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  • #675,341
  • Aug 4, 2012 8:35am Aug 4, 2012 8:35am
For now...these are just rallies in a bear market which are historically pretty strong and definitely worth trading.
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  • #675,342
  • Aug 4, 2012 9:07am Aug 4, 2012 9:07am
Rollover-Open-Survey:

UPDATE:



Quick-Tips in a TABLE SURVEY for the EUR/USD:

1.)

On a daily basis:

2012-08-03_23h45 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rollover _ W-32 # AF147 (Full Size)

This is based on latest Rollover-Open ... without any strategy text in this case ...

23h00 CET Aufdatung ...











;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #675,343
  • Aug 4, 2012 9:10am Aug 4, 2012 9:10am
Quoting forex_J
Looking back the past weekly chart and regarding eurusd, when we see something like this, it's a very strong sign for bull... Hope I'm not right coz I still have short @1.2175!

some good example
2008 Dec
2009 Apr
2010 Mar
2010 June
2011 Jan
2011 May
2011 Aug
I'm surprised once again the previous candle from the weekly chart became the fortune teller. NEVER FAILED since the Lehman Shock. Watch out the next time you see a candle beats both previous high and low. If it's white then the next candle will be white, if black then the next will be black
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  • #675,344
  • Aug 4, 2012 9:54am Aug 4, 2012 9:54am
I want to delete one OLD post of mine ... Like 2 months old ... Can anyone tell me how can I do that ?
There is no edit button present ...
Human
  • #675,345
  • Aug 4, 2012 10:08am Aug 4, 2012 10:08am
Quoting Wazka
More then 72% of players in FxPro is SHORT for the weekend.

Huge crash in monday?

http://www.fxpro.com/trading/accounts/trader-dashboard
64% on IG Markets, it's quite high.... rarely seen that much....
  • #675,346
  • Aug 4, 2012 10:13am Aug 4, 2012 10:13am
Quoting Vachus
I disagree with a SL at 1.24150 - if the price reach there , it won't come back
... of course maybe it will , not you can't be sure that the retrace will happen overthere. Good you have a tight stop loses , but to gurantee a small lose on a bad gamble and a mistake , instead of risking too much and close the trade later on with even higher loses. per in mind that you have a 4 times risk reward and the currency market is not the one to be played like that - espcially because we are blind and can't see what is really going to happen.
I agree with Killer Whale.Should of been higher over 2400 SL.
Often 10sec spike can take all those seating ducks.
It happened to me on Aud/usd when shot up 30pips for no reason then retraced.
Its something big boys know and do repeatedly.If PA retraces probability spike up 1st is huge.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #675,347
  • Aug 4, 2012 10:52am Aug 4, 2012 10:52am
Quoting pkimnyc
open positions right at the friday close isn't the way to go regardless whatever the sl is used.
i agree with what pkimnyc, Vachus and killer whale has said..

what was happening shouldn't happen if i carefully look at real market time instead of relying on local time.. i usually didnt hold any position for weekend because personally for me, it's kinda of gamble with too much risk to take.

hurm, it's useless for me to think about it now, what ever going to happen during market opening, i'll accept it as it's...
  • #675,348
  • Aug 4, 2012 11:26am Aug 4, 2012 11:26am
Quoting Myo
Goldman Sachs´s prop shop had a single losing day in 2011 (or something like that). No idea how those people work though.


btw. where´s pipnaja?

I too, miss the Naija..."Last Activity June 28, 2012"

Pipnaija, where art thou???

TIME TO LAUGH!!!

  • #675,349
  • Aug 4, 2012 2:50pm Aug 4, 2012 2:50pm
Finally got an hour close about 2320. 2370 was also providing resistance, and we've seen some pretty quick moves from that level. Myself I'll watch the PA into Sunday night and very early Monday morning est. But there is a pretty strong case for a further move higher.
  • #675,350
  • Aug 4, 2012 4:00pm Aug 4, 2012 4:00pm
Quoting Wazka
More then 72% of players in FxPro is SHORT for the weekend.

Huge crash in monday?

http://www.fxpro.com/trading/accounts/trader-dashboard
I really doubt that the so called 72% Forex retailer traders understand the difference between price movement and Price shift ... i started seeing that after the crazy rally with Draghni famous statement " The ECb will do what ever it takes to save the Euro " , they are shifting the price not moving it.

The man pulled two rabbits out of the hat in two consecutive times and at very short time - i really think , that anyone who underestimate him , is a bloody retarded ...

The ECB my Fellow comrade is among few most powerful financial institutions on earth and when its president says " The Euro will reach 1.30 and don't short the Euro ... " You have to be extremely careful not make an enemy out of him. However, Friday lesson seems was not effective enough , maybe few casualties is needed to make the example clear enough.

By the way, the link you shared proves why 95% of Forex retailer trading lose their money
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #675,351
  • Aug 4, 2012 5:08pm Aug 4, 2012 5:08pm
I am thinkin of goin long eur but not sure what price to get in i usually go high lev so a lot of times i blow my acc eventhough price gets where i anticipated
got pips!
  • #675,352
  • Edited 6:39pm Aug 4, 2012 5:35pm | Edited 6:39pm
It shows what percent are short and what percent are long.

It doesn't, of course, show what percent are short term positions and what percent are long term positions.

So depending on how long a trade is held can be a winner either direction.

Meantime on a daily basis I haven't seen anything to show me the bearish trend has turned - yet. No matter what the dragqueen does.
  • #675,353
  • Aug 4, 2012 5:39pm Aug 4, 2012 5:39pm
Quoting SunTrader
It shows what percent are short and what percent are long.

It doesn't, of course, show what percent are short term positions and what percent are long term positions.

So depending on how long a trade is held can be a winner either direction.

Meanwhile on a daily basis I haven't seen anything to show me the bearish trend has turned - yet. No matter what the dragqueen does.
long time....how have you been?...your posts were always among the best

best regards
  • #675,354
  • Aug 4, 2012 5:42pm Aug 4, 2012 5:42pm
Retail is usually on the wrong side of trade, if I see 70 % is short you better check big boys and they reduced their positions on a short side. I am confused atm, charts says buy fundies says it is all hopium and spain will replace greek drama this fall for sure. Cannot see real shift in COT this week - it is rather profit taking imo as short reduction is not overwhelmed by buyers.
swing it!
  • #675,355
  • Aug 4, 2012 6:26pm Aug 4, 2012 6:26pm
Quoting roro53
long time....how have you been?...your posts were always among the best

best regards
Hello up north.

I've been around, mostly over at the XAUUSD & XAGUSD thread.

I see this monster thread called EURUSD is the same old, same old.

In between the occassional screaming and shouting of "knowledge" some who actually know a little bit.
  • #675,356
  • Aug 4, 2012 6:30pm Aug 4, 2012 6:30pm
Quoting SunTrader
It shows what percent are short and what percent are long.

It doesn't, of course, show what percent are short term positions and what percent are long term positions.

So depending on how long a trade is held can be a winner either direction.

Meanwime on a daily basis I haven't seen anything to show me the bearish trend has turned - yet. No matter what the dragqueen does.
Wise man.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #675,357
  • Aug 4, 2012 6:55pm Aug 4, 2012 6:55pm
Quoting SunTrader
Hello up north.

I've been around, mostly over at the XAUUSD & XAGUSD thread.

I see this monster thread called EURUSD is the same old, same old.

In between the occassional screaming and shouting of "knowledge" some who actually know a little bit.
thanks....i'll catch up to you over there later..the weather is like florida up here, nice though i like it hot in summer cold in winter just right...like her (couldn't resist)

hurricanes coming, you think?

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m7...7xwvo1_500.jpg
  • #675,358
  • Aug 4, 2012 9:02pm Aug 4, 2012 9:02pm
I don't know why I'm bothering to address some comments above but here it goes.

From my testing, momentum oscillators (contrarian indicators like slow stochastics and RSI) and sentiment indicators (like put/call ratios) have the same type of characteristics. For example, a contrarian indicator can work if there is a retracement. But, it may not work in a real change of direction (in other words, when you start to see a change of direction, it's actually a new trend and not a retracement).

Another factor as some of you know is the time frame used. If you consider a 4hr candlestick chart with a technical indicator as a "rapid signal" and a daily candlestick chart as a "slow signal", you already know a rapid signal could give you more false signals while a slower signal can reduce the number of false signals. However, this comes at a cost since you end up missing part of a move with a slower signal.

So, in my opinion, a sentiment indicator's effectiveness depends on 2 factors: 1. whether it's a retracement or not 2. and the time frame used.
  • #675,359
  • Aug 4, 2012 11:20pm Aug 4, 2012 11:20pm
Quoting Vachus

By the way, the link you shared proves why 95% of Forex retailer trading lose their money
Interesting quote. As the forex retailer is also a diversified sample of people i think it's sentiment is not that dumb comparatively to those of professionals.

The crisis has showed us that 95% of "pros" are not more clever...
  • #675,360
  • Aug 4, 2012 11:25pm Aug 4, 2012 11:25pm
Quoting tomspin
Retail is usually on the wrong side of trade, if I see 70 % is short you better check big boys and they reduced their positions on a short side. I am confused atm, charts says buy fundies says it is all hopium and spain will replace greek drama this fall for sure. Cannot see real shift in COT this week - it is rather profit taking imo as short reduction is not overwhelmed by buyers.
People on the EURUSD are overall still net shorts.
That's down from the high of June 8, but still net shorts.
"Futures traders decreased bets the euro will fall against the dollar, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in the euro compared with those on a gain -- so-called net shorts -- was 138,994 on July 31, compared with 155,066 a week earlier. Net shorts reached a record 214,418 on June 8."
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