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  • #676,221
  • Aug 6, 2012 10:32am Aug 6, 2012 10:32am
i dont think this beast gonna drop this week. It will be maybe next week tuesday/wednesday a nice retracement...

its heading to 1.27xx for sure
  • #676,222
  • Aug 6, 2012 10:35am Aug 6, 2012 10:35am
Quoting attila
Nobody, I think.. Even though I said "they".. Candles represent the the sentiment of the market.. Many times they get changed the last second.. Many times they don't.. Think about it.. Let's say H1 is dropping slowly and it's ready to bearish engulf the previous candle.. What could happen, as it drops it finds a heavy buy right underneath that sends it up.. Does it mean it was manipulated? I don't believe so. It's just what may happen on the lower time frames that makes it change on a dime..

That's the reason we always have to wait for...
Thanks we are on the same page - now I know I think in a right way
swing it!
  • #676,223
  • Aug 6, 2012 10:37am Aug 6, 2012 10:37am
Quoting tomspin
Thanks we are on the same page - now I know I think in a right way
yeah... smaller TFs build the higher ones but only at turns
  • #676,224
  • Aug 6, 2012 10:38am Aug 6, 2012 10:38am
lol - yeah, i had really to lough now

1. why do u call us newbees? maybe some have more experience than u...
2. Yes, FX is exchange - like the NYSE, so are u buying and selling stocks or "exchanging" them?????
3. is absolutely not a fight against banks - its simple to be "better" than the market"
4. Banks are the Market? I, u and all other traders make part of the market too... i can also act as a market maker like banks do... (of course banks make a big share of the market but per definition they arent the market...only a part (also even its a really big part) of it
5. "Commercial and investment banks possess a unique knowledge of the marketplace and have the ability to monitor the activities of other participants such as the central banks and investment funds." Really? have they? maybe some insiders have but if really every bank has i m really wondering why JPM lost money last month and why Lehman collapsed...

even if u r the best trader of the world...dont think that only ur idea is the right one...


Quoting fxkiller
[b][color="DarkRed"]you newbees here will not understand that.. that only this world means lot for traders..

now you may find this post funny or will not understand it, but if stay long-term in fx like me for over 6 yrs now, u will get that point..

1. Forex = Forgein Currency exchange, we all know that! But it is not trading! Trading is the work, what we do, but market it selfs is an exchange. As i said, most of you think or beleive, that this is fight between traders or you against the banks!

Which is actually totally a wrong view! We...
Pecunia non olet
  • #676,225
  • Aug 6, 2012 10:38am Aug 6, 2012 10:38am
Quoting fearlessnut
i dont think this beast gonna drop this week. It will be maybe next week tuesday/wednesday a nice retracement...

its heading to 1.27xx for sure
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  • #676,226
  • Aug 6, 2012 10:43am Aug 6, 2012 10:43am
Quoting Vachus
I don't think so, there is a huge short covering on the way ...
Hmmm ... upside capped and limited ...

Let's see ...

Doesn't really look as if mkt wants to give you right ...




2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #676,227
  • Aug 6, 2012 10:43am Aug 6, 2012 10:43am
Quoting RWalker
First Q: because I have read FF threads occasionally and comments like Attila makes, I've gone from thinking candles were a crutch devised to help traders who weren't able to extract pa from noise or visualize complex relationships and a crutch with a defect: if the sampling offsets shifted relative to price movements (ie: move the time base, and candles form completely different patterns) ===> to thinking I missed something, and the position of the time base is an important part of what it's all about.

I've read comments by Attila, Cloggie and...
Sorry mate I must have missunderstood your posts before - I am not a native speaker, candles lie on lower TF's but not on H4 or Daily - that rarely happens. H4 swings are often started by rejection & confusion - doji's hammers & pins - a little heads up if you whish to use them.
I refuse to accept that shape of the candle is manipulated for reason to confuse traders. It is just visual representation of price movement, and they work the same way as S&R or pivots - they work cause millions of traders around the world look at them and act "toghether" around them.
As I said start of new momentum and new swing is never idicated by a false candle.
swing it!
  • #676,228
  • Aug 6, 2012 10:47am Aug 6, 2012 10:47am
Quoting tomspin
Sorry mate I must have missunderstood your posts before - I am not a native speaker, candles lie on lower TF's but not on H4 or Daily - that rarely happens. H4 swings are often started by rejection & confusion - doji's hammers & pins - a little heads up if you whish to use them.
I refuse to accept that shape of the candle is manipulated for reason to confuse traders. It is just visual representation of price movement, and they work the same way as S&R or pivots - they work cause millions of traders around the world look at them and act "toghether"...
yes, and the reverse is not true, unfortunately.. a valid candle (or group) doesn't always signal a swing/turn/etc. Taking them out of context (the candles), statistics are pretty dismal..
  • #676,229
  • Aug 6, 2012 10:53am Aug 6, 2012 10:53am
Quoting tomspin
Sorry mate I must have missunderstood your posts before - I am not a native speaker, candles lie on lower TF's but not on H4 or Daily - that rarely happens....
Quoting attila
yes, and the reverse is not true, unfortunately.. a valid candle (or group) doesn't always signal a swing/turn/etc. Taking them out of context (the candles), statistics are pretty dismal..

Thank you both very much! A lot to think about.

Better get back to business...
  • #676,230
  • Aug 6, 2012 10:56am Aug 6, 2012 10:56am
Quoting fxkiller
95% of members here dont know what Forex actually is.. it is not only about trading..

its NOT only a fight between traders or banks. Its an exchange, which is happening every second around the global..

so someone is giving you money, you will soon give him back
Thats very true... but all I need to be profitable is just give them less then they give to me...knowledge about forex does not make anybody profitable... so someone can have greatest knowledge about forex and markets and still be a loser
  • #676,231
  • Aug 6, 2012 11:00am Aug 6, 2012 11:00am
Quoting attila
yes, and the reverse is not true, unfortunately.. a valid candle (or group) doesn't always signal a swing/turn/etc. Taking them out of context (the candles), statistics are pretty dismal..
That's where sup & res plays a key role, these green lines are not properly drawn of course it is just general idea
I am sure you know what I am trying to say.

http://s12.postimage.org/rt11kqzlp/cad.gif
upload picture
swing it!
  • #676,232
  • Edited 11:03am Aug 6, 2012 11:00am | Edited 11:03am
I time to time try to contribute here something useful. Since I am not an expert in smaller moves, there is not much to contribute very frequently.

Here is a chart. All lines were drawn several weeks if not months ago and therefore pa has either confirmed or denied their utility.

Pa has responded very well to that Horizontal Yellow Resistance line and also the Diagonal Yellow Resistance line.

The diagonal yellow line is a strong resistance. This seems to have been broken, I expect the pa to travel several hundred pips in direction North. But lets see if it also breaks the horizontal one.

I think increase in the US unemployment rate from 8.2% to 8.3% has yet to affecct the market. The interest and unemployment rates always have a greater impact, but market ususally takes its time to respond.

If you are patient and can wait for several hundred pips before pa hits your tp, you always get a chance of closing your position with a small loss if fundamentals change. The main thing is that your position size should be inversely proportional to the number of pips profit/loss you are looking at.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #676,233
  • Aug 6, 2012 11:01am Aug 6, 2012 11:01am
Quoting tomspin
That's where sup & res plays a key role, these green lines are not properly drawn of course it is just general idea
I am sure you know what I am trying to say.

http://s12.postimage.org/rt11kqzlp/cad.gif
upload picture
yep.
  • #676,234
  • Aug 6, 2012 11:05am Aug 6, 2012 11:05am
Quoting Chicky
I time to time try to contribute here something useful. Since I am not an expert in smaller moves, there is not much to contribute very frequently.

Here is a chart. All lines were drawn several weeks if not months ago and therefore pa has either confirmed or denied their utility.

Pa has responded very well to that Horizontal Yellow Resistance line and also the Diagonal Yellow Resistance line.

The diagonal yellow line is a strong resistance. This seems to have been broken, I expect the pa to travel several hundred pips in direction North....

But Chicky - doesnt this directly conflict with what you are attempting to do with your experiment in your other thread?
  • #676,235
  • Aug 6, 2012 11:05am Aug 6, 2012 11:05am
Quoting fxkiller
this kind of posts always bring me to laugh..! members with no idea of next 10 pips submit stupid comments like this with over 400 pips move.. sick !!
Very good point as well ...




;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #676,236
  • Aug 6, 2012 11:08am Aug 6, 2012 11:08am
Quoting almo
But Chicky - doesnt this directly conflict with what you are attempting to do with your experiment in your other thread?
LOL. Like you said, that is an experiment................... not finished with that one. That account has so far seen 4 or 5 margin calls. Don't follow trades there until we refine the method.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #676,237
  • Aug 6, 2012 11:08am Aug 6, 2012 11:08am
All charts will show you S/R , some better than others, but it comes at a cost.

That cost is accuracy - either in Time, or in Price

If you trade lower TF's , you tend to lose the S/R's that were generated on the higher TF due to the internal trending that is occuring on the lower TF's.


if you trade the higher TF's, your missing out on the churn of the lower TF's.


SO...the real question is - can you identify what is trend vs what is a range?
  • #676,238
  • Aug 6, 2012 11:22am Aug 6, 2012 11:22am
Quoting Chicky
Pa has responded very well to that Horizontal Yellow Resistance line and also the Diagonal Yellow Resistance line.

The diagonal yellow line is a strong resistance. This seems to have been broken, I expect the pa to travel several hundred pips in direction North....
Nice inputs im expecting market range for 20-30 pips before major breakout...
  • #676,239
  • Aug 6, 2012 11:24am Aug 6, 2012 11:24am
Quoting almo
All charts will show you S/R , some better than others, but it comes at a cost.

That cost is accuracy - either in Time, or in Price

If you trade lower TF's , you tend to lose the S/R's that were generated on the higher TF due to the internal trending that is occuring on the lower TF's.


if you trade the higher TF's, your missing out on the churn of the lower TF's.


SO...the real question is - can you identify what is trend vs what is a range?
That's why it is a very good idea to have all tf's you use on one screen - it is also a very good exercise on how Tf's work together so you can forget about usual problem you described. You can see that your H4 trade is coming and execute your trade from M1. More precision = less risk
swing it!
  • #676,240
  • Aug 6, 2012 11:31am Aug 6, 2012 11:31am
Quoting tomspin
That's why it is a very good idea to have all tf's you use on one screen - it is also a very good exercise on how Tf's work together so you can forget about usual problem you described. You can see that your H4 trade is coming and execute your trade from M1. More precision = less risk
That is an excellent point Tom -

Assuming you start at the beginning of a 4H - assuming Close > Open on a 4 H, you *should* be seeing 1m trending higher. Its when you see 1 m start to go sideways is when everyone starts wondering "did trend stop".


Here's the kicker. What happened on the previous 4H candle? Are you higher than the entire bar, or still within it ?

That answer, will determine if your still ranging or if you have a real trend that is valid for a 4h chart

Once you go out to a daily chart, then you have to re-ask the same questions.


Trend therefore, is really in the eye of the beholder - and one can argue that you are really only ranging at any point in time. Or vice versa.
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