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  • #2,641
  • Aug 7, 2012 9:33am Aug 7, 2012 9:33am
Quoting Balhana
Sold AU at 1.0590
Closed 2/3 at 1.5070 for +40 pips.
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  • #2,642
  • Aug 7, 2012 9:41am Aug 7, 2012 9:41am
Quoting Balhana
Sold GU at 1.5663
Closed 2/3 at 1.5640 for +46 pips.
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  • #2,643
  • Aug 7, 2012 9:55am Aug 7, 2012 9:55am
Quoting Balhana
Closed 2/3 at 1.5640 for +46 pips.
Close the AU and GU trade now? Need to sleep for at least a few hours because of the soccer game (Brasil vs. Korea) at 3:30am my time. It is 23:53 now. Otherwise I will not be able to work!! What should I do??
  • #2,644
  • Aug 7, 2012 10:02am Aug 7, 2012 10:02am
Quoting Balhana
Close the AU and GU trade now? Need to sleep for at least a few hours because of the soccer game (Brasil vs. Korea) at 3:30am my time. It is 23:53 now. Otherwise I will not be able to work!! What should I do??

Closed the remainders of the AU and GU trades at 1.0564 for +26 pips (+66 pips in total) and 1.5643 for +20 pips (+66 pips in total), respectively.
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  • #2,645
  • Aug 7, 2012 10:22am Aug 7, 2012 10:22am
Did the same with GU, good job Balhana
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DM if you have any questions
  • #2,646
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:24pm Aug 7, 2012 2:24pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Gold short - FB off an SR after reacted off supply. Some profit taken at the SR flip it just hit.
Closed final position on Gold.
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  • #2,647
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:26pm Aug 7, 2012 2:26pm
Took a partial loss on AJ - reaction off daily supply and close below SR - price really didn't react like I expected so scaled out.

I don't watch GU that closely so got in later relative to others, waited for the demand to break and got in on the retrace for some easy pips.
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  • #2,648
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:32pm Aug 7, 2012 2:32pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Been taking it easy lately as it's the vacation season.

Firstly a side note - plenty of people moan about trading at this time of year - as traders we have to adapt to different trading conditions and summer trading can still produce great setups if you know how to adapt...the people that can't, moan, the people that can make money.

I took a short on Dow today (which I'm still in). I took the setup on the rolling but the same setup exists on the futures. I've marked the trades I'm in on the futures chart (as most have access to futures but...
Outcome of the Dow short - scaled out due to bullish PA, net +4.5R to go with the +4.7R today.

Will go through the reasoning as per the Q's above later
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  • #2,649
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:36pm Aug 7, 2012 3:36pm
Received a ton of emails with responses, didn't get time to read them all today...some on the right track some not. The fact that virtually every response referred to some chart pattern sums up the inability of retail traders to read pure price action.

Quote
1. Taken from the daily supply zone.

Yes, it was a daily SR and a clear H4 DBD zone, so trade 1 was an FTB to this zone.

Quote
2. Price might react further into the supply zone, so you would give it more time/space. The way price moved up looks like a CP.

Yes, but you always want to identify where the major decisions were made / source of supply were within the zone. In this case (as per chart 2 below) this was at 13,131 i.e. where price reacted - if price had moved higher I'd be decreasing my exposure.

Quote
3. Pattern-wise, its a clear triangle and is confluence with mini supply there can see the reaction at that zone, price is literally pushed down. Again,CP on the way up.

Nothing to do with any obvious pattern, it's just watching price and identifying what it's telling us. Focus on what price is telling you and not looking for patterns.

See chart 3 below.

Quote
4. Stops are accumulated below the 13106. We have three bounces, meaning there should be some decent amount of stops from people expecting the support to hold and break long. 'Vacuum' below the stops. Stops tripped and price moved down with good momentum.

Yes - stops and vacuum.

Quote
5. Not much raction at the demand as it seems stops are hunted below the demand and bids are weak. If bids are strong, should expect price to have at least a decent reaction. It closes below support which should be good signal for more bearish. Maybe you are expecting demand turn into supply scenario.

Overall it looks like it is forming a HS pattern on hourly.

Price is moving with strong momentum from a distance (i.e. its not a liquidity spike) which tells us strong sellers in control.

Price has also closed below an SR - which could accelerate gains to the downside from an order-flow perspective...but it didn't materialise and I scaled out when I saw bullish PA.
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  • #2,650
  • Aug 8, 2012 5:51am Aug 8, 2012 5:51am
Waiting for price to get to the decision point that broke the bearflag (DBD) and watch for bearish PA to sell EJ, currently long on a nice PB @ 1H-demand
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Pipcrawler
  • #2,651
  • Aug 8, 2012 5:59am Aug 8, 2012 5:59am
Sold GN at 1.9210
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  • #2,652
  • Aug 8, 2012 6:28am Aug 8, 2012 6:28am
Quoting Balhana
Sold GN at 1.9210
Stopped out at 1.9235 for -25 pips (-50 pips in total).
  • #2,653
  • Aug 8, 2012 6:29am Aug 8, 2012 6:29am
Quoting Balhana
Sold GN at 1.9210
This is a good area to watch, but I'm personally looking for a stronger signal that bullish traders have been caught on the offside. That is of course just my opinion
  • #2,654
  • Aug 8, 2012 6:45am Aug 8, 2012 6:45am
Not a pair I watch, but I'd be looking higher up for a short setup.

Am currently short AU based on 10min pin off potential H1 QM right shoulder.
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  • #2,655
  • Aug 8, 2012 7:06am Aug 8, 2012 7:06am
Quoting 5.25
This is a good area to watch, but I'm personally looking for a stronger signal that bullish traders have been caught on the offside. That is of course just my opinion
I agree that it was not a strong bull trap. Actually I took it based on daily resistance. Maybe my SL was too tight.

Bought USD/CAD at 0.9965 based on daily demand and 15M QM.
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  • #2,656
  • Aug 8, 2012 7:11am Aug 8, 2012 7:11am
Quoting xmzhang
Waiting for price to get to the decision point that broke the bearflag (DBD) and watch for bearish PA to sell EJ, currently long on a nice PB @ 1H-demand
Yes, closed long and sold EJ, as price hits DBD-supply / broken bearflag it started to flag, sell trigger as flag resolves south
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Pipcrawler
  • #2,657
  • Edited 7:52am Aug 8, 2012 7:27am | Edited 7:52am
Quoting xmzhang
Yes, closed long and sold EJ, as price hits DBD-supply / broken bearflag it started to flag, sell trigger as flag resolves south
Locked in some nice profit, my first area of trouble was the base of that miniflag into the DBD-supply, looking closely at the 1m-TF you'll see price flagged a moment when it hits that base but then decided that price was still to expensive and dropped like a hot potato, it could easily bounce and then pulled back to the broken miniflag.
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Pipcrawler
  • #2,658
  • Aug 8, 2012 8:03am Aug 8, 2012 8:03am
Quote
Am currently short AU based on 10min pin off potential H1 QM right shoulder.

Took final profit when price reacted off the daily demand couple with S&P sitting on support for +1.9R.

Am now long EU from 1.2328 and have reduced net risk to zero by banking 50% profit at FLR of 1.2345 and reducing SL by same amount of pips.
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  • #2,659
  • Edited 9:07am Aug 8, 2012 8:11am | Edited 9:07am
Quoting xmzhang
Locked in some nice profit, my first area of trouble was the base of that miniflag into the DBD-supply, looking closely at the 1m-TF you'll see price flagged a moment when it hits that base but then decided that price was still to expensive and dropped like a hot potato, it could easily bounce and then pulled back to the broken miniflag.
Nice trade. 96.90 proved to be a very strong level. Question: Would you assume that the mini flag compressed into that level leaving demand exhuasted? Hence the hot potato???

Thinking out aloud here...
  • #2,660
  • Aug 8, 2012 8:51am Aug 8, 2012 8:51am
Quoting 5.25
Nice trade. 96.90 proved to be a very strong level. Question: Would you assume that the mini flagged compressed into that level leaving demand exhuasted? Hence the hot potato???

Thinking out aloud here...
Price left the DBD-supply and made a pole as soon as the pole hits HTF-demand its starts to pullback (actual flag), in this pullback price was rising and dipping down, that is consuming demand ie. compression. When the flag hits its FTA ie. the DBD-supply it makes a horizontal miniflag (equilibrium), this miniflag tells us that price could go north or south. Then it's decided to go south, I could've told you that in advance becose this is the path of least resistance due to the compression before ................ so you see price thinks ahead and is a TRUE leading indicator
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Pipcrawler
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