Thanks, but that's dessert.
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.â€
- #45,643
- Aug 2, 2012 5:28pm Aug 2, 2012 5:28pm
alrighty gotta look for another DXY provider, would prefer actual values vs. FXCM's way of calculating though the TA should be the same
- #45,644
- Edited 10:06pm Aug 2, 2012 9:50pm | Edited 10:06pm
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,134 Posts
The end is near! 
(E/U 5m pennant)
(E/U 5m pennant)
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
- #45,645
- Edited 11:11pm Aug 2, 2012 10:00pm | Edited 11:11pm
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,134 Posts
E/U 1hr, check the green trendline, the last uptrend.
Also look where the bounce happened from 1.2170. Green trendline and down channel from 1.2690 after that short squeeze at the end of the 2nd quarter (June 29th I think)
Purple trendline from 1.3280, first test today (or yesterday rather) and failed miserably.
Coincidence that it happened right during Draghi Event?
Edit: Lows for today also bounced off the yellow line, which is 2615 January 2012 to 2287 June 1st
Also look where the bounce happened from 1.2170. Green trendline and down channel from 1.2690 after that short squeeze at the end of the 2nd quarter (June 29th I think)
Purple trendline from 1.3280, first test today (or yesterday rather) and failed miserably.
Coincidence that it happened right during Draghi Event?
Edit: Lows for today also bounced off the yellow line, which is 2615 January 2012 to 2287 June 1st
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
- #45,646
- Aug 2, 2012 10:31pm Aug 2, 2012 10:31pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
E/U 1hr, check the green trendline, the last uptrend.
Also look where the bounce happened from 1.2170. Green trendline and down channel from 1.2690 after that short squeeze at the end of the 2nd quarter (June 29th I think)
Purple trendline from 1.3280, first test today and failed miserably.
Coincidence that it happened right during Draghi Event?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #45,648
- Edited 11:30pm Aug 2, 2012 11:06pm | Edited 11:30pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Good morning everyone.
It's NFP day so there is not much to say other than the usual.
The economist expectation is for +100K
Last month the figure came in at +80K vs expectation of +90K
All the employment related data released since last month indicates a slight uptick in net job creation due to a big drop in government layoffs and a consistent but small reduction in jobless claims. However, the manufacturing sector has taken a bit of a hit.
A few things to keep in mind today are:
1. It is August and liquidity in the markets is thin due to summer holidays.
2. The hype surrounding central bank intervention has vaporized.
3. Regardless of the risk-on/risk-off phenomenon, a good NFP number is USD positive due to the US being seen as a good investment. A bad one might also be USD positive as capital seeks safety. Anything seen as USD positive will surely be E/U negative... or at least that is how I am seeing it right now.
Overall, the best pair to trade in NFP is USD/JPY. Buy on a positive result and sell on a negative result. This has been the only consistent predictable trade in the last few years. All other pairs have broken their correlation to the NFP release... at least for now anyway.
Technically, the E/U pair is a bit stretched to the downside so fresh shorts at these levels are not something I would advocate. I am already sufficiently levered up on my shorts, but I would not hesitate to add more should we get a push upwards. Good levels to short from are (in my opinion):
1. 1.2220 (previous support turned resistance)
2. 1.2235 (38.2% fibo of yesterdays range, combined with the weekly and daily pivots).
3. 1.2268 (50% fibo of yesterdays range)
4. 1.2300 (61.8% fibo of yesterdays range)
I will be holding an NFP contest later today so start thinking of your number, but don't post it until I let you know.
Best of luck to all today. Let's nail this sucker.
ADD: A note on the side of caution... The inverse head/Shoulders pattern on H4 is not yet invalidated. An E/U rally on some surprise hopiumized news could take price up towards the 1.2440 neckline and a breach of that could propel price up to the 1.27xx zone. Based on the underlying fundamentals and general market sentiment, it is highly unlikely, but don't dismiss the possibility.
E/U M15
E/U H4
It's NFP day so there is not much to say other than the usual.
The economist expectation is for +100K
Last month the figure came in at +80K vs expectation of +90K
All the employment related data released since last month indicates a slight uptick in net job creation due to a big drop in government layoffs and a consistent but small reduction in jobless claims. However, the manufacturing sector has taken a bit of a hit.
A few things to keep in mind today are:
1. It is August and liquidity in the markets is thin due to summer holidays.
2. The hype surrounding central bank intervention has vaporized.
3. Regardless of the risk-on/risk-off phenomenon, a good NFP number is USD positive due to the US being seen as a good investment. A bad one might also be USD positive as capital seeks safety. Anything seen as USD positive will surely be E/U negative... or at least that is how I am seeing it right now.
Overall, the best pair to trade in NFP is USD/JPY. Buy on a positive result and sell on a negative result. This has been the only consistent predictable trade in the last few years. All other pairs have broken their correlation to the NFP release... at least for now anyway.
Technically, the E/U pair is a bit stretched to the downside so fresh shorts at these levels are not something I would advocate. I am already sufficiently levered up on my shorts, but I would not hesitate to add more should we get a push upwards. Good levels to short from are (in my opinion):
1. 1.2220 (previous support turned resistance)
2. 1.2235 (38.2% fibo of yesterdays range, combined with the weekly and daily pivots).
3. 1.2268 (50% fibo of yesterdays range)
4. 1.2300 (61.8% fibo of yesterdays range)
I will be holding an NFP contest later today so start thinking of your number, but don't post it until I let you know.
Best of luck to all today. Let's nail this sucker.
ADD: A note on the side of caution... The inverse head/Shoulders pattern on H4 is not yet invalidated. An E/U rally on some surprise hopiumized news could take price up towards the 1.2440 neckline and a breach of that could propel price up to the 1.27xx zone. Based on the underlying fundamentals and general market sentiment, it is highly unlikely, but don't dismiss the possibility.
E/U M15
E/U H4
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #45,649
- Aug 2, 2012 11:19pm Aug 2, 2012 11:19pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #45,650
- Aug 2, 2012 11:22pm Aug 2, 2012 11:22pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #45,651
- Aug 2, 2012 11:29pm Aug 2, 2012 11:29pm
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,134 Posts
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
Morning all... Thanks foe the update PT 
I already have set limit orders in the market as per my post last night... Will get on with other things now till NFP time but will have a slanted eye on price movement.
Good luck to all
I already have set limit orders in the market as per my post last night... Will get on with other things now till NFP time but will have a slanted eye on price movement.
Good luck to all
Cheers!!
- #45,653
- Aug 2, 2012 11:46pm Aug 2, 2012 11:46pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Great charts PT and thanks for the recommendations.
Did you say yesterday you hit your annual profit target? If so, congrats, must feel really good.
Personally I will be surprised if it passes 1.2210/20, RSI on 4hr is nowhere near oversold, and on lower TFs are overbought.
Thats due to the spike up during Draghi Event, without that we would be very oversold (well as far as momentum indicators go anyway)
As for my annual target, the answer is yes. The month of May clinched it for me. It was a fantastic month as I was heavily levered short at the time
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #45,654
- Aug 2, 2012 11:48pm Aug 2, 2012 11:48pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Morning all... Thanks foe the update PT
I already have set limit orders in the market as per my post last night... Will get on with other things now till NFP time but will have a slanted eye on price movement.
Good luck to all
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #45,655
- Aug 3, 2012 12:17am Aug 3, 2012 12:17am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: AL -a reVerse psyChology | 265 Posts
Excellent.
Despite my prior belief that we may see some profit taking, it looks like the market wants to prove me wrong today coz it's looking very heavy on the Euro. However, the USD does not seem to be making much progress and equities/commodities are recovering. I guess it's just a Euro bashing day. Let's see how far it goes.
Just go through the pages and saw this post and thank you. Yep .... a lesson for Mr Draghi.
- #45,656
- Aug 3, 2012 12:21am Aug 3, 2012 12:21am
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,134 Posts
Morning R2R. Yes I believe that a move above 1.2220 is a bit unlikely, but I suspect we're gonna get a deluge of verbal diarrhea in response to yesterday's Draghi Event followed by a surge in Spanish and Italian bond yields. Such verbal diarrhea could drive short term sentiment. So, caution is the word of the day.
As for my annual target, the answer is yes. The month of May clinched it for me. It was a fantastic month as I was heavily levered short at the time
Have you taken a lot of profit since then? Or is most still targeting your full TP (floating?)
It's goodnight for me, won't be trading London but I will try to be here for NFP.
Difficult for me to see London not smashing this, especially if we get to 2220 (almost a 100 pip retrace)
Good luck everyone.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
- #45,657
- Aug 3, 2012 12:21am Aug 3, 2012 12:21am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Hi PT - I trust you enjoyed tasty fish by a calm sea 
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #45,658
- Aug 3, 2012 12:25am Aug 3, 2012 12:25am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: AL -a reVerse psyChology | 265 Posts
Excellent.
Despite my prior belief that we may see some profit taking, it looks like the market wants to prove me wrong today coz it's looking very heavy on the Euro. However, the USD does not seem to be making much progress and equities/commodities are recovering. I guess it's just a Euro bashing day. Let's see how far it goes.
Just go through the pages looking for any unread pages and saw this post . Thank you PT . Yesterday was a lesson for Mr Draghi .
- #45,660
- Aug 3, 2012 12:33am Aug 3, 2012 12:33am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Good morning Islander,
You are ahead of us .....
Edit: first short of the morning at 2204......lunch money - I hope!
Trading Levels with WRBs