EurAnalysis

Good Morning guys.

Looks like 1.2440 held overnight. Great news for those short. Look for PA to test daily pivot, if we get through daily pivot, next is 220EMA and 800EMA. Don't know if we'll get that far today, but it is what it is. Happy trading and green pips to everyone. I'll post any relevant important news that may come up throughout the day.

hey FXSwiss which TF are you referring to for the EMAs, i recall you mentioning before but can't remember

Hello FXSwiss..

have a good sleep last night?

HnS neck can be good offer for Buyer... but fed will give important moment..:nerd:

Hey Neuron. 15Min TF. They represent the 55EMA and 200EMA on hourly without having to flip through different charts. Keeps you on same TF. Set it up to show only on that TF.

I'm not buying the EURO unless fundamentals change. Only short on rallies.

Good Morning Guys
I’ve seen some posts this weekend about how Non-Farm Payroll release badly affected your account.
Myself, I do not trade that day, because I can’t do this right...
It happened to me many times before, that even being 100% right about upcoming price movement and direction,
I was hit by quicky spikes kicking me out of the market.
So I just gave up trading NFP, and believe me, I am doing fine without it.

However if you still find it funny to trade NFP Friday have a look here below.
What those guys are doing is just “trading NFP release only”.
They cover LIVE session of EURUSD price action 30minutes before and 90 minutes after NFP.
They talk about how to handle volatility, prepare your account, when open or minimize your position and most important… HOW TO SURVIVE.
You can learn how to read and interpret data and see them trading too.
It’s paid service for LIVE sessions, I think, but archive videos are free.
So might be some of you will find it helpful...

21stcenturyforextrader.com/non-farm-replay/index.html

Morning Swissy.

2342 is 100 pip from watermark highs , was targetting 2330 area

If we see that extended I can see a test of daily pivot happening.

Below that I got 2280/90

thx

Possible morning star on E/U 30m if we close in 2375 area

I almost said "what the hell its just 10 pips" and took some profit at 2345. Oh well, all or nothing now

hi everyone, Have a good week grabbing pips. No trading for me again this week due to me actually working for a living lol. I saw history last night at the olympic stadium as in BOLT zooooooooooooom. take care all, Keep it simple

9:00am
USD
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

What Will He Say ? Will He Affect The Market ?

Only he knows. Watch the Dow Futures from 9:00 AM to 9:15 AM to see if there is any effect and watch Bond Yields on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds. See if we have Risk On or Risk Off. No other data from the USA today. Option Expiry at 10:00 AM and closing of Europe Equity markets at 11:30 AM when profits are taken off the table or positions closed.

The Pound GBP is down 71 basis points and it does have some influence on EUR/USD.

EUR/JPY is at 96.89 and it does move EUR/USD with it as USD/JPY changes. USD/JPY is at 78.35 and as it moves up, if it does it gets weaker and EUR/JPY moves up most of the time as USD/JPY gets weaker and moves up.

USD/CAD is at 99.95 and it moves down usually (Gets Stronger) as Oil and Gold move up.

The Dow Futures are UP 9 at the moment and we are in quiet time until probably 6:00 AM EST to 7:00 AM EST.

I see EUR/USD staying within the 5 Minute Chart Bollinger Band ranges.


Europe up slightly so we are calm now. The Yields on US Bonds for the 10 Year is now 1.56% and there is great JOY in Greece because the Troika has left the room and they are happy.

http://www.financialmirror.com/news-....php?nid=27077

Snippet:

Troika inspectors conclude Greek visit, back in September

06 August, 2012
Greece has made progress in finding budget cuts needed to continue its bailout programme but not all work is done and international inspectors will return in September for a final verdict, officials said on Sunday.

Inspectors from the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank - known as the troika - concluded a visit to Greece on Sunday saying the talks with the new coalition government were productive.

"Talks went well, we made good progress. We will take a break and come back in early September," the IMF's mission chief for Greece Poul Thomsen told reporters after a meeting at the finance ministry.

Greece has pledged a series of fiscal and reform measures worth 11.5 billion euros to convince international lenders to keep Athens hooked to a 130 billion euro lifeline and avoid bankruptcy.

With a 3.2 billion euro bond maturing in August and Greek officials warning the state will run out of cash within weeks, the troika's review is crucial for Greece's survival.

"The discussions on the implementation of the programme were productive and there was overall agreement on the need to strengthen policy efforts to achieve its objectives," the EU Commission, IMF and the ECB said in a joint statement.

"The Greek authorities are committed to proceeding with determination in their work over the next month," they said.

Athens blames a deeper-than-expected recession for falling behind on its targets and wants to be given more time to catch up. Lenders say slow reforms have not given the programme a chance to work.

30m Morning Star invalid (still chance for a 1hr morning star next close however)

This doesn't mean it wont turn bullish though.

Daily Forex BriefLondon: Monday 6th August 2012

Risk on for nowThe reaction of the dollar to the Friday's US labour market report was instructive, with the US currency focusing on the more bullish reaction of equities rather than the diminished prospects of further QE from the Fed. But even though the headline number may have been stronger than expected, we don't think it's going to deter the US from looking at other possible options for boosting the economy. Markets are in tentative 'risk-on' mood, with the Aussie pushing for a sustained move above the 1.05 level vs. the US dollar. The possibility of a rate cut here now looks to be slim after the recent run of strong data, which should at least offer some underlying support.
http://webr.emv2.com/fxpro/fxpro-newDB.gifhttp://webr.emv2.com/fxpro/daily-briefDB.gifhttp://webr.emv2.com/fxpro/marketnewsDB.gifhttp://www.fxpro.com/sites/default/f...0perf%207d.png

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120806171511/

Snippet:

While risk markets extended Friday's rally in Asia today, Euro also appreciated broadly. In EUR/USD's break of 1.24 level is confirming near term momentum and strength in the common currency is also seen against other counterparts. Last week, ECB President Draghi indicated that the central bank could restart bond buying to bring down borrowing costs of Spain and Italy. And that was affirmed by comments from other ECB officials. Executive Board member Coeure said that the governing council "will not accept higher sovereign bond yields due to fears of the reversibility of the euro". Meanwhile Coeure also urged ECB to consider ways to channel liquidity where it's most needed. Separately, Governing Council member Visco said that last week's ECB meeting was an "important step forward for the common currency and for spreads". He also expected a "more accommodating monetary policy in the next few months" should economy continues to slow down.

In Greece, Troika said in a statement over the weekend that "discussions on the implementation of the program were productive and there was an overall agreement on the need to strengthen policy efforts to achieve its objectives". Troika will "take a break" now and come back in early September for final reveal before deciding on release of the next tranche of bailout funds. Meanwhile, Greek Prime Minister Samaras will need to complete the EUR 11.5b austerity package before meeting Troika again.

In Spain, it was reported last Friday that prime minister might request for a full sovereign bailout. But more likely than know, he will wait for more clarify on ECB's moves before making a decision. Rajoy noted that "depending on the circumstances, we will make one decision or another... When somebody asks for something, they must know what they're asking for". one decision or another... When somebody asks for something, they must know what they're asking for". Meanwhile, Spanish Finance Minister de Guindos said over the weekend that "when we know the details, we'll have a more precise calendar". The Spanish government still has around a month to make the decision as the nest government bond auction will take place on September 6.

Latest CFTC report, as of July 31, showed traders further pare Euro short positions, which dropped by -9% to 139k contracts. Yen longs rose for the fourth consecutive to 7k to 33.2k contracts and that's a massive change from March's low of -67.6k net shorts. Aussie net longs also rose for the second consecutive weeks by over 10k to 37.2k contracts. One important development to note was that Canadian dollar position changed from -2.4k net shorts to 12.4k net longs and could have turned the falling tide that started back in May.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar is rather light today. Main focus will be on RBA meeting tomrrow, BoE inflation report on Wednesday, BoJ meeting on Thursday, plus other growth data to be released later in the week.

1hr starting to fail but still 30 mins until close.

I did take a scalp short at 76 stop at BE now

Bundesbank spokesman reiterating Germany's stance against ECB bond buying.

Closed at 56 +20

(5m bollinger band top to bottom)

Orderboard (updated)

Written by Pete Jackson
August 6, 2012 at 10:48 GMT

EUR/USD: Bids 1.2340/50 ahead of more 1.2300/20. Offers 1.2430/50 (talk of, SNB related, Dutch name and ACB offers) buy stops above. Also talk of option barriers 1.2450 and 1.2500 (also large option expiry).

GBP/USD: Offers 1.5640/50 and 1.5690/00 ahead of tech res 1.5730/35 (1.5731 200 day MA). Bids 1.5530/40 and 1.5500/10, sell stops below

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.7945/50 and tech res 0.7965/70 (55 dayMA-0.7970), Bids 0.7900/10, sell stops just below.

USD/JPY: Bids 78.20/30(importers) larger 77.90/78.10 (suggested semi official), large sell stops through 77.90 and 77.50. Offers 78.70/00 (exporters) some buy stops mixed in through 78.85, buy stops also through 79.00 just ahead of tech res at 55/200 day MA’s at 79.14/17

EUR/JPY: Bids 96.70/80, more below 96.20/40 Offers 97.20/30 and 97.70/80

AUD/JPY: Bids 82.50/60, sell stops below. Offers 83.15/20

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/30 buy stops through 1.2035 and through 1.2050

USD/CHF: Tech supp 0.9630/35 and 0.9600/10. Offers 0.9760/70

AUD/USD: Offers 1.0580/00, (1.0600 barrier) Bids 1.0530/40 and 1.0500/10, sell stops through 1.0500

EUR/AUD: Offers 1.1770/80 and 1.1845/55, likely buy stops above. Bids 1.1700/10 and 1.1650/60

NZD/USD: Offers 0.8190/00 ahead of possible barrier (0.8200), bids 0.8165/70, 0.8120/25

USD/CAD: Bids 0.9980/90. Offers 1.0020/30, tech res 1.0075/85, and 1.0095/10 (100/200 day MA’s 1.0096/1.0108)

hi TP, how does it mean we are still short?if this levels are anything to go buy.i mean how shuld i read this

It means there are buy limit orders/sell take profits placed between 2340 and 2350 so that would help support any technical support we see on our charts.

But I won't long this pair except for small scalps