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  • #676,841
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:51pm Aug 7, 2012 2:51pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
2402, then 2390/80, then 2340/30

if 2405 breaks i will take a little profit to allow this short to float more comfortably, will take a little more at 2390
that low? i thought u expected it to rebound from 238x
  • #676,842
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:51pm Aug 7, 2012 2:51pm
Did bernanke finish or not yet & did there any opinion for the direction now ?
  • #676,843
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:53pm Aug 7, 2012 2:53pm
Quoting divak
that low? i thought u expected it to rebound from 238x
I do but 2340 is possible as well (and a huge bear move is always possible with E/U, dollar index is still holding its bull channel) so I will just take partial profits

also changed 90/80 to 95 and 75, but anywhere in between there is probably a decent long opportunity (i don't long this pair for 100s of pips though, just scalps)
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #676,844
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:53pm Aug 7, 2012 2:53pm
Quoting gemy
Did bernanke finish or not yet & did there any opinion for the direction now ?
finished 20min ago.
no annoucement or direction as (I) expected.
  • #676,845
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:54pm Aug 7, 2012 2:54pm
Quoting moneymove
H4 chart ... bullish? dont think so
Agreed. My H1 chart looks bearish to me. PA is below MA10; MACD is negative and RSI is below 50
  • #676,846
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:54pm Aug 7, 2012 2:54pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
I do but 2340 is possible as well so I will just take partial profits
i believe 1.238xx is not strong enough, it will rebound but not high, then may test 1.2340 but i dont see it holding either.
Real wall is 1.23
  • #676,847
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:59pm Aug 7, 2012 2:59pm
Quoting divak
i believe 1.238xx is not strong enough, it will rebound but not high, then may test 1.2340 but i dont see it holding either.
Real wall is 1.23
Agreed its probably not strong enough, we'll see in a moment

I took 1/3 profit from 2435, at 2396

I have 1.23934 as daily pivot
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #676,848
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:59pm Aug 7, 2012 2:59pm
Quoting divak
a good start. Simple but clear.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing
thanks. Tell me if im wrong. The general idea of QE is put more money in the market.....so with more dollars in the market then it would be cheaper. And that would affect the pair EUR/Usd pushing it higher. Is that correct?
  • #676,849
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:04pm Aug 7, 2012 3:04pm
Quoting lafedgar
thanks. Tell me if im wrong. The general idea of QE is put more money in the market.....so with more dollars in the market then it would be cheaper. And that would affect the pair EUR/Usd pushing it higher. Is that correct?
Yes thats correct
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #676,850
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:05pm Aug 7, 2012 3:05pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Agreed its probably not strong enough, we'll see in a moment

I took 1/3 profit from 2435, at 2396

I have 1.23934 as daily pivot
My chart shows pivot at 1.2394 as well. On M5 chart, PA is struggling to penetrate decisively through the pivot line. However, if it can take out 1.2390, I believe it could go south to 1.234x
  • #676,851
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:08pm Aug 7, 2012 3:08pm
Quoting Vectamart
My chart shows pivot at 1.2394 as well. On M5 chart, PA is struggling to penetrate decisively through the pivot line. However, if it can take out 1.2390, I believe it could go south to 1.234x
oversold on 5m into daily pivot, morning star on 5m,

watching 2405 and 09 and 13
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #676,852
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:08pm Aug 7, 2012 3:08pm
Quoting lafedgar
thanks. Tell me if im wrong. The general idea of QE is put more money in the market.....so with more dollars in the market then it would be cheaper. And that would affect the pair EUR/Usd pushing it higher. Is that correct?
its correct, though QE3 is about buying bonds on secondary markets. So the money influx is valid till the bonds are sold back later on by the Central Bank.

So its different from direct buying of bonds from the governments directly. Which means holding till maturity. The money influx is more permanent, as opposed to the first one that is meant to free some cash temporarily
  • #676,853
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:11pm Aug 7, 2012 3:11pm
Still holding my shorts and from what i seen the 950 is not as strong as it used to be , maybe 750 might be the wall waiting - its almost 75 points from the previous high ...

it make really wonder , where is the bloody bottom
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #676,854
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:12pm Aug 7, 2012 3:12pm
Quoting Vachus
Still holding my shorts and from what i seen the 950 is not as strong as it used to be , maybe 750 might be the wall waiting - its almost 75 points from the previous high ...

it make really wonder , where is the bloody bottom
looking at last week's average : 1.23

EDIT : i strongly believe in the mean reversion principle. Especially after the wild move on friday
  • #676,855
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:19pm Aug 7, 2012 3:19pm
Quoting Vachus
Still holding my shorts and from what i seen the 950 is not as strong as it used to be , maybe 750 might be the wall waiting - its almost 75 points from the previous high ...

it make really wonder , where is the bloody bottom
picking bottoms leads to smelly fingers

sorry i couldn't resist

I wouldn't go long until momentum shows a shift to the upside on smaller TFs (actually I wouldn't go long at all until fundamentals change but thats me)

Daily pivot is close too (2394) first need to see if it holds
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #676,856
  • Edited 3:33pm Aug 7, 2012 3:22pm | Edited 3:33pm
Quoting divak
looking at last week's average : 1.23

EDIT : i strongly believe in the mean reversion principle. Especially after the wild move on friday

I agree with that last bit about mean reversion in general.

But Friday was different: everyone kept asking "why is it going up?" (I was watching the forums) -- that is a situation that causes bears to become trapped. They go short for the (stupid) reason that there is no reason to go long.

It doesn't happen that often with such a large move. I think Friday was pretty rare.
Attachment 1015011

EDIT: that is why I think price is very unlikely to fall past 2350 before the passage of time, a move to 2500+, or some huge tape bomb (eg: war in the Middle East)... there are just too many trapped bears.
  • #676,857
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:25pm Aug 7, 2012 3:25pm
Quoting divak
its correct, though QE3 is about buying bonds on secondary markets. So the money influx is valid till the bonds are sold back later on by the Central Bank.

So its different from direct buying of bonds from the governments directly. Which means holding till maturity. The money influx is more permanent, as opposed to the first one that is meant to free some cash temporarily
good explanation
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #676,858
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:28pm Aug 7, 2012 3:28pm
Quoting RWalker
I agree with that last bit about mean reversion in general.

But Friday was different: everyone kept asking "why is it going up?" (I was watching the forums) -- that is a situation that causes bears to become trapped. They go short for the (stupid) reason that there is no reason to go long.

It doesn't happen that often with such a large move. I think Friday was unique.

EDIT: that is why I think price is very unlikely to fall past 2350 before the passage of time, a move to 2500+, or some huge tape bomb (eg: war in the Middle East)
agree. However, daily FX shows us that movements without fundamentals dont last long. Especially friday, more than 200 pips (!) on nothing!
  • #676,859
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:28pm Aug 7, 2012 3:28pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
good explanation
thx
  • #676,860
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:31pm Aug 7, 2012 3:31pm
I'm not trying to catch a bottom and ride it till the top , i'm looking for the base for Wave 1 that should take this trend as high as 24500 ..

Anyway, the 950 looks it has been weaken , let us see what 850 has to say about that - she's a bloody pitch by the way and a tough fighter
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
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