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Extreme TMA System

  • #12,401
  • Aug 3, 2012 11:55am Aug 3, 2012 11:55am
  •  Mr C
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Knowledge is "potential" power | 439 Posts
Still a Work in progress I want everything in one indicator.

PC,
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Of all the things I've lost I miss my mind the most .
  • #12,402
  • Aug 3, 2012 7:14pm Aug 3, 2012 7:14pm
  •  Mr C
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Knowledge is "potential" power | 439 Posts
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Of all the things I've lost I miss my mind the most .
  • #12,403
  • Aug 4, 2012 2:00am Aug 4, 2012 2:00am
Worth reading during the weekend :

Selling into the EUR/USD Intraday Rally

Week in FX Europe July 29-Aug 3

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (8/3/12)

Merkel’s Coalition Members Signal Acceptance Of ECB Bond-Buying

Rally Monkey: “Stop trying to explain my behaviour. I’m a monkey.”

Everybody seems surprised and not convinced of this EURO rally but really and after going deeper to find evidence ( not like i care or something ) one should take a close look at Draghi's comments and find enough reason to be bullish, phrases and words like :

1 - “to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro”.

2 - “believe me, it will be enough”, with a mad bold look.

3 - ''may undertake outright open market operations of a size adequate to meet its objective'', it suggests that it is preparing to undertake large scale asset purchases to bring down yields in southern Europe and without claiming seniority.

4 - ''I'm really surprised at the amount of attention my remarks last week received in the press,'' Draghi said. Translation: I cannot deliver the promises I implied in my London speech last week...you must have misunderstood me.

5 - the Governing Council may consider undertaking further non-standard monetary policy measures according to what is required to repair monetary policy transmission. Over the coming weeks, we will design the appropriate modalities for such policy measures.

6 - Risk premia that are related to fears of the reversibility of the euro are unacceptable, The euro is irreversible.

Such a powerful words from such a powerful man backed by almost all the members of the ECB governing council Can and will definitely spur a rally and a big one for someone who understood what it means.

Regards,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,404
  • Aug 4, 2012 2:24am Aug 4, 2012 2:24am
bassramy
During the press conference Draghi also said "don't short the euro" and "its pointless to short the Euro"
so it could be that hedge funds and institutions took note and are now rebalancing their portfolio
Have a nice day
  • #12,405
  • Aug 4, 2012 2:52am Aug 4, 2012 2:52am
Quoting Leokira
Yes that is a good analogy, one can see that you are traveling fast but it is nice to have confirmation from the speedo.

Make no mistake I love all my colorful indicators and have a myriad of templates but I am still a poor trader, but getting better because of screen time. Unless gifted I think this is a tough way to make a living, but I won't give up, even if I have use even more indicators.
If more indicators are not making you more profitable, try fewer. Indicators are backward-looking and don't have a magical insight into what the market will do in the future. Only you can develop such insights in yourself, but it takes lots of observation, lots of screen time to develop intuition. Too many indicators will just get in the way.
Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
  • #12,406
  • Aug 4, 2012 3:59am Aug 4, 2012 3:59am
Quoting bassramy
Worth reading during the weekend :

Selling into the EUR/USD Intraday Rally

Week in FX Europe July 29-Aug 3

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (8/3/12)

Merkel’s Coalition Members Signal Acceptance Of ECB Bond-Buying

[url="http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=377428"]Rally...
Thanks for the fundamental analysis. Here my technical perspective. The EURUSD H4 chart below contains a D1 TMA channel. It shows the characteristic curve on the end which I distrust for reasons discussed at length in an earlier post. However, I did a cubic polynomial regression of the last 500 bars (red curve) and it tends to confirm that the price descent is slowing. But I wouldn't read too much into the fact that it closed above the trend line, as that line only has two points of contact, and it is not decisively penetrated.

Friday's rally could extend further, depending on how long the renewed confidence of Spanish and Italian bond buyers will continue. But beyond that, the problems have not vanished. It seems clear that Greece does not have the means to repay its debts, so a default is inevitable. All that is to be decided is the timing and the form it will take -- outright default, continued haircuts or drachma followed by devaluation. As those events unfold the euro will spike lower. There is still plenty of meat on the bone for the euro bears to chew.
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Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
  • #12,407
  • Edited 9:44am Aug 4, 2012 9:32am | Edited 9:44am
  •  Mr C
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Knowledge is "potential" power | 439 Posts
Quoting Trainman
If more indicators are not making you more profitable, try fewer. Indicators are backward-looking and don't have a magical insight into what the market will do in the future. Only you can develop such insights in yourself, but it takes lots of observation, lots of screen time to develop intuition. Too many indicators will just get in the way.
I agree, any indicator can look magic if you cherry pick setups in the past and give it a colourful name I took an EMA & RSI and turned it into MagicBalls in less than an hour, now void of a conscious I would sell this indicator online something like this.

MagicBalls you will bounce all the way to the bank even a child can use this indicator all you do is wait for the bouncy balls.

Enter Long on Green exit on Red

Enter Short on red exit on Green

If you’re always in the market you can’t lose.

Now they will go on for pages about how this is ``the only indicator you will ever need``
BUT! If you act now for only $99.99 you will get these ``3 bonus indicators that are a must`` to live your dream life and they seal the deal with a screen shot like this.

PC,
Warning!! May lead to severe bankruptcy mental anguish thoughts of suicide…
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Of all the things I've lost I miss my mind the most .
  • #12,408
  • Aug 4, 2012 9:57pm Aug 4, 2012 9:57pm
Quoting Trainman
It seems clear that Greece does not have the means to repay its debts, so a default is inevitable. All that is to be decided is the timing and the form it will take -- outright default, continued haircuts or drachma followed by devaluation. As those events unfold the euro will spike lower. There is still plenty of meat on the bone for the euro bears to chew.
Maybe not because a default has already been priced in and considering that they are taking steps to stabilise the situation, a Greek exit, or even a managed default within the Eurozone could see the EUR climb higher.

Debt reduction will happen one way or another.
IMO the key is having an instrument which will bring down interest rates for Spanish and Italian bonds and to keep them down or these economies will go into a -ve spiral just like Greece
Have a nice day
  • #12,409
  • Aug 5, 2012 8:56am Aug 5, 2012 8:56am
if your trading on lme then jus can you let me know that lme products are there in mt4 or no ? if its there which company has it ?
Quoting scott-ibm
Last week, Apple share down -2.8%, google share down -4%, it made US Stock drawdown last week,.

Copper/LME/ chart 30day, which is important industry material, also downside.

Commodity also downside, those market actions impact Forex at the same time in 2012.

Now, look at Gold price@1642 last week, we will see what it will up or downside ?

brs,

SCOTT-ibm
~~~~~~~~~
  • #12,410
  • Aug 5, 2012 9:00am Aug 5, 2012 9:00am
  •  Mr C
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Knowledge is "potential" power | 439 Posts
The euro is a product of bad politics not good economics, it was conceived under the pretence it would unite the European economy. But really, their motive was political. It was to create a currency that would challenge the U.S. dollar.

When a state in the U.S. is in trouble the Federal Government can bail it out that's the difference.

The European Central Bank can print as much money as they want but have signed a Treaty that prevents them from bailing anyone out it’s modeled more as a business with shares and this won’t be resolved overnight, meanwhile all that the Eurozone countries can do is reduce labour cost by cutting jobs & wages just like Greece and they get special packages so they can drag along no real bailout who's next, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland even if the stronger economies like Germany & France wrote them a check their own bond markets would be coming under speculative attack as well the silver bullet is like the Magic Indicator this is what happens when a country loses control over its exchange rate.

Meanwhile daily trades have never been so good to me.

PC,
Of all the things I've lost I miss my mind the most .
  • #12,411
  • Aug 5, 2012 10:39am Aug 5, 2012 10:39am
Quoting Mr C
I agree, any indicator can look magic if you cherry pick setups in the past and give it a colourful name I took an EMA & RSI and turned it into MagicBalls in less than an hour, now void of a conscious I would sell this indicator online something like this.

MagicBalls you will bounce all the way to the bank even a child can use this indicator all you do is wait for the bouncy balls.

Enter Long on Green exit on Red

[size=3][font=Calibri]Enter...
Classic! Thanks for the laugh at those crooks
  • #12,412
  • Aug 6, 2012 4:07am Aug 6, 2012 4:07am

The Ramy Report



Fundamentals :

Currency Markets Look to China CPI, Euro Crisis for Direction Cues
Dollar Flat as Markets Digest US Jobs Report, Look for Next Catalyst
Halifax Reports Annual UK House Prices are Stable
Euro volatile as ECB signals awaited
Euro Falls as Italy’s Monti Says Crisis Divisions Threaten Bloc
Draghi Channeling Merkel Has Traders Raising Bets on Euro Slide
GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares steady as investors await next steps in euro crisis

Technicals :

EUR/USD halts at 1.2410/40
EUR/USD still preserves some bullish momentum since Friday, as suggested by technical indicators on a daily timeframe. However, it is expected to wane afterwards, since resistance at 1.2410/40 is already proving the present rally of the pair to be fragile. Further appreciation of the Euro will encounter levels at 1.2535 and 1.2633/44, while dips will be limited by supports at 1.2337/34 and 1.2252/26.
GBP/USD to test 1.5730/75
Rebound of the pair from 1.5517 last week confirms intentions of the cable to trade above an uptrend support and thus rechallenge a key resistance area that stretches from 1.5730 (200 day SMA) to 1.5775 (Bollinger band). Nonetheless, this zone is unlikely to be breached in near future and will cap the pair for now, while closest supports are to be found at 1.5624/08 and 1.5587.
USD/JPY falters ahead of 78.71
USD/JPY has pierced through a downtrend resistance, but proved to be incapable of surging further by bouncing off 78.71. An interim support at 78.48/43 is being eroded and may soon give in, allowing the price to drop to 78.08/77.87, below which lies subsequent levels at 77.56 and 77.34/21. In order to change the long-term outlook to bullish, USD/JPY will have to overcome 79.48/55.
USD/CHF is underpinned by 0.9707/0.9656
The currency couple attempted to push through 0.9707/0.9656, but was unsuccessful, thus pointing to its potential to resume recovery. Resistance at 0.9738/40 will stand first on its way upwards, whereas 0.9803/25 and 0.9950/1.0003 will also slow down advancement of the pair, which is not anticipated to be sharp, given mixed signals on daily and monthly timeframes.

 Daily Calendar :

For Upcoming important economic announcements see the FF calendar.

Daily Investing clichés :

There’s a lot of macro volatility right now = Don’t blame me that I keep waking up in the morning and seeing my investments have dropped in value; apparently it’s all because of these technocrats in Europe

Daily Trading Wisdom :

If you know who the enemy is and you know yourself, you will never fear the next trade. If you know yourself but not the enemy, you will win one lose one. If you do not know the enemy or yourself, you will lose on each trade.

Daily Trading Cartoons : - EURO Crisis in vacation .

Thanks Guys and Good Luck in your trading.
(Disclaimer : Don't Trust me or follow my lead i know nothing about the Financial Markets.)
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,413
  • Aug 6, 2012 5:09am Aug 6, 2012 5:09am
Daily Trade Scanner.
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,414
  • Edited 6:50am Aug 6, 2012 6:27am | Edited 6:50am
Buying Bonds against the Crisis,

How the ECB Plans to Use Its Big Bazooka.
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,415
  • Aug 6, 2012 6:40am Aug 6, 2012 6:40am
Quoting Alorente
I have changed the rules for the last time in order to get a few more trades than before. I have also adjusted the template in the new packet.zip file.

Good Luck !!
hi al. base on the new rules if i took a short trade when m15, h1, h4, is line up along with room for the trade on d1; it means i would not be able to make another short trade once pa leaves h4. i would only be able to make a long trade when pa goes below all 3 tmas ( which is a long trade). my point is trade is only applicable when all pa are beyond 3tma and since h4 tma takes an average of 5 days to reach the opposite band therefore we would have limited trades to enter on m15 or h1 if pa is not above or below h4 tma
  • #12,416
  • Aug 6, 2012 9:08am Aug 6, 2012 9:08am
Quoting Alorente
I have changed the rules for the last time in order to get a few more trades than before. I have also adjusted the template in the new packet.zip file.

Good Luck !!
Thank you for the exellent thread Al. I read this thread since last week of July and I love your trading philosophy. Simple and effective. I'm a short time trader (1m TF) and your Extreme TMA System help me alot with my trading decisions. My entry and exit points are much more accurate. If I have any idea or "smart" question about this system, I will be glad to share with you and other members. Thank you Al and all exellent contributors for guidance and wisdom. I wish you and all the members of this thread all the best and as much pips as possible .
(Sorry for my language. English is not my native language).
  • #12,417
  • Aug 6, 2012 4:30pm Aug 6, 2012 4:30pm
Hi All, I have entered SHORT on AUDUSD and NZDUSD as well as LONG on USDCAD as per the new rules last week. I'm in negative territory with all of them at this stage. My question is has anybody else entered these trades and if so how patient will we have to be with them? I'm trying to learn, thanks in advance for your help and understanding.
  • #12,418
  • Aug 7, 2012 5:45am Aug 7, 2012 5:45am
Quoting fedesch
Hi All, I have entered SHORT on AUDUSD and NZDUSD as well as LONG on USDCAD as per the new rules last week. I'm in negative territory with all of them at this stage. My question is has anybody else entered these trades and if so how patient will we have to be with them? I'm trying to learn, thanks in advance for your help and understanding.
I did the same thing - I have entered "recovery" on USD/CAD - I entered with really small positions which I will add too once they move definatively in my favor. You do need a lot of patience but with small positions you can move to other currencies and keep trading. Good luck.

Tom
  • #12,419
  • Aug 7, 2012 2:24pm Aug 7, 2012 2:24pm
I think a lot of us are in AUDUSD and USDCAD and waiting patiently. I guess that would explain how quiet its been this week.

+1 on proper position size, there's nothing better than being able to calmly wait this trade out, and absolutely the key factor in me turning the corner into finally be successful.

I too will be taking a recovery trade when the slopes realign in our favor.
  • #12,420
  • Edited 4:08pm Aug 7, 2012 3:54pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting odellcash
I think a lot of us are in AUDUSD and USDCAD and waiting patiently. I guess that would explain how quiet its been this week.

+1 on proper position size, there's nothing better than being able to calmly wait this trade out, and absolutely the key factor in me turning the corner into finally be successful.

I too will be taking a recovery trade when the slopes realign in our favor.
Same here, USD CAD, AUD USD and NZD USD.... aussie and kiwi level 3 recovery already

MOREOVER: I keep reading about having small position sizing...that makes little sense to me.... why? It's pretty simple actually: Yes, being on level 3 revovery most if the time lately i can see how important it is to have entered small positions and avoid margin calls BUT also your profits are so slim that's usually giving an R:R of 0.1 or so
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