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  • #675,281
  • Aug 3, 2012 4:20pm Aug 3, 2012 4:20pm
Quoting RWalker
Attachment

to be a little more specific, the trick is:

1. make you think you see a top (no bad news - it's gotta turn around!)
2. get you to go short
3. drive the price above what you thought was a top (most recent yellow line)
4. hope that you will stay in the position (trapped! because won't take loss) once they put you under water
5. go to step # 1, but at a higher price, and be sure keep above the last yellow line (to keep you under water)
6. rinse and repeat (putting more bears into the larder) until no one else will...
There is no trick, retailers jump on short and other speculators do the same... they try to hit a homerun everytime by setting a tight SL while the retailers let their losses pile up which adds fuel (margin call is SL).. When market sees the SL it wants it... the market mover who bought gets a payday.
  • #675,282
  • Aug 3, 2012 4:23pm Aug 3, 2012 4:23pm
Quoting sidhujag
There is no trick, retailers jump on short and other speculators do the same... they try to hit a homerun everytime by setting a tight SL while the retailers let their losses pile up which adds fuel (margin call is SL).. When market sees the SL it wants it... the market mover who bought gets a payday.

Not a trick? Okay, call it a process

I'm outta here
  • #675,283
  • Aug 3, 2012 4:25pm Aug 3, 2012 4:25pm
That was scary Friday move as usual. Luckily I'm on the correct side of the trend. Holding long from 2230.

For me it looks like a spike up to 2450-60 and then some ranging for next 2-3 days.
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #675,284
  • Aug 3, 2012 4:35pm Aug 3, 2012 4:35pm
Quoting divak
EurUSd is up more than 1.6% today. It"s a huge day. It wont go up on monday.
Correction needed.
Especially when no significant news is on the market.

I think this is mainly short covering, on a friday. Classic.
Would you like to bet on it ? Here is what may happens on Monday :

Scenario 1 : Price opens at the same close , moves around 15 pips down - the bear will think oh my god its moving , Lock and load. It hits 700 and stuck there alittle bit and you see the same Friday's trading hours pattern repeating itself , slowly climbing up step by step. And on each step , there lay a bear trap ... just like today , the price was shifting and breaking important resistance lines and people are shorting.

Scenario 2 : Like scenario 1 , but the correction wave retrace 61% giving the impression of a serious bear, people get caught and up we go.

Scenario 3 : Opens with a gap up and slow down fill the gap ( Which is unlikely to happen and i don't give it a chance it will happen.

What we have seen today is wave 3 shifted the price 150 pips up , makes really wonder wave 5 where its taking the price too...

However, you are not obligated to listen to what i say or even consider my opinion. calculated and take your risk - maybe we are wrong ( Which i really doubted it )
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #675,285
  • Aug 3, 2012 4:40pm Aug 3, 2012 4:40pm
Quoting Vachus
Would you like to bet on it ? Here is what may happens on Monday :

Scenario 1 : Price opens at the same close , moves around 15 pips down - the bear will think oh my god its moving , Lock and load. It hits 700 and stuck there alittle bit and you see the same Friday's trading hours pattern repeating itself , slowly climbing up step by step. And on each step , there lay a bear trap ... just like today , the price was shifting and breaking important resistance lines and people are shorting.

Scenario 2 : Like scenario 1 , but the correction wave...
Let's say it goes up. On what fundamentals? The ECB annoucement of yesterday? Draghi didnt say anything concrete.

The market needs fundamentals to go up IMO
  • #675,286
  • Aug 3, 2012 4:53pm Aug 3, 2012 4:53pm
What was the absolutely horrible news that came out today? I understand the unemployment rate went up by a tenth of a percent, though I don't understand how. Our unemployment was better than expected just a few days ago, and then our nonfarm payroll is massively better than expected.The PMI release today was even good. I don't understand this at all.

I thought it was good that jobs were added. It seems like a lot of jobs were added. Am I missing something here? Are people upset that there isn't going to be a QE3? I thought people were pissed off about the first one...

I guess I'm stupid!
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #675,287
  • Aug 3, 2012 4:57pm Aug 3, 2012 4:57pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
What was the absolutely horrible news that came out today? I understand the unemployment rate went up by a tenth of a percent, though I don't understand how. Our unemployment was better than expected just a few days ago, and then our nonfarm payroll is massively better than expected.The PMI release today was even good. I don't understand this at all.

I thought it was good that jobs were added. It seems like a lot of jobs were added. Am I missing something here? Are people upset that there isn't going to be a QE3? I thought people were pissed...
Well, today's move is made solely on speculation that a QE3 will happen (though Bernanke explained clearly that NOTHING will happen until september) and on the basis that EFSF may buy bonds or smthg. But what will it change about eurozone crisis? nothing much IMHO.

I expect a correction next week. 1.24 is a very big resistance and nothing fundamental has been done now to be able to break it..

Let's see then
  • #675,288
  • Aug 3, 2012 5:00pm Aug 3, 2012 5:00pm
Quoting divak
Well, today's move is made solely on speculation that a QE3 will happen (though Bernanke explained clearly that NOTHING will happen until september) and on the basis that EFSF may buy bonds or smthg. But what will it change about eurozone crisis? nothing much IMHO.

I expect a correction next week. 1.24 is a very big resistance and nothing fundamental has been done now to be able to break it..

Let's see then

So, people actually want QE3?
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #675,289
  • Aug 3, 2012 5:07pm Aug 3, 2012 5:07pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
So, people actually want QE3?
Sure, they want it, but wont get it now. Hence my expectation of a correction next week.

People got a bit too excited today. +220bps on nothing concrete...
  • #675,290
  • Aug 3, 2012 5:31pm Aug 3, 2012 5:31pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
What was the absolutely horrible news that came out today? I understand the unemployment rate went up by a tenth of a percent, though I don't understand how. Our unemployment was better than expected just a few days ago, and then our nonfarm payroll is massively better than expected.The PMI release today was even good. I don't understand this at all.

I thought it was good that jobs were added. It seems like a lot of jobs were added. Am I missing something here? Are people upset that there isn't going to be a QE3? I thought people were pissed...

Why don't people understand that once the news is released. It has already been priced in. Most of the people who end up in red 200-500 points do so, because of following "FUNDAMENTALS". FUNDAMENTALISM creates trading bias. Trading bias allows you to hold a position for a huge loss of points, which you could easily turned into a winning position had you follow the price action.
Inserted Video
  • #675,291
  • Aug 3, 2012 5:33pm Aug 3, 2012 5:33pm
Quoting divak
I expect a correction next week. 1.24 is a very big resistance and nothing fundamental has been done now to be able to break it..
Let's see then
What have we learned this week? What one expects never seems to manifest.
  • #675,292
  • Aug 3, 2012 5:43pm Aug 3, 2012 5:43pm
Quoting BinaryRocks
What have we learned this week?
Nothing.
Unless you have a different idea?
  • #675,293
  • Aug 3, 2012 5:57pm Aug 3, 2012 5:57pm
Quoting divak
Sure, they want it, but wont get it now. Hence my expectation of a correction next week.

People got a bit too excited today. +220bps on nothing concrete...
I believe Euro will hit a record low mid next week,we might see 1.19xx
  • #675,294
  • Aug 3, 2012 6:03pm Aug 3, 2012 6:03pm
Quoting ibram.forex
I believe Euro will hit a record low mid next week,we might see 1.19xx
sounds pretty low... i'm only expecting 1.224xx
  • #675,295
  • Aug 3, 2012 6:24pm Aug 3, 2012 6:24pm
"i believe", "i think" ... too funny.
  • #675,296
  • Aug 3, 2012 6:30pm Aug 3, 2012 6:30pm
Quoting Bosphorus
"i believe", "i think" ... too funny.
the funny one is looks like u going long and u will lose lol
  • #675,297
  • Aug 3, 2012 7:12pm Aug 3, 2012 7:12pm
Quoting RWalker
Attachment

to be a little more specific, the trick is:

1. make you think you see a top (no bad news - it's gotta turn around!)
2. get you to go short
3. drive the price above what you thought was a top (most recent yellow line)
4. hope that you will stay in the position (trapped! because won't take loss) once they put you under water
5. go to step # 1, but at a higher price, and be sure keep above the last yellow line (to keep you under water)
6. rinse and repeat (putting more bears into the larder) until no one else will...
not really useful - if u had say: look at the bigger picture, i would agree - good luck finding ur way - b patient
  • #675,298
  • Aug 3, 2012 7:13pm Aug 3, 2012 7:13pm
Quoting Chanya
Just got stopped out on all of my short positions based on daily chart for massive pips from 2nd July as I really tightened my stops after the following factors ...

If you know a little something about supply and demand , see H4 chart and notice we are bouncing off a strong demand level ...

On daily , we have a potential head and shoulder pattern ... Don't rely on it much ...

Buying it

...
Told you where EUR USD was headed ...
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Human
  • #675,299
  • Aug 3, 2012 7:14pm Aug 3, 2012 7:14pm
Quoting BinaryRocks
Why don't people understand that once the news is released. It has already been priced in. Most of the people who end up in red 200-500 points do so, because of following "FUNDAMENTALS". FUNDAMENTALISM creates trading bias. Trading bias allows you to hold a position for a huge loss of points, which you could easily turned into a winning position had you follow the price action.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXhZS4sHi0k
trade PA only - forget about fundamentals
  • #675,300
  • Aug 3, 2012 7:25pm Aug 3, 2012 7:25pm
with money comes responsibility - with responsibility comes money and vice versa^^
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