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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #46,341
  • Aug 7, 2012 1:35am Aug 7, 2012 1:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
In the end, the fundies will decide which way we go... not the EW count.
As they allways do. Funda makes direction, tech. is there to say to us how it will get there.
  • #46,342
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:10am Aug 7, 2012 2:10am
Quoting Islander
No pull back, just on to a new high for today in a very high volumed 5 min graveyard doji hit yesterday afternoon's Lower High at 2430 - a good place to close out the remainder. Now with today's quota banked I'll go out until the German Factory Orders in an hour and a half......if that comes in worse than expected it could trigger a sell off.....TWT
Good scalping pip pirate.
  • #46,343
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:12am Aug 7, 2012 2:12am
Good morning everyone.

Most important level to watch as PT has pointed out is S&P futures 1400.00 level. Could be key as to which direction it will push currencies today. Happy trading.
  • #46,344
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:16am Aug 7, 2012 2:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
In the end, the fundies will decide which way we go... not the EW count.

E/U H4
Attachment
Fundamentals tell us which way we're going, and technicals provide us with entry/exits points. That's how I see it.
  • #46,345
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:18am Aug 7, 2012 2:18am
H4 update.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #46,346
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:20am Aug 7, 2012 2:20am
Italian GDP fell off the cliff! Euro back down. We wait for German factory orders at the top of the hour.
  • #46,347
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:28am Aug 7, 2012 2:28am
Daily Forex Brief

The gloves are coming off

Tue. 7th of Aug 2012 @ 07:26 GMT
http://www.fxpro.co.uk/sites/default...rf%2024h_0.png
Most worrying for the single currency during this summer hiatus is that the nature of the dialogue between Europe’s major policy-makers has become increasingly acrimonious. In an interview with Der Spiegel yesterday, Italian Prime Minister Monti warned of a “psychological dissolution of Europe” because of the ongoing tensions in the eurozone over recent years. Monti remains... more
  • #46,348
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:29am Aug 7, 2012 2:29am
Should PA move to test the daily pivot. If it breaks, we'll retest Asian low near the 23.6% fib retrace of last Friday L/H move. If that is breached, next stop is @ 220EMA near yesterday's low. If we happen to breach all these levels, we should be capped at the 800EMA/daily range H/L, daily S2 confluence around 1.2290/1.2300 area.

GL
  • #46,349
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:30am Aug 7, 2012 2:30am
http://finviz.com/forex.ashx

http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?rela...98612367125000
  • #46,350
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:41am Aug 7, 2012 2:41am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Should PA move to test the daily pivot. If it breaks, we'll retest Asian low near the 23.6% fib retrace of last Friday L/H move. If that is breached, next stop is @ 220EMA near yesterday's low. If we happen to breach all these levels, we should be capped at the 800EMA/daily range H/L, daily S2 confluence around 1.2290/1.2300 area.

GL

Yet again your MA's are sitting where my order is but for different reasons

I've got a pending at about 2290 for a 50% retrace of this big move again.

I think this occurs because a 50% retrace of a large range move is likely to be in the same area as the (moving) average of the range, but hopefully your MA's will be kind to me this time, if we get so far

Technical analysis is funny
"Don't Panic..."
  • #46,351
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:43am Aug 7, 2012 2:43am
Price holding @ 2400...Im short term bullish with a BO to the daily R1 @ 2430...if the DP holds a bounce would confirm..lets see what she wants to do...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #46,352
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:50am Aug 7, 2012 2:50am
Quoting Halifax
Yet again your MA's are sitting where my order is but for different reasons

I've got a pending at about 2290 for a 50% retrace of this big move again.

I think this occurs because a 50% retrace of a large range move is likely to be in the same area as the (moving) average of the range, but hopefully your MA's will be kind to me this time, if we get so far

Technical analysis is funny
Funny how PA is so attracted to those two MA's, huh? I hope you get your trade triggered this time, but hopefully with good result. We should be ranging all month IMO.
  • #46,353
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:53am Aug 7, 2012 2:53am
Quoting CurrencyMan
http://finviz.com/forex.ashx

http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?rela...98612367125000
I find an useful real time visual on Relative and Absolute Currency Strength for all the major pairs and TFs. Worth looking.

Relative and Absolute Real Time Currency Strength
  • #46,354
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:01am Aug 7, 2012 3:01am
German factory orders SUCK wind. Down we should go.
  • #46,355
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:05am Aug 7, 2012 3:05am
Hi guys,

I am again passing by with a little thought. Those 200 Bn of sterilized EUR mature tomorrow. So, either ECB acts today or tomorrow, or it is kinda equal to sell of this amount, as it will come back to the market (considering it is already priced in and it is only short term liquidity which will very possibly be taken away again). So beware, they may act.

http://www.ecb.int/mopo/implement/om.../index.en.html

Moreover, although we are currently unable to break highest h1 close at 24264, we are challenging 2406 and that is not a weak number. if broken on daily chart, we may be going much more up.

GL,

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #46,356
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:06am Aug 7, 2012 3:06am
M15 range will break down or up? that's the question, atm.
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  • #46,357
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:07am Aug 7, 2012 3:07am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi guys,

I am again passing by with a little thought. Those 200 Bn of sterilized EUR mature tomorrow. So, either ECB acts today or tomorrow, or it is kinda equal to sell of this amount, as it will come back to the market (considering it is already priced in and it is only short term liquidity which will very possibly be taken away again). So beware, they may act.

http://www.ecb.int/mopo/implement/om.../index.en.html

Moreover, although we are currently unable to break highest h1 close at 24264, we are challenging 2406 and that is...
Nice to see you here Tom. Thanks for the heads up. Hope you're not working too hard. Manual labor really sucks.
  • #46,358
  • Edited 3:22am Aug 7, 2012 3:09am | Edited 3:22am
Quoting catwoman
M15 range will break down or up? that's the question, atm.
Well E/J has broken down below the daily pivot, I should suspect E/U will do the same if correlation is still there.


Edit: E/J went back over daily pivot. This PA is stupid crazy. Good numbers it goes up, bad numbers it goes up, Spain bonds yield higher, it goes up. ECB doing nothing, it goes up, hopium in the air, it goes up. Merkel farts, it goes up. WTF!

My guess is dollar is getting pounded by other currencies thus dragging E/U with it. Only explanation.
  • #46,359
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:17am Aug 7, 2012 3:17am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Nice to see you here Tom. Thanks for the heads up. Hope you're not working too hard. Manual labor really sucks.
I like it. I have chosen this way since university. If I work with my head, I am unable to analyze FX once I get home. You know my friend Information overflow? He really is bastard.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #46,360
  • Aug 7, 2012 3:21am Aug 7, 2012 3:21am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Good scalping pip pirate.
Thanks ST.....poor German data and we're back up to the 2420 area
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