 2012 12:21pm Aug 12, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting Resent
some of the big boys went short usd/jpy on friday btw
How do you figure that?
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