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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #46,361
  • Aug 7, 2012 5:22am Aug 7, 2012 5:22am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Well E/J has broken down below the daily pivot, I should suspect E/U will do the same if correlation is still there.
hello see also usdchf, for the correlation thing
  • #46,362
  • Aug 7, 2012 5:25am Aug 7, 2012 5:25am
Quoting Islander
Thanks ST.....poor German data and we're back up to the 2420 area
I don't get it. See my edit of previous post. My sentiment.
  • #46,363
  • Aug 7, 2012 5:29am Aug 7, 2012 5:29am
Boring...

Need a real direction...
AM Signal Provider
  • #46,364
  • Aug 7, 2012 5:33am Aug 7, 2012 5:33am
I don't usually trade on 5min TF but we definitely have a bearish divergence forming. This pair is ranging so bad, you can't scalp unless ur on the 5min TF.
  • #46,365
  • Aug 7, 2012 5:40am Aug 7, 2012 5:40am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
My guess is dollar is getting pounded by other currencies thus dragging E/U with it. Only explanation.
I'd say that the short covering and un-winding of real money hedges that started after the ECB press conference are likely to continue until Mario has shown his cards. Only thing holding the Euro down is various barrier defenses plus the usual equity correlation, I would guess.
  • #46,366
  • Aug 7, 2012 5:50am Aug 7, 2012 5:50am
Quoting medici
I'd say that the short covering and un-winding of real money hedges that started after the ECB press conference are likely to continue until Mario has shown his cards. Only thing holding the Euro down is various barrier defenses plus the usual equity correlation, I would guess.
Possibly. We can even add the SNB into the mix, as they are trying to protect their precious 1.20 floor.
  • #46,367
  • Aug 7, 2012 5:58am Aug 7, 2012 5:58am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Possibly. We can even add the SNB into the mix, as they are trying to protect their precious 1.20 floor.
Thanks. Whiile I used to entertain speculations like this, I find it less useful, or even detrimental, to trading. But what to do when the long from 1.2406 stalled?
  • #46,368
  • Aug 7, 2012 6:02am Aug 7, 2012 6:02am
Quoting Playboy
Boring...

Need a real direction...
Yeah waiting game continues, wait until PT bring the hammer
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  • #46,369
  • Aug 7, 2012 6:09am Aug 7, 2012 6:09am
Quoting medici
Thanks. Whiile I used to entertain speculations like this, I find it less useful, or even detrimental, to trading. But what to do when the long from 1.2406 stalled?
True. We can only trade what we see and not on speculation.
  • #46,370
  • Aug 7, 2012 6:10am Aug 7, 2012 6:10am
Quoting rekon67
Yeah waiting game continues, wait until PT bring the hammer
Hope he brings one bigger then that Rekon.
  • #46,371
  • Aug 7, 2012 6:19am Aug 7, 2012 6:19am
Quoting medici
Thanks. Whiile I used to entertain speculations like this, I find it less useful, or even detrimental, to trading. But what to do when the long from 1.2406 stalled?
Good Afternoon - good to see you here.........I got in a little lower, so I guess that you'll like this chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: € aug 7 70 pip 0852 uk.png Size: 18 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #46,372
  • Aug 7, 2012 6:20am Aug 7, 2012 6:20am
This waiting game is getting tiresome. There's still opportunities to scalp but I'm not taking any big gambles on direction at all at the moment. Did a small scalp yesterday for +10, got bored and went out to enjoy the day.

I have a pending sell limit at 1.2450 and was hoping to get it triggered on a spike during early London hours. Max was 1.24314 so didn't get triggered.

It's going to be another beautiful day here (and probably boring in the markets) so I'm going to be heading out to the beach for another kiteboarding lesson. Sitting in front of the computer all day to watch it go nowhere is not fun at all

However, the company here is always interesting and fun to chat with
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #46,373
  • Aug 7, 2012 6:22am Aug 7, 2012 6:22am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Hope he brings one bigger then that Rekon.
Choose any till we get our Master in action
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hammers.png Size: 867 KB
  • #46,374
  • Aug 7, 2012 6:23am Aug 7, 2012 6:23am
Quoting Cgb
It's going to be another beautiful day here (and probably boring in the markets) so I'm going to be heading out to the beach for another kiteboarding lesson. Sitting in front of the computer all day to watch it go nowhere is not fun at all

However, the company here is always interesting and fun to chat with
where do you kiteboard?
lake ontario, georgian bay, or lake simcoe?
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #46,375
  • Aug 7, 2012 6:27am Aug 7, 2012 6:27am
Quoting Islander
Good Afternoon - good to see you here.........I got in a little lower, so I guess that you'll like this chart
Hello mate I got that one too, but my post actually referred to a long taken after the 11am news which would have been worth holding on to, but now lunch...
  • #46,376
  • Aug 7, 2012 6:29am Aug 7, 2012 6:29am
Quoting Cgb
This waiting game is getting tiresome. There's still opportunities to scalp but I'm not taking any big gambles on direction at all at the moment. Did a small scalp yesterday for +10, got bored and went out to enjoy the day.

I have a pending sell limit at 1.2450 and was hoping to get it triggered on a spike during early London hours. Max was 1.24314 so didn't get triggered.

It's going to be another beautiful day here (and probably boring in the markets) so I'm going to be heading out to the beach for another kiteboarding lesson. Sitting...

Hey C. I'm landlocked. I didn't know they had beaches in Canada besides the coastline. Perhaps a man made beach at a lake?

We have lakes that feature topless women though. Sometimes nude!
  • #46,377
  • Aug 7, 2012 6:31am Aug 7, 2012 6:31am
As some of you here might know I use the flow of funds to tell me which way the EUR/USD will go. Charts have a role however only after the money flows move them. That is as basic as I can make it.

At the moment I would love to short EUR/USD however my Trade Plan is to do nothing until I see if we have Risk on or Risk off.

My own personal call on EUR/USD is for it to head down between now and Friday however that will always depend on Risk on or Risk off. I will only go short EUR/USD when I see it at the top of the range. Since I am a short term fundamental FX trader I will use the 15 minute TF. I will see where first Resistance is and based on my FXCM UK Platform I see the High as 1.2443 so my Resistance is 1.2450.

I scale in my shorts so I will first short one position of 100K and if confident scale in a second position short of 100K with my MAXIMUM Risk 50 PIPS so my MAXIMUM loss is $1000 US on Capital of $50,000 US. That is just 2% on this Trade Plan. For the moment the Trade Plan is to stay out until I see the pattern this morning.

I now start by setting my goalposts so that I can see if the playing field will change during this mornings trading.

The Retail trade is now on board and you can be 95% sure they will be going in the wrong direction so if EUR/USD moves up even with Bad News it means nothing.

My Goalposts are as follows during the NAIR period between 7:00 AM and 10:00 AM EST. NAIR was the name suggested by PipTrapper while the original name is NARE. (North America Retail Effect)

Dow Futures + 31
Oil Up $ .28 cents at $92.47 US
Gold Up $1.65 at $1617.50

We have Risk On for the moment.

The Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds is .25% and the 10 Year US Bonds are 1.59% with the spread 134 Basis Points between the two of them.

As we go from Risk on to Risk off the Money FLOWS back into US Dollars first and then into the US Bonds as the price of the US Bonds go up and the Yields go down.

Europe Equities are mixed with the FTSE down and the CAC and DAX up some.

The Currency Goalposts are as follows:

EUR/USD 1.2419
EUR/JPY 97.34
USD/JPY 78.36
GBP/USD 1.5658
USD/CHF 96.75
EUR/CHF 1.2015
USD/CAD 99.80

There is CORRELATION usually between EUR/USD and EUR/JPY depending what USD/JPY is doing.

USD/JPY and US Dollar Index usually get Stronger when RISK is off.

As the numbers change all the currencies adjust and THEN the CHARTS CHANGE.

When US DATA comes out at 8:30 AM we have NEW INFORMATION that is filtered into the various Asset Classes. Then at 9:30 AM EST when the North America Equities markets open we have the REAL numbers showing on the DOW and the money flow really KICKS in as we go from FUTURES to the Real Deal.

Then we have Option Expiry every morning at 10:00 AM EST and NEW Data on some days in the USA.

Europe Equities CLOSE at 11:30 AM EST and by NOON only North America is around.

I hope this post helps some of you with Open Minds.

Trade Well and have a Good Trade Plan along with an EXCELLENT RISK MANAGEMENT Plan.

On My 15 Minute Chart We are now at the Top of the Bollinger Bands !!!

The SAR is in RED heading down. I watch and wait patiently.

http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?rela...99219476031250
  • #46,378
  • Aug 7, 2012 6:39am Aug 7, 2012 6:39am
Quoting gnomoneey
where do you kiteboard?
lake ontario, georgian bay, or lake simcoe?
I'm taking lessons at Sauble Beach on Lake Huron. But all of those places offer kiteboarding locations when the wind is just right.

Quoting FXSwissTrader
Hey C. I'm landlocked. I didn't know they had beaches in Canada besides the coastline. Perhaps a man made beach at a lake?

We have lakes that feature topless women though. Sometimes nude!
Errr... Ever hear to the Great Lakes??? Miles and Miles of sandy beaches. A few years ago Ontario passed the Topless Law whereby women could go topless in public. Many took advantage of it (and some that shouldn't have) at beaches, but it was noty long lived and the novelty wore off.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #46,379
  • Aug 7, 2012 6:39am Aug 7, 2012 6:39am
Quoting CurrencyMan
As some of you here might know I use the flow of funds to tell me which way the EUR/USD will go. Charts have a role however only after the money flows move them. That is as basic as I can make it.

At the moment I would love to short EUR/USD however my Trade Plan is to do nothing until I see if we have Risk on or Risk off.

My own personal call on EUR/USD is for it to head down between now and Friday however that will always depend on Risk on or Risk off. I will only go short EUR/USD when I see it at the top of the range. Since I am a short term...
Thanks for an informed post CM.
  • #46,380
  • Aug 7, 2012 6:43am Aug 7, 2012 6:43am
Quoting Cgb
I'm taking lessons at Sauble Beach on Lake Huron. But all of those places offer kiteboarding locations when the wind is just right.



Errr... Ever hear to the Great Lakes??? Miles and Miles of sandy beaches. A few years ago Ontario passed the Topless Law whereby women could go topless in public. Many took advantage of it (and some that shouldn't have) at beaches, but it was noty long lived and the novelty wore off.
Lake Ontario must be cleaner then Lake Erie. At least on the American side. I wouldn't put a toe in Lake Erie. But that was many many years ago.
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