It's got very difficult this week to be clear on direction, we have thin volumes and random statements hitting the news matched in with poor data across the board.....
normally I don't pay much attention to that stuff but.....
look at the EU daily chart 1 - it has made an ABC correction of the swing 1.274x to 1.204x but despite trying hard this week the correction has fallen short of the target zone 1.245x to 1.254x which is unusual
and whilst it appears to be a simple failure to hit target with the things mentioned above it could easily revert straight back up to target zone at any time.
So where am I? - short it the answer for the time being and with more confidence if we can get below 1.23 and less confidence over 1.24
Where are we going? - I don't like to make large predictions into the future I work only with recent data wherever possible...
So if this correction is over I look to the next data set for a heads up.. in this case I look at the next larger swing (chart 2) which was 1.338x to 1.204x and I start to build the correction for that swing and I see that our recent high is a candidate for the first wave A...
therefore I am now looking for a pullback to make wave B that does not breach the low 1.204x before a rise back towards 1.25xx to 1.28xx
but a breach of 1.204x invalidates that and I will be looking lower then...
I hope that is not too confusing..... and it would be nice to get some clearer direction today. not surprisingly cable is in the same situation but has made a move lower today below the hourly TL so that helps with my shorts confidence for now.
normally I don't pay much attention to that stuff but.....
look at the EU daily chart 1 - it has made an ABC correction of the swing 1.274x to 1.204x but despite trying hard this week the correction has fallen short of the target zone 1.245x to 1.254x which is unusual
and whilst it appears to be a simple failure to hit target with the things mentioned above it could easily revert straight back up to target zone at any time.
So where am I? - short it the answer for the time being and with more confidence if we can get below 1.23 and less confidence over 1.24
Where are we going? - I don't like to make large predictions into the future I work only with recent data wherever possible...
So if this correction is over I look to the next data set for a heads up.. in this case I look at the next larger swing (chart 2) which was 1.338x to 1.204x and I start to build the correction for that swing and I see that our recent high is a candidate for the first wave A...
therefore I am now looking for a pullback to make wave B that does not breach the low 1.204x before a rise back towards 1.25xx to 1.28xx
but a breach of 1.204x invalidates that and I will be looking lower then...
I hope that is not too confusing..... and it would be nice to get some clearer direction today. not surprisingly cable is in the same situation but has made a move lower today below the hourly TL so that helps with my shorts confidence for now.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
