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Quick and Dirty EOD

  • #401
  • Aug 2, 2012 9:04am Aug 2, 2012 9:04am
Quoting poacher
Sir, can you possibly help me also? Ihave been looking for a daily trend method and I get up sometimes and loose it all.can you tell me your secret? I'm trying to supplement my retirement for my wife and I not to well! Thank you and the best to you! If you doon't respond I understand.
I would have sent this to you in a PM but after I thought about it for a bit, I thought this should be posted for everyone to read and think about because trading is not the road to easy money that many would have you believe it to be. While it is true a great deal of money can be made you really have to be prepared for the ride.

FX is a huge market and there is an unbelievable amount of hype that goes with it not to mention unscrupulous system sellers and people that will paint a rosy picture about trading but all they really want is to part you from your money.

Trading is something that should only be done with risk capitol, money that you can afford to lose.

I would be extremely hesitant to suggest it as a supplement to your present income, I know how enticing the markets are and how easy it seems it should be when you look at past charts then you place what should an obvious winning trade and it just does not go as planned. it can become very frustrating, then you place another and try to get that loss back only to have it blow up on you too, this can become a death spiral of revenge trades.

I do not trade for a living, I have a business and trade on the side to build an account for later.

To be quite honest it is not an easy road, and to have an account that would generate an income you would need a sizable one because there will always be losses, you may have months in a row of losses, the year may come out in the black but you have to be able to sustain periods of being in the red and this of course calls for budgeting of your resources.

I am not saying it is not possible to do, it's just that trading for a living is VERY different than what you have been led to believe.

You are not going to make a living on a 500 or 1000 dollar account. or even 10,000 dollar account... to even attempt it would require you to trade at a leverage that with only a few losing trades in a row you would likely blow up your account.

Sorry to be such a realist here but I felt it was important you should consider these things.

I have also sent you a PM.

.
  • #402
  • Aug 2, 2012 9:12am Aug 2, 2012 9:12am
Quoting tradestar1
I would have sent this to you in a PM but after I thought about it for a bit, I thought this should be posted for everyone to read and think about because trading is not the road to easy money that many would have you believe it to be. While it is true a great deal of money can be made you really have to be prepared for the ride.

FX is a huge market and there is an unbelievable amount of hype that goes with it not to mention unscrupulous system sellers and people that will paint a rosy picture about trading but all they really want is to part you...

Good advice Tradestar. Thanks for your insights.
  • #403
  • Aug 2, 2012 9:24am Aug 2, 2012 9:24am
T/P hit on Eur/Aud for 280 pips. Back in the green for the week.
  • #404
  • Aug 2, 2012 9:25am Aug 2, 2012 9:25am
Samer! We are not worthy, welcome to the thread
  • #405
  • Edited 11:41am Aug 2, 2012 9:32am | Edited 11:41am
Regarding trading correlated pairs... While there is some variance in the correlation, if you intend to trade them adjust your risk accordingly.

If you place 1% on 2 correlated pairs you are effectively applying 2%...
So instead of that consider the strongest pair and place the higher position on it though maybe not 2% perhaps 1.5% .... trading is ALL about risk management and probabilities. So keep them both in your favor.

Good trading to you.

A book you might want to read on risk management is by Van Tharp.
"The Definitive Guide to Position Sizing".

It is a very dry read but worth the effort....

.
  • #406
  • Aug 2, 2012 9:37am Aug 2, 2012 9:37am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Samer! We are not worthy, welcome to the thread

thank you my friend ,
  • #407
  • Aug 2, 2012 9:45am Aug 2, 2012 9:45am
Anybody who has been trying this since this thread started...how many times after your pended order was hit, and it's trade opened did it move into positive territory, and by how many average pips?
Since you are trading a breakout of a previous supportresistance, I think if it moves, say 15 or 20 pips almost everytime into profit, it may be very profitable to just trade with a bit higher lots and TP that early, with relatively small SL, with RR of still 1:2 or 1:3...just an idea, that might work if the trades go this way most of the time.
Too close for pips, switching to points.
  • #408
  • Aug 2, 2012 10:05am Aug 2, 2012 10:05am
Quoting Thepipster
Anybody who has been trying this since this thread started...how many times after your pended order was hit, and it's trade opened did it move into positive territory, and by how many average pips?
Since you are trading a breakout of a previous supportresistance, I think if it moves, say 15 or 20 pips almost everytime into profit, it may be very profitable to just trade with a bit higher lots and TP that early, with relatively small SL, with RR of still 1:2 or 1:3...just an idea, that might work if the trades go this way most of the time.


Pipster,

I've been trading this since Hugh started the thread (few days after). Often times the order will trigger and then go against initially. Many times trades will have buy stops stacked below our entry (on a down move) to close out there positions. Others will have buy limits in place. So often times you'll get a jerk back up. Since we're trading in the direction of the monthly though, we hope to see that price continue down.

You gotta give a daily trade (especially in line with a monthly trend) some space to breath.... IMO
  • #409
  • Aug 2, 2012 10:10am Aug 2, 2012 10:10am
Quoting spyderman
Pipster,

I've been trading this since Hugh started the thread (few days after). Often times the order will trigger and then go against initially. Many times trades will have buy stops stacked below our entry (on a down move) to close out there positions. Others will have buy limits in place. So often times you'll get a jerk back up. Since we're trading in the direction of the monthly though, we hope to see that price continue down.

You gotta give a daily trade (especially in line with a monthly trend) some space to breath.... IMO ...
Thanks!
Too close for pips, switching to points.
  • #410
  • Aug 2, 2012 11:37am Aug 2, 2012 11:37am

Stopped out on AUD/USD and EUR/CAD....

  • #411
  • Aug 2, 2012 11:39am Aug 2, 2012 11:39am
Quoting lucariga

Stopped out on AUD/USD and EUR/CAD....

Yes, a choppy day today. Eurusd put in a 200 pip hourly candle! Not easy to avoid some losses in this sort of environment.
  • #412
  • Aug 2, 2012 11:45am Aug 2, 2012 11:45am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Yes, a choppy day today. Eurusd put in a 200 pip hourly candle! Not easy to avoid some losses in this sort of environment.
Yeah that spike got me too.......
  • #413
  • Aug 2, 2012 3:32pm Aug 2, 2012 3:32pm
Quoting samer960
thank you my friend ,
For anybody reading this, if you ever read a post by Samer960 then believe what he says because he is a trading god! I used to read him on the legendary silent service method thread and he is an awesome trader.

Really glad you stopped by samer, pop in again soon.
  • #414
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:26pm Aug 2, 2012 4:26pm
Hey guys, do you replace a pending on AUD/USD on the same candle even if we hit SL today?
  • #415
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:35pm Aug 2, 2012 4:35pm
Quoting lucariga
Hey guys, do you replace a pending on AUD/USD on the same candle even if we hit SL today?
Wait until Sunday night, tomorrow is non farm payroll day and will probably be another choppy day. Better to be cautious. Of course August is never the best month anyway.
  • #416
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:47pm Aug 2, 2012 4:47pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Wait until Sunday night, tomorrow is non farm payroll day and will probably be another choppy day. Better to be cautious. Of course August is never the best month anyway.
Ya, better to stay out for NFP...
No problem for august cause I think We need to test the system, and if it works out on hard conditions imagine what it can do on normal markets.....

Good night all here is almost midnight...
  • #417
  • Aug 2, 2012 5:23pm Aug 2, 2012 5:23pm
Quoting lucariga
Ya, better to stay out for NFP...
No problem for august cause I think We need to test the system, and if it works out on hard conditions imagine what it can do on normal markets.....

Good night all here is almost midnight...
Yes, good point about august. If we get positive results now, then we're made for the rest of the year.
  • #418
  • Aug 2, 2012 8:35pm Aug 2, 2012 8:35pm
Thanks Hugh for starting this thread.
After several years of so-so trading trying to make the FAST buck trading the shorter time frames, I finally learned my lesson and decided to trade only the Daily (and occasionally H4) time frame.
Since I made the move, my trading has been significantly better and much more enjoyable.

Thanks for another great way to trade on the Daily charts.

I am trading live and currently in the AudChf, EurAud, and Audnzd
with several more pending.

Cheers !
  • #419
  • Aug 2, 2012 8:53pm Aug 2, 2012 8:53pm
I am currently doing a manual backtest of the original system. This time the only different thing I am doing is replacing the monthly trend ema's. In its place, I am using the weekly candles. If the close of the last completed weekly candle is higher than the open of the candle before it, then I will look for long signals for the current week. Vice versa for shorts. If the close does not break the open of the previous candle, then there is no change in trend. By the way, in this test I am using Hugh's original entry and not the one I was testing before. The only different thing I am doing in this test is using a different method for trend. My reason in doing so is to catch long moves in a short monthly trend and short moves in a long monthly trend. I also wanted to try this simple price action for determining trend which I learned from Pipeasy's millipede thread.

So far I have completed a backtest on the Eur/Usd from July 2010 through the end of february 2011. The results look promising with a 50% win rate and +1,449 pips. I am going to test 16 more months of data and then post those results as soon as I can. I can't wait to see how it holds up over the ranging period from February 2012 through April 2012.
  • #420
  • Aug 2, 2012 11:29pm Aug 2, 2012 11:29pm
Quoting HammerDown
Thanks Hugh for starting this thread.
After several years of so-so trading trying to make the FAST buck trading the shorter time frames, I finally learned my lesson and decided to trade only the Daily (and occasionally H4) time frame.
Since I made the move, my trading has been significantly better and much more enjoyable.

Thanks for another great way to trade on the Daily charts.

I am trading live and currently in the AudChf, EurAud, and Audnzd
with several more pending.

Cheers !
No worries, glad you like it.
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