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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #45,821
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:32am Aug 3, 2012 8:32am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
I'm triggered @ 1.2300!
Ditto! But I slid a .2287 in there in between
  • #45,822
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:33am Aug 3, 2012 8:33am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
I'm triggered @ 1.2300!
I had a sell limit to at this level also triggered... but looking like market wants to go higher still.... Im hoping it doesnt!

Americans now in play... lets see where we go!
Cheers!!
  • #45,823
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:34am Aug 3, 2012 8:34am
Hi guys, I am just passing by.

I hope you are all ok, it was sick since yesterdays press conference. I was staying out to sort it all and didnt have time to read what have you been talking about already. It seemed market is disappointed by Draghis press conference, since he said governments must act first and ECB cant subsitute them. He was pointing towards ratification of ESM bond purchases, which is currently blocked in Bundestag, where they are going to vote for it on September. So from this point of view, it seems we should have bearish August. Nevertheless, as I keep on reminding, ECB sterilized quite loads of EUR last week, which gives her power to intervene in Spanish Stock markets and calm down situation. So although imo August should be bearish, market a) will be analyzing impacts from possible ECB actions - resulting in chop (coz noone knows what they can do untill they do it) b) should be prepared for liquidity injection in Spanish banking sector - resulting in weekly bull.

Moreover, technically, we are still stuck in heavy monthly ressistance zone between ,22 and ,234 (where we also formed monthly pivot). Currently we are charging ,2287. I think we could form Weekly doji this week and the choppy ride will continue in the next week as well.

GL,

Tom
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #45,824
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:38am Aug 3, 2012 8:38am
Quoting PipTrapper
as long as you learn
my trading recently becoming more of a shoot from the hip,unplanned,emotional and sentimental.not very happy with myself,playing like a sucker,(which i think i am).last couple of months i have lost my mojo and some confidence as well,well why i am saying is that my profits are smaller and loses are bigger.and these loses happening when i am trying to take positions with the big trend of the market.i think better i stop trading for sometime and give myself time off the market.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #45,825
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:40am Aug 3, 2012 8:40am
Quoting halkins
Please, don't wait tooooooooooo long, PT, hehehe
Attachment

But to be more serious I think we're heading to retest 1.2400, if not today then maybe Monday.
I quit idea of shorting today.
Only bad ISM can change it...
Attachment
At this point I'm not going to disagree with your short term projection, but I'm sure you realize that this is hopiumized BS. Whilst I believe it is a good idea to take advantage of market moves both ways on an intraday basis, it's just not my trading style to go counter trend.

Best of luck buddy.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,826
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:41am Aug 3, 2012 8:41am
By Goferpips: Sometimes market acts irrational, but it always wakes with a hangover when it does and low leverage trades will come back because you give trade enough room to marinate, and then when it starts a parabolic move in your direction and profits start coming in you can add to position on pull backs.


Great statement Gofer, I'm printing it and sticking it on my screen to remind me. So often I want to run in this game before I can walk!! And I keep getting burn't.

Great info today people, keep up the good work cos I'm reading it all and learning. Sorry I can't contribute anything worthwhile but hey, maybe one day, if I ever get as good as all you.

By the way, idle curiosity, are any of you ex-traders by career or are the majority on here self taught? Just interested to know
  • #45,827
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:43am Aug 3, 2012 8:43am
Quoting drzakir123
my trading recently becoming more of a shoot from the hip,unplanned,emotional and sentimental.not very happy with myself,playing like a sucker,(which i think i am).last couple of months i have lost my mojo and some confidence as well,well why i am saying is that my profits are smaller and loses are bigger.and these loses happening when i am trying to take positions with the big trend of the market.i think better i stop trading for sometime and give myself time off the market.
Not good to take trades without a plan and the confidence/conviction that goes along with it.
If you find yourself in this situation, then you are correct that it is best to take a break and regroup.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,828
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:43am Aug 3, 2012 8:43am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi guys, I am just passing by.

I hope you are all ok, it was sick since yesterdays press conference. I was staying out to sort it all and didnt have time to read what have you been talking about already. It seemed market is disappointed by Draghis press conference, since he said governments must act first and ECB cant subsitute them. He was pointing towards ratification of ESM bond purchases, which is currently blocked in Bundestag, where they are going to vote for it on September. So from this point of view, it seems we should have bearish August....
Was wondering where you were. Hope you're ok.
  • #45,829
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:46am Aug 3, 2012 8:46am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Was wondering where you were. Hope you're ok.
Since I have lost month of my work in one hour, I now need to work with hands a bit so I can pay the rent . But I have time to think of what is going on.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #45,830
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:48am Aug 3, 2012 8:48am
Quoting Toodle Pip
By Goferpips: Sometimes market acts irrational, but it always wakes with a hangover when it does and low leverage trades will come back because you give trade enough room to marinate, and then when it starts a parabolic move in your direction and profits start coming in you can add to position on pull backs.


Great statement Gofer, I'm printing it and sticking it on my screen to remind me. So often I want to run in this game before I can walk!! And I keep getting burn't.

Great info today people, keep up the good...
Hi Toodle,

I cannot speak for everyone here, but I am not a professional in this business.

Except for some time spent learning from an excellent mentor who unfortunately fell ill and passed away before he taught me everything he knew, I am pretty much self taught.

Don't be shy to post your thoughts on here. I have found that putting your thoughts and analysis in a public domain is the best way to learn about your shortcomings as other posters will/may offer constructive criticism.

Anyway, welcome to the thread and please make sure you read page 1 for the rules and objectives.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,831
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:49am Aug 3, 2012 8:49am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Ditto! But I slid a # in there in between
My next short will be BIG hammer @ 1.2400. Can't believe this P.O.S is going up again!
  • #45,832
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:51am Aug 3, 2012 8:51am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Since I have lost month of my work in one hour, I now need to work with hands a bit so I can pay the rent . But I have time to think of what is going on.

T
Just make sure it's legal.

GL bro.
  • #45,833
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:52am Aug 3, 2012 8:52am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
My next short will be BIG hammer @ 1.2400. Can't believe this P.O.S is going up again!
My hammer sitting @1.2430, but I have limits all the way up to my piledriver at 1.3080.

If we both hit it hard and can get PT to help, we could knock this thing back into reality!
  • #45,834
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:53am Aug 3, 2012 8:53am
Quoting Toodle Pip

By the way, idle curiosity, are any of you ex-traders by career or are the majority on here self taught? Just interested to know
Hours and hours and hours and hours..............................

GL
  • #45,835
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:55am Aug 3, 2012 8:55am
See.......
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  • #45,836
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:58am Aug 3, 2012 8:58am
Quoting Gofer Pips
See.......
I can't see anything bro. Crazy chart.


Edit: Ok I see the sell limits now.
  • #45,837
  • Aug 3, 2012 9:01am Aug 3, 2012 9:01am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
I can't see anything bro. Crazy chart.


Edit: Ok I see the sell limits now.

I definitely do not color inside the lines!
  • #45,838
  • Aug 3, 2012 9:03am Aug 3, 2012 9:03am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
My next short will be BIG hammer @ 1.2400. Can't believe this P.O.S is going up again!
Well it's not exactly a face ripping rally but it is certainly a Euro positive move.. Apart from CAD and AUD rallying on oil gains, the USD is pretty much neutral.

This is most probably due to Euro-Hopium spurred on by the EFSF looking for banks to re-finance its sovereign bond purchases... an indication that they are gearing up to get started. This in turn drives speculation that all is good in Euro-buttf**k-Land. Short dated Spanish and Italian bonds are being bought up at bargain basement prices so that brings capital flow back into the Euro, and the result is what you see on your charts.

This all sucks for anybody short the Euro right now as it is gaining across the board. The only question now is what the market figures is a true market value of the short dated bonds. Once that level is hit, then the down trend resumes.

As you can see from the charts below, Italian 10 year is still at or near 6% and Spanish 10 Year is still at or near 7%

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,839
  • Aug 3, 2012 9:06am Aug 3, 2012 9:06am
Quoting CurrencyMan
That is very good point. Wait for it and watch the MONEY FLOW as well.

The Dow Futures are UP 121 and the Yield on the 2 Year Us Bonds is .24% with the Yield on the 10 Year US Bonds at 1.54% and the spread is 130 Basis Points.

We have RISK ON with Oil up and ALL Equity markets up.

When North America Equity markets open at 9:30 AM the MONEY FLOW FACTOR STARTS in Earnest.

USD/JPY is 78.65 and EUR/JPY is 96.34

Watch CORRELATION between EUR/JPY and EUR/USD depending on movement in USD/JPY.

Any Questions ?
ISM Better then expected
EUR/JPY up last hour
EUR/USD also up
USD/JPY slightly down last hour

will this mean Risk on is back for a while?

BTW looking at next week calender i see that
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks could he send the markets down again
now that with these numbers of today QE3 is less likely to happen in the US?
  • #45,840
  • Aug 3, 2012 9:09am Aug 3, 2012 9:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well it's not exactly a face ripping rally but it is certainly a Euro positive move.. Apart from CAD and AUD rallying on oil gains, the USD is pretty much neutral.

This is most probably due to Euro-Hopium spurred on by the EFSF looking for banks to re-finance its sovereign bond purchases... an indication that they are gearing up to get started. This in turn drives speculation that all is good in Euro-buttf**k-Land. Short dated Spanish and Italian bonds are being bought up at bargain basement prices so that brings capital flow back into the Euro,...
I was monitoring this as well, but only the 10yr.
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